SMM, July 13 – Metals Market: In overnight trading last Friday, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the declines with a 2.07% drop, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% rise. The remaining metals all had changes within 1%. The main alumina contract fell 0.4%, and the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.78%. In overnight trading last Friday, ferrous metals fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel rose 0.03%, and iron ore rose 0.27%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. In overnight trading last Friday, for precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly edge up of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%, and SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations of a hawkish turn in Fed monetary policy and a stronger US dollar that continues to pressure gold prices. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast from $4,864 per ounce to $4,560, and its 2027 forecast from $5,000 to $4,925. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a range of $3,800 to $4,700 for the rest of 2026, ending the year near $4,750. (Wall Street CN) As of 7:17 on July 11, last Friday’s overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestically: [State Council Executive Meeting: Promote the Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Across the Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software and Hardware Breakthroughs] According to CCTV, Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting that studied work related to cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting pointed out the need to promote the scaled development of emerging pillar industries across the entire chain, strengthen basic research and breakthroughs in key software and hardware, and accelerate technological iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also highlighted the need to optimize regulatory models and guide localities to develop according to their own conditions and in differentiated ways. (Jinshi Data APP) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Implement Temporary Export Ban Management on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement, stating that in accordance with relevant provisions of the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China, they have decided to implement temporary export ban management on helium (Customs commodity code: 2804290010). This announcement takes effect from the date of issuance, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jinshi Data APP) [National Electricity Load Hits a Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] Since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to develop towards new and better directions, with end-user electrification levels steadily rising. Combined with recent high temperatures in many parts of the country, electricity loads have rapidly climbed. On July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, peaking at 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW from the historical extreme. Since the start of summer, the south China regional power grid and multiple provincial grids, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian and Shaanxi, have set new record highs in electricity load more than 20 times cumulatively. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year were driven primarily by three factors: First, steady growth in industrial electricity consumption. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing are booming, and electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage and computing equipment continues to expand. Second, relatively rapid growth in service sector electricity consumption. Since the beginning of this year, the YoY growth rate of electricity consumption in the battery swapping and charging service industry and the internet data service industry has both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures have pushed up electricity loads. As residents’ living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load in the national total is approaching 30%, and in some provinces it exceeds 40%. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: The share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point per annum by 2028] The National Energy Administration issued the “Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028).” The plan proposes that, by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point per annum; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units will be reasonably controlled, and the proportion of coal-fired capacity achieving the current energy efficiency benchmark level will strive to increase by 15 percentage points; a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil regions will be established; support will be given to establishing a number of zero-carbon industrial parks, with significant progress made in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries and continuously improved levels of green energy use. The plan proposes vigorously promoting energy saving and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW class and below where conditions permit, while encouraging the construction of replacement units meeting next-generation coal power standards; promote the implementation of a number of supercritical/ultra-supercritical cross-generational upgrades and retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired units. Support will be given to implementing zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) retrofit construction for units where conditions allow, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. It will implement a batch of coal power, gas power and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy in achieving integrated carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupled peak shaving and peak supply via thermal storage and energy storage, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, posting a weekly gain of 0.05%. The Fed’s semi-annual report showed that in 2026, US economic activity maintained robust expansion overall, primarily driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investments, and production capacity continued to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and the external economy was weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs, resulting in sluggish growth. