Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,892.5/mt, drifting lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, LME lead initially dipped before rebounding, touching a low of $1,880/mt before quickly surging to a high of $1,897/mt. It weakened near the close due to increased bearish positioning, ultimately closing at $1,884.5/mt, a decline of 0.29%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,700 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 15,760 yuan/mt early in the session. Due to bear position lightening, SHFE lead drifted lower, touching a low of 15,665 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 15,680 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.19%. On the macro front: On Thursday, it was reported that Iran's proposed Hormuz navigation agreement would ban the passage of hostile vessels. Meanwhile, as the market awaits guidance from non-farm payrolls data, a growing number of US Fed officials are talking about the option of near-term interest rate hikes. The US dollar index rebounded, momentarily reclaiming the 100 mark, and finally closed up 0.24% at 99.94. US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year yield near flat, closing at 4.679%; the 2-year US Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 4.258%. The DRC banned the export of copper concentrates and cobalt concentrates. World Gold Council: Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to the late 1970s cannot be ruled out, though this does not inherently imply a significant rise in gold. China Gold Association: China's gold production fell 14.62% YoY in H1 2026, while consumption grew 1.23%. DeepSeek plans to raise the overall pricing of its API services in the near term, with the increase expected to be substantial. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead lacked upward momentum and maintained a consolidative trend. Suppliers held prices firm when selling, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined from yesterday, with spot market transactions weakening in some regions. Currently, a north-south price divergence persists for primary lead smelters' shipments; mainstream producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, with actual transactions near parity. For secondary lead, smelters sold flexibly, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, widening from yesterday's discount level. Among downstream enterprises, some made just-in-time procurement, dampening overall market trading activity. Inventory: On August 6, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,125 mt to 428,425 mt. According to SMM, as of August 6, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions reached 70,600 mt, up 2,100 mt from July 30, but down 1,500 mt from August 3. Lead Price Forecast for Today: At the start of the week, lead prices plunged to their lowest in over three years, heightening risk-averse sentiment in the spot market. Lead smelters generally held back from selling at low prices, while downstream enterprises showed a mix of caution on fears of further declines and dip-buying. As smelters held back from selling and market supply tightened, some downstream enterprises turned to sourcing from social warehouses, driving a decline in social inventory of lead ingots during the week. However, as the SHFE lead front-month contract approached delivery, some delivery brand cargo continued moving to delivery warehouses, posing a risk of further social inventory buildup, which could weigh on lead prices. Moving into mid-to-late August, attention should also be paid to the maintenance progress at primary lead smelters and its impact on lead ingot social inventory.

SMM, August 5: Expectations for Middle East geopolitics are shifting toward easing, oil prices have pulled back sharply for two consecutive trading days, and market concerns about inflation have cooled. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September have pulled back, with multiple positive factors resonating to drive precious metals futures and stocks to strengthen together. In the futures market: As of around 17:12 on August 5, COMEX gold was up 1.7% at $4,223.1/oz; SHFE gold main contract was up 3.1% at 910.4 yuan/g; COMEX silver was up 2.53% at $61.77/oz; SHFE silver main contract was up 7.08% at 15,105 yuan/kg; silver T+D was up 5.8% at 14,988 yuan/kg. Platinum main contract futures were up 9.18% at 441.15 yuan/g; palladium main contract futures were up 8.51% at 329.65 yuan/g. In the stock market: As of market close on August 5, the precious metals sector was up 7.87%. In individual stocks: Sengda Resources and Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit up, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shanjin International were among the top gainers. News [South Korea's Central Bank Plans to Purchase Domestically Refined Gold Bars for the First Time in 13 Years] According to South Korean media reports, the Bank of Korea said on Monday that it will cooperate with LS MnM, the Korea Exchange (KRX), and the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years through over-the-counter transactions, as heightened geopolitical risks have increased the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves. LS MnM and Korea Zinc produce about 40 to 45 mt of gold annually as a by-product of smelting, of which about 10% is exported. The central bank stated that if relevant enterprises apply, it will consider using the trading and settlement system of the KRX and the storage facilities being prepared by the KSD to purchase some of the gold intended for export. The central bank said it will arrange bulk transactions after prior consultations on price and quantity to limit the impact on domestic gold prices, and that the new channel should reduce foreign exchange risks, since previous overseas purchases were all paid in US dollars. Additionally, the central bank also stated that it purchased a small amount of gold ETFs in Q2. Separately, it was reported that as of July, its gold holdings remained unchanged at 104.4 mt, while South Korea's foreign exchange reserves at the end of June stood at $427.36 billion, including gold reserves worth $4.79 billion. [World Gold Council: Gold Investment Demand Expected to Remain Positive] The World Gold Council report noted that in the remainder of 2026, investment demand is expected to be the main driver of gold demand growth, and will be increasingly supported by over-the-counter trading activities and Asian investment demand. Central banks will remain key gold buyers. High gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand, but the response of gold ore production and recycled gold supply is expected to be relatively mild. Gold investment demand is expected to remain positive for the rest of 2026. OTC activity and Asian investment demand are expected to play a larger role, while Western gold ETF flows may continue to be sensitive to US Treasury real yields, Fed monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar. Although consumer spending has remained relatively resilient, high gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand; technology-related gold demand is expected to further benefit from AI investment, but downside risks are accumulating. (Jinshi Data) [Zijin Mining: Terminates Acquisition of United Gold, Plans to Subscribe for 9.2% Equity] Zijin Mining announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on January 26, 2026, its controlled subsidiary Zijin Gold International signed an Arrangement Agreement with United Gold, under which Zijin Gold International would acquire all outstanding common shares of United Gold for a cash price of C$44 per share, with a total consideration of approximately C$5.5 billion (approximately $4 billion). However, after comprehensive evaluation, both parties believed that certain closing conditions precedent could not be fully satisfied or waived by the deadline stipulated in the acquisition agreement (which had been extended to July 29, 2026) or within a reasonable period thereafter. The parties agreed to terminate the acquisition, and neither party is required to pay a termination fee or any other fees to the other. Meanwhile, the parties separately entered into a Share Subscription Agreement, under which Zijin Gold International intends to subscribe for 12.8 million common shares (representing approximately 9.2% of the enlarged share capital post-issuance) placed by United Gold at a cash price of C$32.55 per share, with a total subscription amount of C$416.6 million, equivalent to approximately $295 million. [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1.7 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, up 54%-61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 200 million yuan to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 80 million yuan to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 570 million yuan to 700 million yuan, up 81.06%-122.36% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 272 million yuan to 402 million yuan, down 2.03%-33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected to Rise 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 500 million to 570 million yuan, up 280.16%-333.39% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 490 million to 580 million yuan, up 172.96%-223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected at 4.1-4.6 Billion Yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On August 5, the morning ex-factory reference average price of SMM #1 silver was 14,556 yuan/kg, up 2.38% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, downstream demand remained sluggish this month, with limited new orders overall. The strengthening silver price further weakened downstream purchase willingness; market transactions mainly relied on support from banking institutions, with deals concentrated around parity, and traders were reluctant to quote. Morning quotations in Shanghai were mostly at parity to a premium of up to 10 yuan/kg against TD; in Shenzhen, some national standard goods were quoted around parity. Although low-priced goods existed, they did not significantly disturb spot trade. Today, the market quoted a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610. Overall, expectations for a Strait of Hormuz agreement heated up, inflation concerns eased briefly, and precious metals recovered slightly. In the spot market, the rise in silver prices further suppressed demand, with orders remaining sluggish and trading staying thin. Voices Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: CITIC Securities research report stated that this year gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, irreconcilable geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we think this round of decline in gold prices is merely a temporary correction within the bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is highly likely to be the bottom zone for this round. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from a drag to a boost, the Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and coupled with surging US military spending driving up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an uptrend within the year. Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Hsueh Michael stated that the "explosive rally phase" for gold prices that began in August 2024 is not yet over, and maintains the forecast of gold at $4,600/oz in Q4 2026. This assessment rests on a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand data, discounting the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios. (Zhitong Finance) A research report from CICC Wealth Futures shows: oil prices pulled back, gold rebounded, and currently, the yen's disruption causing moves in the US dollar index is a new disturbance factor, which is expected to have a relatively limited impact on gold price trends. The biggest pressure on gold currently still comes from oil prices. CICC Wealth Futures believes that if oil prices are not excessively strong, the probability of gold maintaining a fluctuating trend or drifting higher is relatively high. Everbright Futures' outlook for August suggests that the short-term gold price trend depends on the evolving US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or its spillover expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform. However, if a substantive breakthrough in negotiations occurs, gold prices could stabilize in the short term and undergo a recovery and rebound. At that point, if domestic and overseas financial markets show a synchronized recovery, it can be further confirmed. Nevertheless, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank purchases and allocation demand, even if a pullback occurs again, the downside should be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline a medium-term policy framework. Before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key verification indicator. Overall, gold is likely in a stage of bottom consolidation and sentiment repair, and we hold a cautiously optimistic view. The core risk is that the US-Iran conflict once again pushes oil prices above $90/oz, a significant rebound in US inflation data far exceeding expectations, and the evolving probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of overseas financial markets and oil prices, a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict is largely unsupported. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back significantly from their record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, though most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 was $4,509/oz. That figure is down from $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610, compared to a forecast of $5,100 in the previous poll. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and boosted rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey from ING noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and US bond yields. The large drop in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came after a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and bond yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold prices should continue to be supported near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce, and now expects platinum to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by year-end, down from a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in the third quarter, despite historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling. The reasons include ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and local price discounts curbing demand for fresh imports. However, Citi maintains its short-term gold price target of $4,500 for 0–3 months. This target, the bank said, assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed; in the short term there remain many risks that could push gold prices lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance by the Fed. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on the medium to long-term outlook for gold. She noted in her comments that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with gold stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong surging around 20% over three days – a positive signal. “We believe confidence in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect that prices will rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. UBS’s global team remains upbeat on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. She indicated that the key events to watch going forward are the Fed’s policy tone at the FOMC meeting at the end of July and further developments in the Middle East. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical demand for the metal and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold prices face short-term headwinds from the US Fed's tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, gold investment positions look thin, suggesting limited room for further declines. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from the US Fed's tightening expectations, central bank purchases are expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with the bank estimating that central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May and the three-month average of monthly purchases at 67 mt, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman Sachs analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will continue for many years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases will be 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jin10 Data) Kim Soojin, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price action suggests that the market is placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer rather than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to add to its gold positions again at an appropriate time after reducing them earlier this year, believing gold's long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, "We plan to add to our gold positions again; the question is just the timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level from January to February this year, when gold's multi-year bull market abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to bringing inflation back down," "but I don't think we're in that world right now." Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases, a key driver of the previous bull market, will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep correction in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of bottoming out, with further upside only awaiting event catalysts. It recommends building positions in batches near $4,000 on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. Key allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, providing a notable margin of safety. After a deep pullback in H1, current valuations of gold mining companies have retreated sharply from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, aside from a valuation repair rally, they are expected to further benefit from the price elasticity driven by rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an "amplifier" for gold prices—the cost of gold mining is rigid, so rising gold prices directly translate into profit growth, making earnings elasticity far exceed the gold price increase itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: from a medium-term perspective, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of "inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → extended period of high rates by the US Fed → repeated intensification of rate hike expectations within the year," and gold's price center remains dominated by US real bond yields and the US dollar index, with the overall market likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Ceasefire consultations in the Middle East are currently mired in back-and-forth maneuvering, with the two sides significantly diverging on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and toll rules for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The recurring geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed's tightening policy stance. Meanwhile, the simultaneous rise in the US dollar index and US bond yields is creating a dual suppression effect; coupled with gold's safe-haven attributes temporarily yielding to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s bullish logic has not weakened but has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-country competition are weakening the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further confirms the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) The late-cycle US economy faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a growth slowdown. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to an economic slowdown or is forced to maintain higher rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold possesses strong long-term allocation value: the former is favorable for declining real interest rates, while the latter strengthens demand for safe-haven and credit-risk protection. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and its price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

4 August, 2026 Year-to-date changes by country* As of H1 2026, Poland remains the top buyer (82t), followed by Uzbekistan (41t), China (40t) and Kazakhstan (27t). Other major net buyers include Czech Republic (11t), Singapore (10t), Chile (8t), Jordan (6t) and Ghana (6t). Other smaller buyers are diversified within the emerging markets. Turkey remains the largest y-t-d seller (83t) with most of its selling activity concentrated in Q1. Sales in Q2 were a modest 4t with reduction in swaps recorded at the end of June. Russia also sold gold, with 44t net sales y-t-d. See more detail on central banks gold activity in our Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends . *Data to June 2026 where available. Central bank demand presented here comprises consist solely of publicly reported changes. This differs from our Gold Demand Trend statistics, which consist of aggregate reported changes as well as an estimate for unreported buying. Note: Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) represents the gold reserves of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ). Monthly totals may not sum due to rounding and exclude the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), which only reports quarterly data. Note: By country and y-t-d charts include changes of one tonne or more only. Source: IMF IFS, respective central banks, World Gold Council News source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026

The central bank has added gold exposure through ETFs and is preparing to buy domestically produced bullion for the first time since 2013.

August 4, 2026 The world's central banks acquired a net 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026 – the highest figure ever recorded for a second quarter. What makes this remarkable is the timing: the buying took place during a quarter in which the gold price fell by around 16 per cent. Anyone reading the World Gold Council's figures closely, however, will find a second and considerably more awkward story. The "Gold Demand Trends" report published by the World Gold Council (WGC) on 30 July delivers what may be the most important message of the summer for precious metals investors. While private investors exited gold ETFs during the second quarter and jewellery demand buckled under high prices, official institutions bought with rare conviction. At a net 288.9 tonnes, purchases were roughly 62 per cent above the year-earlier figure of 177.9 tonnes. The contrast with price action could hardly be sharper. The second quarter was gold's weakest since 2013; from the record high of USD 5,598 set in January, the metal has since given up considerable ground and currently trades at around USD 4,050. Central banks evidently did not read that weakness as a warning signal, but as an opportunity. Poland and China Lead the Buyers' List The single largest buyer was the National Bank of Poland with 51 tonnes. Warsaw is thereby continuing a course that brings the country close to its self-imposed target of 700 tonnes of gold reserves. In second place comes the People's Bank of China with 33 tonnes – its largest quarterly addition since late 2023, and a signal that Beijing is accelerating its diversification strategy again after a quieter phase. Behind these two sits a broad field of smaller buyers: Uzbekistan with 16 tonnes, Kazakhstan with 15 tonnes, and the central banks of Jordan and the Czech Republic with around 6 tonnes each. This breadth matters more for interpretation than the headline figure does. A record quarter carried by a single large buyer would be fragile. When demand is spread across numerous institutions from different regions and with different motivations, that points to a structural trend rather than a one-off effect. Russia Stands on the Other Side Not every central bank was buying. The Bank of Russia was the quarter's largest seller at 22 tonnes. The reason is understood to be pressure on the federal budget – here gold simply serves as a liquidity reserve to be drawn upon to plug deficits. Türkiye was also on the selling side once again, though at just 4 tonnes it was markedly more restrained than in the first quarter. These sales are central to any sound interpretation. They show that a portion of official gold movements has nothing to do with strategic conviction and everything to do with fiscal constraints. Anyone reading central bank purchases as a blanket vote of confidence in gold is making it too easy for themselves – and the same applies to anyone reading central bank sales as a blanket loss of faith. The Awkward Part: A Revision That Changes the Half-Year Picture This is where matters become interesting for attentive investors. Alongside the record second-quarter figure, Metals Focus – the World Gold Council's data provider – has sharply revised its estimate for the first quarter downwards: from an original 244 tonnes to just 57 tonnes. That is no cosmetic adjustment but a revision of more than three quarters, and it changes the overall picture considerably. Taken together, central bank demand for the first half of 2026 amounts to roughly 345 tonnes – the weakest half-year figure since 2022. Viewed soberly, then, the record quarter was primarily a catch-up movement following an exceptionally weak start to the year. For assessment purposes this means both statements are true at the same time. The second quarter was a record. The first half-year was weak. Anyone citing only one of the two figures is telling an incomplete story – and in the coverage of recent days, usually only the first has been on offer. What the Statistics Do Not Show A further point deserves attention: a substantial share of central bank purchases is never officially reported. Since 2022 the WGC has consistently identified a high proportion of unreported buying – the gap between estimated total demand and the purchases institutions actually disclose. The reported data underlying the report were, moreover, only captured up to 24 July; later disclosures may lead to further revisions. Investors should draw the right conclusion from this. Central bank demand is real and it is significant – but the published quarterly figures are estimates carrying a considerable margin of error, not exact measurements. An investment decision built on a single quarterly number rests on shifting ground. The Outlook Remains Constructive For all these caveats, the structural direction is unambiguous. The WGC's own survey of reserve managers shows that a large majority of the institutions polled expect global gold reserves to rise over the coming twelve months. Around three quarters also anticipate that their dollar holdings will decline over the next five years. This is where the real substance of the story lies. Central banks do not operate in quarters but in decades. Their gold purchases are not a timing signal for short-term price movements – anyone who bought in April on the basis of central bank demand is sitting on losses today. They are, however, an indicator of how institutional actors assess the long-term role of the US dollar and the case for hedging against geopolitical risk. For the 2026 full year, the World Gold Council expects another strong year of official demand, albeit below the 2025 level. Supply should grow only modestly: high prices and healthy producer margins support mine output, but operational constraints and long project lead times limit the pace. What the gold market did in the first half of 2026 was, above all, to change its buyer. Investors taking a long-term view in this phase will find remarkably patient company in the world's central banks. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/central-banks-buy-record-amount-of-gold-in-the-very-quarter-prices-fell

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362