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity increasing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, while small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and firmed further in spring, with asset prices above historical norms. The financial system was resilient overall, with ample bank reserves, and the private credit market continued to function normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored near the 2% target, although the uncertainty brought by the Iran conflict was a primary risk. (Jin10 Data App) The report noted that the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about twice the 2% target as of this May. This was also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will testify before the House and Senate committees on Tuesday and Wednesday this week respectively, undergoing routine mid-year review on monetary policy. (Wall Street CN) According to CME “Fed Watch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data App) Other currencies: According to a Reuters report, three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan’s thinking said the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue pushing ahead with the rate hike process. One source said, “With oil prices falling, downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat. But the high cost of past imports will continue to exert upward pressure on prices.” Two other sources expressed similar views. They also stated that the BOJ may raise its FY2026 economic growth forecast in its July quarterly report and will continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from a weak yen and strong AI demand partially offset the impact of falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data App) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the eurozone savings rate falls to pre-pandemic levels, it could unlock goods and services demand worth approximately 1% of GDP. In Q1 of this year, household savings stood at 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the last quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, a level which could add nearly 2% to eurozone GDP. Consumption is expected to remain weak as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, they said a shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the foundation for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years. (Jin10 Data App) On the macro front: This week, China will release data including June trade balance in US dollar terms, June trade balance, June YoY exports and imports, Q2 GDP YoY, June total retail sales YoY, June industrial added value above designated size YoY, June nationwide electricity consumption YoY, and June nationwide electricity consumption. The US will release data including June unadjusted CPI YoY, June seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, June seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, June unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July NY Empire State manufacturing index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June NFIB small business optimism index, ADP employment change weekly for the week ending June 27, July NAHB housing market index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts total, June building permits total, June import price index MoM, June industrial output MoM, July preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The Eurozone will release data including May industrial output MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, June final CPI YoY, and June final CPI MoM. The UK will release data including May three-month GDP MoM, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial output MoM. Data such as Canada’s May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision as of July 15 will also be released. In addition, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration will release nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. China’s refined oil products will see a new pricing adjustment window open. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the “Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report”; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs at the hearing on the “Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.” On July 16, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil side: Overnight last Friday, oil prices on both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude rose 4.11% and Brent crude rose 4.3%, together ending a prior four-week losing streak. Markets are still pinning hopes on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for navigation. Notably, after the US and Iran conflict escalated this week, the weekly oil price shed its four-week losing streak, gaining over 4% for the week. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform “Truth Social,” stating that Iran wanted to continue “negotiations” with the US, and the US had agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also said the US had clearly informed Iran that the ceasefire was over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said a new round of US and Iran negotiations may be held in Switzerland this week. However, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said the claim that Iran and the US would hold a new round of talks this week was untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never sought to negotiate with the US but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wall Street CN) CCTV reporters learned from the Iranian side that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, especially the current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released on the 10th by international market services firm Kpler showed that on July 9, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz area fell to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking the second consecutive day of declining strait traffic volume. Kpler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. “The renewed escalation of US-Iran military confrontation has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term.” (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks to the forecasts of $96/bbl and $85/bbl for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 respectively are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report (specific release time of the monthly report is pending, typically published around 18-21 Beijing time).

SMM, July 10: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose, with SHFE copper up 1.67%, SHFE aluminum up 0.63%, SHFE lead edging down, SHFE zinc up 1.34%, SHFE tin up 2.18%, and SHFE nickel up 1.1%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.57%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 2.74%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 2.28%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.74%, rebar edged up, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel fell 0.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.38%, LME aluminum rose 0.28%, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc rose 0.39%, LME tin rose 0.7%, and LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.12% and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.15%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract rose 3.48%. Additionally, by midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.53%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.65%. As of midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures contract rose 1.09% to 2,415 points. As of 11:41 on July 10, midday futures overview: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainly traded at 24,420-24,910 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,540-24,970 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,430-24,860 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0-10 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,010 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 60-130 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market... Macro Front Domestic: [National Energy Administration: By 2028, Non-Fossil Energy Consumption Share to Increase by About 1 Percentage Point Annually] The National Energy Administration issued the "Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026-2028)." It proposes that by 2028, the non-fossil energy consumption share will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; reasonably control coal consumption of coal-fired power units, striving to raise the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current energy efficiency benchmark standards by 15 percentage points; build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining and oil areas; support the construction of a number of zero-carbon parks, achieve significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improve green energy use. It proposed vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. A batch of eligible coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW and below will be shut down in a prudent and orderly manner, and the construction of replacement units is encouraged according to the requirements of new-generation coal-fired power ; a batch of 600,000 kW coal-fired power units will undergo ultra-supercritical cross-generation upgrading and retrofitting. Support will be given to eligible units for the co-firing of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuels and the retrofitting and construction of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). After retrofitting and construction, the carbon emission level per kilowatt-hour should be reduced by about 10%. A number of projects integrating coal-fired power, gas-fired power and new energy will be implemented, supporting the coupling of coal-fired power and new energy through thermal energy storage and other energy storage for peak shaving and peak support, integrated collection and transmission, thereby achieving the effect of integrated carbon reduction. (Jin10 Data APP) [China’s Road Transport Capacity Continues to Expand, New Energy Truck Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "2026 China Road Transport Capacity Development Report" today (the 10th). According to the report, the road transport market underwent continuous adjustment and optimization in 2025, with the capacity structure accelerating its upgrade towards scale, specialization, and green development; enterprises saw improvements in their risk resilience and operational resilience. Survey data shows that in the current road freight transport capacity structure, internal combustion engine vehicles remain dominant, accounting for about 50%, but new energy vehicles have already formed an irreversible substitution trend in specific scenarios. Among the surveyed enterprises, the penetration rate of new energy trucks was 44.4%. Among enterprises that have already purchased new energy vehicles, 37.5% chose to "continue expanding the new energy fleet," and 37.5% chose to "maintain the current scale." (CCTV News) [New Breakthrough in Green Hydrogen: China Achieves Minute-Level Preparation of Platinum Group Metal Catalysts] Platinum group metal catalysts are core key materials supporting modern industries such as energy, chemical, and environmental sectors. Recently, a team led by Professor Hu Wenbin from Tianjin University proposed a "transient assembly" strategy, developing a millisecond-scale periodic heat pulse technology that achieved ultra-fast synthesis and precise regulation of platinum group metal core-shell structure catalysts, opening up a completely new technical pathway for the atomically precise preparation of platinum group catalysts. The related results were published online in the international academic journal *Science* on July 10, Beijing time. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangdong: Plans to Accelerate Technological Breakthroughs in Key Frontier Fields Including 6G, Optical Communications, and Satellite Communications] Recently, the "Guangdong Province Information and Communication Industry 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)" was released to solicit public opinions. It mentioned supporting basic telecommunications enterprises in actively participating in provincial key R&D programs, leveraging strategic scientific and technological forces such as the Pengcheng National Laboratory and industry leaders to help Guangdong’s information and communication industry establish a sound whole-process innovation ecosystem, accelerating technological breakthroughs in key frontier fields including 6G, optical communications, satellite communications, quantum communications, and agentic communications, and strengthening research on new network architectures such as integrated space-ground networks and integrated communication-sensing-computing networks. Focus on cultivating and developing the new 6G track, vigorously promoting the R&D and industrialisation of core components such as next-generation digital baseband chips, RF front-end chips, and 6G modules, as well as next-generation network communication equipment. Conduct application technology research on the integration of quantum encryption with information communication networks and the convergence of quantum computing with classical computing, and achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as quantum computing, quantum materials, quantum precision measurement, quantum security, and critical core equipment. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operations led to a net withdrawal of 43 billion yuan on the day, and a net withdrawal of 416.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 43 billion yuan. During the week, the PBOC conducted 62 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations. With 678.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the week was 416.5 billion yuan. US dollar side: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 100.66. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.1%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 13.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Perli, manager of the New York Fed’s Open Market Account, said that the reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk may raise or lower purchase amounts depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that as Fed Chairman Warsh appoints a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest-rate control frameworks the committee may decide to pursue. The Fed began reserve management purchase operations last December, anticipating a rapid drain in reserves in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jin10 Data APP) Dallas Fed President Logan said that if the Federal Open Market Committee conducts open market operations through a voluntary central clearing mechanism, it would help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations and enhance the stability of US financial markets. Logan noted that such arrangements could improve the use of the Fed’s tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility. The facility is designed to provide liquidity to eligible financial institutions, but market usage remains low. Some believe that streamlining the clearing process could enhance its appeal. She also noted that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed and that financial markets must strike an appropriate balance between the returns and risks of leverage, as well as between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) The latest data showed that for the week ending July 4, which included the US Independence Day holiday, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000 and persisting near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the state of re-employment among the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, hitting a new high since March. Persistently low initial jobless claims, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labour market characterised by shrinking layoffs and a slowdown in hiring. (Wall Street CN) Data-wise: Today will see the release of figures including Germany's final CPI MoM for June, France's final CPI MoM for June, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment numbers, China's June M2 money supply YoY, China's new RMB loans for the first half of the year, and China's total social financing growth for the first half of the year. Also in focus: a speech by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan; and the provisional listing of SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the Nasdaq on July 10. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices for both benchmarks edged up, with WTI crude rising 0.25% and Brent crude gaining 0.21%. Technical-level talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, with the market closely watching how the US-Iran situation unfolds. According to Fox News, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that Trump believes oil prices will remain at low levels in the future. India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has approved an expansion of the country's strategic petroleum reserves, highlighting efforts to strengthen energy resilience following the shock of the Iran conflict. According to a document, the board of India's largest oil and gas producer has approved the addition of 1.75 million mt of national crude oil reserve capacity in Mangalore, Karnataka. Specific costs and a timetable have yet to be announced. Upon completion, the project will increase the reserves managed by the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. The company currently operates underground storage facilities at three locations on the east and west coasts with a total capacity of 5.33 million mt. In addition, two new sites are under construction that will add 6.5 million mt of storage space. ONGC stated in Friday's filing that the project is of "national importance" and that related supporting facilities will be developed under the directive of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ►] ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 9: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.22%, SHFE lead fell 0.09%, SHFE zinc fell 0.65%, SHFE tin fell 1.43%. SHFE nickel rose 0.51%. In addition, alumina most-traded futures rose 0.22%, while the main aluminum alloy contract fell 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals were mostly higher. Stainless steel fell 1.03%, iron ore rose 0.54%, rebar rose 0.16%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.23%, the most-traded coke contract rose 0.26%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.6%, LME aluminum fell 0.02%, LME lead rose 0.19%. LME zinc fell 1.2%. LME tin fell 1.54%. LME nickel rose 0.89%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.7%, COMEX silver fell 4.3%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.88%. As of 7:12 a.m. July 9, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Xi Jinping attends National Science and Technology Awards Conference, Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and 11th National Congress of China Association for Science and Technology, delivering important speech] Xi Jinping attended the National Science and Technology Awards Conference, the Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and the 11th National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, and delivered an important speech. Xi stressed the need to deeply integrate technological innovation and industrial innovation, remove hurdles to accelerate the transformation of science and technology into real productivity. Scientific and technological innovation should be application-oriented, while industrial innovation should raise scientific questions. Strengthen the construction of a national technology transfer system, create diversified application scenarios and high-level industrial clusters, and promote the application and iterative upgrading of self-developed technologies and products. Improve the intellectual property protection system. Establish a sci-tech financial system compatible with sci-tech innovation. (CCTV News) [PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Committee meeting: Strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises] The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its Q2 2026 regular meeting. The meeting analyzed domestic and international economic and financial situations, noting that the current external environment is more complex and volatile, global economic growth momentum is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions are frequent, major economies' performances are diverging, and inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments remain uncertain. China's economy has been generally stable, improving in quality, and making new progress in high-quality development, but still faces problems and challenges such as stronger supply than demand, structural divergence, and external shocks. The meeting called for continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leveraging the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools, enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices. The meeting pointed out the need to guide large banks to play the main role of financial services for the real economy, push small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, and enhance banks' capital strength. Make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, optimize tool management, effectively write the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Continue to provide sound financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Maintain stable operation of financial markets. Effectively promote high-level two-way opening-up of the financial sector, and improve economic and financial management capabilities and risk prevention capabilities under open conditions. [CPCA: June passenger vehicle exports reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY] According to CPCA data, June passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY, and up 11.5% MoM, accounting for 37% of total passenger vehicle manufacturer sales (36% last month, 19% in the same period of 2025). New energy vehicles accounted for 56.9% of total exports, up 16 percentage points YoY. In June, exports of Chinese domestic brands reached 763,000 units, up 86% YoY; exports of joint venture and luxury brands reached 114,000 units, up 61% YoY. (From Wall Street See APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 101.07. The Fed's June meeting minutes showed officials' growing concerns about high inflation. Although officials worried that rising prices were spreading and might require interest rate hikes, they followed the footsteps of Fed Chairman Warsh in issuing a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for an immediate rate hike. But the broader discussion appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation could ease back to the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where inflation would persist. "Almost all" of those espousing the latter view thought rate hikes would be necessary in that case. The minutes said: "Participants generally agreed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained high, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had eased." In the end, "all participants" supported keeping rates unchanged. Policymakers also considered Fed Chairman Warsh's proposal to end "forward guidance" and reduce comments on future rate decisions in the statement. "Most participants noted they saw advantages to shortening the statement," the minutes said, while "most participants" supported removing language implying the Fed's next policy move was likely to be a rate cut. The alternative approved by the Fed in June stripped out any interest rate guidance altogether, consistent with Warsh's general desire to avoid committing to rate moves. At the June meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the latest projections showed a general belief that rate hikes could come this year, with 9 of 18 officials expecting a modest rise in rates by end-2026. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.1%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 17.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include China's June CPI YoY, China's June PPI YoY, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US existing home sales annualized for June. Also watch for: Fed release of monetary policy meeting minutes; ECB release of June monetary policy meeting minutes; and remarks from FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures continued their gains from the previous session and surged further, with WTI crude up 6.13% and Brent crude up 7.17%. US President Trump said the temporary ceasefire with Iran had ended, geopolitical risk premium returned to oil prices, market fears of crude supply disruption quickly intensified, and international oil prices jumped. (Wall Street See) According to Xinhua, US President Trump said on July 8 during the NATO summit in Turkey that US forces "are likely to hit Iran hard again tonight." Xinhua also reported that on July 8, Trump said at the NATO summit he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "has ended." Wall Street See noted that shortly afterward, Trump said the escalation would calm down quickly, seemingly adding fuel to the geopolitical fire before trying to put it out. Earlier, the US had announced the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales and launched a new round of military strikes against Iran. However, an unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories somewhat eased geopolitical risk premiums. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said: "Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially come to a halt, which speaks louder than any statement from Washington or Tehran about the current risk perception." (Wall Street See) US President Trump said we'll see if we can keep oil prices low, we should keep oil prices low. We're now facing an oil oversupply. This situation will soon end, and oil prices will fall. We will make the oil situation safer. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels, compared to Bloomberg user estimate of a 1 million barrel decline and analyst expectations of a 1.8678 million barrel decline, after a 3.775 million barrel decline the prior week. US commercial crude oil inventories increased for the first time since April, ending a streak of consecutive monthly declines, though they remain at their lowest level in about four years. (Wall Street See) In addition, the Russian government announced that the ban on diesel exports will remain in effect until July 31.

SMM News, July 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE copper down 0.12% and SHFE aluminum up 0.48%. SHFE lead fell 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 1.06%. SHFE tin fell 0.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.42%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.44%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.22%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.24%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract edged down. Ferrous metals were mostly in the red. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar was flat at 3,074 yuan/mt, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel rose 1.83%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.38%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, and LME lead fell 0.19%. LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin fell 0.92%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%. Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.57% and COMEX silver fell 1.48%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.83%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.3%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.72%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping container futures contract extended the previous trading day’s decline, falling a further 5.03% to 2,446.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 7, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to rise, while spot in South China was under pressure and weaker. Yesterday, the spot-futures price spread briefly strengthened sharply, coupled with the absolute price rising for four consecutive sessions to a higher level. With both elevated, most suppliers actively sold to cash in, and price cuts became increasingly common; some chose to hold prices firm but with little effect. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, and circulation loosened... Macro Front China: [World Bank Keeps Its 2026 China GDP Growth Forecast Unchanged] On July 7, the World Bank released the latest China Economic Update in Beijing. The report said that despite facing strong supply, weak demand, and shocks to global energy supplies, China’s economic growth overall maintained resilience, and China’s economic growth in 2026 is expected to be 4.4%. Compared with the previous update released in December last year, the growth forecast remained unchanged. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Resulted in a Net Drain of 59.5 billion yuan on the Day] Today, the PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As 69.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it resulted in a net drain of 59.5 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data APP) [John Lee: Hong Kong’s Gold Central Clearing System Begins Trial Operation Today; New RMB-Denominated Gold Futures Contracts Under Consideration] On July 7, John Lee announced that Hong Kong’s Gold Central Clearing System began trial operation today and that the development of new RMB-denominated gold futures contracts is under consideration. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited will sign a memorandum of understanding with the PBOC on cross-border RMB payment and clearing. The Hong Kong gold market saw a critical upgrade at the infrastructure level, with the gold clearing and settlement system officially launched on July 7. To support the new system and simultaneously invigorate the local gold futures market, HKEX announced a one-year fee waiver for gold futures, effective from July 7. (Wall Street CN) 》Click for details On the US dollar front: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.89. Fed Governor Waller stated that the US Fed would not deliberately maintain low interest rates to help the US government finance its fiscal deficit. Waller noted that the US labor market had stabilized, while inflation had re-accelerated, meaning the risk from inflation now exceeds the risk to employment—a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He pointed out that while he supported an interest rate cut last year due to labor market weakness, the policy focus should now shift back toward curbing inflation. The market’s attention has turned to the June CPI, due on July 14, the last critical inflation data before the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting. Although international oil prices have pulled back to around $70/barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to be significantly above the 2% target at year-end. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 74.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.7%. For September, the probability of the rate remaining unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 10.8%. (Jinshi Data APP) The US ISM Services PMI report showed that economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June. The Services PMI registered 54, marking the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory. Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, stated that the June Services PMI of 54 was down 0.5 from May’s 54.5. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory, falling 2.3 from May’s 57.7 to 55.4. The Prices Index dropped to 67.7 in June, a decrease of 3.6 from May’s 71.3, falling below 70 for the first time since February. The index has been above 60 for 19 consecutive months, with a 12-month average of 68. Diesel, gasoline, oil and related commodities were again cited as the items with the largest price increases in June, but some respondents also reported price declines. This may stem from differences in contract terms for these commodities across companies. Some respondents noted declines in payments for gasoline and diesel, but this was not a widespread phenomenon. We expect this situation to persist for several months as rising oil prices feed through supply chains, but assuming the recent progress in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continues, there should be some relief by autumn. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Japan’s Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Shironai Minoru, said media reports suggesting Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s government was trying to steer interest rates lower were completely inaccurate. Speaking at a regular press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday, Shironai said, “Reports that the government would encourage low interest rates as part of its fiscal expansion policies are groundless. If our intentions are not being accurately conveyed, we will work harder to foster understanding.” His remarks came as financial markets closely watch how Takaichi Sanae will implement her economic strategy through massive investment without adding to the already heavy debt burden. Shironai attended a Bank of Japan board meeting last month as a government representative, where policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate to 1%, the highest in 31 years. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM for May, the UK Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM for June, France’s trade balance for May, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending June 20, the US trade balance for May, and China’s foreign exchange reserves for June, among others. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the US Trade Representative’s office holds public hearings on a proposal to impose additional tariffs on 60 global economies; Samsung Electronics will release its Q2 earnings guidance. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both benchmark crude prices rose, with WTI up 0.54% and Brent up 0.61%. The brief window of US-Iran easing once again faces rupture, pushing oil prices higher. Markets are watching geopolitical developments and supply-demand outlook changes. The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continues to rebound. According to reports, a total of 160 vessels passed through the strait from Monday to Saturday last week, though the overall level remains far below pre-war norms. (Wall Street CN) As a surge in global supply intensifies competition for buyers, Saudi Arabia cut the official selling prices of its main crude grades for Asian customers for August by the most in at least 26 years. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco slashed the price of Arab Light crude for Asia for August by $11 per barrel, to a discount of $1.50 per barrel against the regional benchmark. The cut was larger than the $8 per barrel expected in a survey of institutions. Crude oil prices in the Middle East have recently declined. After resuming exports from the Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Aramco temporarily raised crude oil shipments to approximately 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Ras Tanura was the main loading port for Saudi crude oil exports. As the war blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude oil flows to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Previously, the OPEC+ producer group agreed to continue with a small production increase in August. Now, with shipping resuming in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, July 7: In the metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.01%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.28%, SHFE lead edged down 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.84%, and SHFE tin added 0.35%. SHFE nickel increased 0.41%. Furthermore, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.15%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel surged 2.34%, iron ore gained 0.27%, rebar edged up 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, while the most-traded coke contract lost 0.08%. In the overseas market overnight, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper and LME aluminum edged down, while LME lead fell 0.48%. LME zinc rose 1.07%, LME tin surged 1.51%, and LME nickel edged up 0.09%. In the precious metals market overnight : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver gained 2.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.15%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract lost 0.47%. As of 6:57 on July 7, the overnight closing prices were: Macro front Domestic side: [Foreign Ministry responds to popularity of Chinese heat-relief products among European consumers] In response to reports that Chinese-made heat-relief products such as air conditioners, fans, and multi-functional sun umbrellas have been gaining popularity among European consumers, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference on the 6th that products that meet demand and offer good quality at reasonable prices will naturally be welcomed. The trade structure between China and Europe is a natural result driven by market demand and based on complementary strengths. Facts have proven that in China-EU trade, consumers benefit from affordable goods and suppliers earn profits; it is not a matter of coercion but a two-way choice that brings shared benefits. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 100.87. The ISM Services PMI for June fell to 54.0 from 54.5 in May, slightly below the market forecast of 54.2 , staying above the 50 mark, indicating the services sector remained in expansion territory but the pace of growth slowed. Although business activity and new order growth cooled, the employment gauge improved significantly, while the prices paid index pulled back to a four-month low, reflecting easing cost pressures for businesses. However, firms remained cautious about their business outlook for the coming year, with many surveyed companies citing considerable uncertainty over the economic and geopolitical outlook. (Wall Street CN) Fed Governor Waller stated that the US labour market has stabilized while inflation has re-accelerated, and the current inflation risks now outweigh employment risks, a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He noted that last year he supported cutting interest rates due to weakness in the job market, but now the policy focus should shift back to containing inflation. Markets are now turning their attention to the June CPI release on July 14, the last key inflation data before the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. Although international oil prices have pulled back to around $70/barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to remain significantly above the 2% target by year-end. Markets anticipate the Fed will hike rates by September at the latest, with a roughly 25% probability of a July rate hike, as several officials have signaled further policy tightening. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cumulative rate hike is 25.7%. For September, the chance of rates staying unchanged is 42.9%, with a 46.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike and a 10.8% chance of a 50 bps hike. (Jin10 Data APP) CFTC data showed that as of June 30, global traders' bullish bets on the US dollar had climbed to nearly $40 billion, the highest level since 2015, extending the dollar's monthly rally driven by interest rate expectations. Markets bet that the Fed may keep rates higher or even hike again, pushing the dollar to a gain of about 2% in June. Analysts believe that expectations of Fed monetary tightening and US economic resilience have jointly supported the dollar, but some institutions note that recent softening in employment data could limit further upside. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of German industrial production m/m for May (seasonally adjusted), the UK Halifax house price index m/m for June (seasonally adjusted), French trade balance for May, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ended June 20, US trade balance for May, and China's foreign exchange reserves for June, among others. In addition, attention should be paid to: Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the US Trade Representative's Office holding a public hearing to review proposals for additional tariffs on 60 global economies; and Samsung Electronics releasing its Q2 earnings guidance. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged lower, with WTI down 0.13% and Brent down 0.15%. Saudi Arabia's significant cut in crude selling prices heightened oversupply concerns, weighing on international oil prices. This marked at least the largest official price reduction by Saudi Arabia in 26 years, and its first sale at a discount since the 2020 price war. This sparked worries about whether other Middle Eastern producers would be forced to follow suit with price cuts, as their official prices are expected to be announced in the coming days. OPEC+ also agreed to further raise the production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. Saudi Aramco slashed its August official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $11/barrel, the largest cut since at least 2000. As surging global supply intensified competition for buyers, Saudi Arabia cut its August official selling prices for key crude grades to Asian customers, the biggest reduction in at least 26 years. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude for Asia in August by $11/barrel, to a discount of $1.50/barrel against the regional benchmark, a deeper cut than the $8/barrel expected in a survey of institutions. Middle Eastern crude prices have already been declining. After resuming exports from the Persian Gulf port of Ras Tanura, Saudi Aramco once raised crude shipments to about 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Ras Tanura was the main loading port for Saudi crude exports. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the war, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude flows to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Earlier, the OPEC+ group agreed to continue with a small production increase in August. Now, as shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude inventories fell by about 6.2 million barrels last week to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983. This decline is part of the US plan to release a cumulative 172 million barrels of crude from the SPR previously committed. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading: