Tuesday, 28/04/2026 | 17:51 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel Gold falls 3% to $4,620/oz on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, testing three-week lows as Fed hawkish hold lifts dollar and Treasury yields. XAU chart shows $4,300 as the bull-bear line and a weekly close below targets $3,400 on a 100% Fibonacci extension, a 26% drop. JPMorgan still targets $6,300 by year-end and Goldman Sachs holds $5,400, calling the March correction a positioning unwind. Gold traded at $4,620 per ounce on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, falling for a second straight session and testing three-week lows as a hawkish Federal Reserve hold lifted the dollar and pushed Treasury yields back toward 4.4%. The metal has now lost close to 3% on the week, rejected the upper boundary of the multi-month consolidation defined by the January 28 record close at $5,400, and slipped back below the 50-day EMA. With the FOMC decision Wednesday, U.S. Q1 GDP later in the week, and the Strait of Hormuz still partially closed, why is gold falling has become the most-asked question in the precious metals complex. Follow me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk . Why Gold Price Is Going Down Today? Dollar, Yields, Hawkish Fed Hold The pullback is more about real yields than tail risk. The dollar index has held above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are running between 4.3% and 4.4%, and the CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of an unchanged rate at Wednesday's FOMC meeting at 99.5%. Each of those signals raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., framed the macro tape this way: "Gold fell to multi-week lows on Tuesday, pressured by a firm US dollar and rising Treasury yields." How High Can Gold Go? UBP Rebuilds Bullion Positions and Reaffirms $6,000 Gold Price Prediction for 2026 Why Gold Is Surging With Silver and Why Experts Predict $7,000 Price in 2026 Why Gold Is Going Up? Goldman Gold Price Prediction Sees $5,400 as XAU Rebounds Kooijman added that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and feeding back into yields, with gold-backed ETFs flipping to outflows last week after three weeks of inflows. Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, sees a controlled distribution rather than a panic flush: "After reaching a peak near 4,900 USD/oz, gold has entered a relatively deep corrective phase, pulling back toward the 4,700 area. However, this decline has not been characterized by panic selling, but rather by a controlled sequence of losses." Tran's read fits the daily chart, where lower closes have been measured rather than capitulatory. The structural drivers pulling gold lower this week: Dollar index above 98.5, sustained for the third straight session Ten-year Treasury yields back at 4.3-4.4%, lifting real yields CME FedWatch pricing 99.5% probability of an unchanged FOMC at 3.50-3.75% Gold ETF flows turned negative last week after three weeks of inflows Strait of Hormuz disruption keeping oil bid and the rate-cut path further out ETF Outflows and the Strait of Hormuz Premium The flow picture has shifted decisively in the past week. Last week's ETF outflows, the first since early April, broke a three-week inflow streak. The reversal coincided with West Texas Intermediate climbing back above $100 per barrel and 25 commercial vessels being redirected away from Iranian ports over the weekend. That oil-yields feedback loop has now become gold's dominant short-term driver. Higher oil keeps inflation expectations elevated; elevated inflation expectations keep the Fed on hold; a Fed on hold keeps real yields elevated; elevated real yields keep gold under pressure even as the geopolitical backdrop, in classical terms, should support it. As I wrote in my March crash analysis , the same paradox crushed gold roughly 15% in March 2026. Key flow and physical market data points entering the FOMC week: Spot XAU/USD trades roughly 18% below the $5,595 January 29 all-time high Western ETF outflows resumed last week, snapping a three-week inflow streak WTI crude back above $100 per barrel on Strait of Hormuz disruption Central bank buying still running near 60 tonnes per month, per Goldman Sachs Gold Technical Analysis: The $4,300 Bull-Bear Line My chart shows the same picture that has defined gold since late January: a wide consolidation channel between $5,400 at the top and the $4,300 to $4,400 zone at the bottom. The upper bound is the January 28 record close, retested without breaking on March 2. The lower bound is fixed by two anchors, the October 2025 highs at around $4,360 and the panic lows from the week of March 23-27, where price briefly tagged the 200-day EMA at $4,200. In 15 years on the precious metals beat at FinanceMagnates.com, documented across my analyst page , I have watched gold violate multi-month consolidation channels twice, both times with the kind of momentum visible on this week's chart. Tuesday's session moved decisively away from the 50-day EMA, which now sits as resistance overhead, and the rejection at the channel top is the cleanest sell signal the daily chart has produced since my March 25 reversal call at the 200 EMA played out. A breakout up from this range opens price discovery and a run at fresh all-time highs above $5,600. A breakout down is what concerns me. Below $4,300, my Fibonacci extension based on the full 2024-2026 trend projects 100% extension at $3,400, which lines up almost exactly with the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months before the September acceleration. From the current $4,620 level, that scenario implies a 26% drop, in line with the bearish framework I detailed in my previous analysis . Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com Until $4,300 breaks on a weekly close, this is consolidation, not a confirmed downtrend. Below $4,300, my chart has very little technical support before $3,400. Level Type Notes $5,400 Resistance / Channel top January 28 record close, retested March 2 $4,800 Resistance / 50-day EMA Lost on this week's break $4,620 Current spot Tuesday, April 28, 2026 $4,360 Support / October 2025 highs Lower bound of multi-month range $4,200 Support / 200-day EMA Tested briefly during March 23 panic $3,400 Extension target April 2025 highs and 100% Fibo extension Gold Price Predictions 2026: How Low Can Gold Go? The institutional band remains wide and stays bullish even after the spring drawdown. JPMorgan Global Research holds a $6,300 year-end 2026 target, with strategist Greg Shearer projecting average quarterly investor and central bank demand of around 585 tonnes; my reading is that the call needs another credible Fed pivot to play out before year-end. Goldman Sachs sticks with $5,400, framing the March selloff as a leveraged-positioning unwind rather than a fundamental break, and on the chart that view aligns with the consolidation thesis as long as $4,300 holds. UBS sees $5,200 by June and $5,900 by late 2026, but its short-term cut explicitly cited stronger dollar and oil pressure, which is the exact tape gold is trading right now. Wells Fargo at $6,100 to $6,300 and Deutsche Bank at $6,000 round out the bullish institutional cluster, all anchored on the same fiscal-debasement and central-bank-buying thesis that the FinanceMagnates.com report on UBP rebuilding bullion positions detailed earlier this month. The Reuters poll of 30 analysts has settled at a $4,746 median for 2026, almost on top of current spot, suggesting the consensus has already absorbed the bearish leg. The same complex dynamic is playing out across the silver leg of the precious metals trade , where every move in gold is being amplified. Source Target Notes JPMorgan $6,300 Year-end 2026, 585 tonnes/quarter demand assumption UBS (long) $5,900 Late 2026 target, $5,200 short-term by June Wells Fargo $6,100-6,300 Raised from $4,500-$4,700 in February 2026 Deutsche Bank $6,000 Reiterated by Michael Hsueh, Head of Metals Research Goldman Sachs $5,400 Year-end, base case excludes new buyer wave Reuters poll $4,746 Median of 30 analysts for 2026 My TA (bear) $3,400 Activated only on weekly close below $4,300 FAQ, Gold Price Analysis Why is gold falling today? Gold is falling on April 28, 2026, because the U.S. dollar index is above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are at 4.3% to 4.4%, and CME FedWatch shows a 99.5% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of a non-yielding asset, and last week's ETF outflows reinforced the move. How low can gold go in 2026? Based on my technical analysis, gold's bull-bear line is $4,300. A weekly close below activates a 100% Fibonacci extension at $3,400, anchored by the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months. That implies a 26% drop from current levels. Above $4,300, the metal stays inside its multi-month consolidation rather than a confirmed downtrend. Will gold crash below $4,000? A close below $4,300 on the weekly chart is the trigger I am watching for a sustained move under $4,000. The 200-day EMA sits at $4,200, briefly tagged during the March 23 panic. Without that level breaking on closing basis, talk of a crash is premature. Above $4,300, the structural bull thesis from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs remains intact. What is the 200-day EMA on gold? The 200-day EMA on gold sits at approximately $4,200 per ounce as of April 28, 2026. The level was last tested during the panic session of March 23, when intraday price briefly touched the average before reversing higher. The 200 EMA has acted as the definitive bull-bear boundary for gold since the metal first cleared $4,000 in October 2025. Should I buy gold now? This article is not investment advice. From a chart perspective, gold trades inside a wide consolidation between $4,300 support and $5,400 resistance. Risk-managed entries become clearer only after the FOMC decision and the response at $4,300. JPMorgan targets $6,300 and Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 for year-end 2026, while my chart's bear scenario warns of $3,400 if support breaks. Source： https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-is-gold-falling-gold-price-risk-crash-to-3400/

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash Update】Inventory side, affected by higher copper prices, enterprises became more cautious in raw material procurement, and raw material inventory pulled back; downstream pick-up pace was relatively slow, with enterprises basically balancing production and sales, and finished product inventories edging down slightly. Next week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight decline, and SMM expects the operating rate to pull back MoM to 82.58%.

The latest report released by WPIC on March 4 showed that by 2026, the global platinum market would face a deficit for the fourth consecutive year, with a shortfall of 240,000 troy ounces (about 7 mt). Current above-ground stocks could meet just over four months of market demand. In terms of supply, mine supply remained stable (173 mt), while recycling volume rose 10% to 57 mt; with no major new mines coming on stream, supply elasticity was extremely low. Demand side, industrial demand rebounded 11%, investment demand surged 35% to 23 mt (a new record), while demand in the automotive and jewelry sectors edged down slightly.

[After platinum surged to a high of $1,300 and then corrected, it has risen by 40% this year, still emphasizing its industrial attributes] ①After gold prices have accumulated a certain increase, platinum prices are considered undervalued in comparison, offering investment value. ②The demand for platinum in hydrogen energy applications exhibits significant growth elasticity, and the industrial demand for platinum will maintain a stable growth pattern, but the incremental space may become limited as traditional industries slow down. (Finance Link)

On June 11, 2025, a delegation led by the district leaders of Licheng District, Quanzhou, visited the headquarters of United Hydrogen for a field trip and exchange activity, embarking on an in-depth exchange journey focused on the hydrogen energy industry. The field trip was led by Li Chuiju, Deputy Secretary of the Licheng District Committee of the Communist Party of China and District Governor, accompanied by Li Xiaodong, Director of the District Government Office; Huang Wenming, Director of the District Culture and Tourism Bureau; Yang Chengwen, Deputy Director of the District Government Office; Wu Jianzhong, Deputy Director of the Investment Promotion Office; and Chen Pengxiang, Chairman of Quanzhou Jiangnan Urban Construction Group, among other leaders. United Hydrogen's CEO and Chairman Ma Xia, Vice President Zhang Jihua, and other company executives warmly received the delegation. The purpose of the field trip was to gain an in-depth understanding of the current development status and future trends of the hydrogen energy industry, and to explore cooperation opportunities between United Hydrogen and Licheng District, Quanzhou, in the hydrogen energy sector. In the exhibition hall of the Yangtze River Delta Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park, Ma Xia, the company's Chairman and CEO, along with the senior management team, provided a detailed introduction to the Licheng District leaders on the application scenarios of hydrogen energy, the hydrogen lifestyle product ecosystem, and the company's latest achievements in the layout of the entire hydrogen energy industry chain, enabling the delegation to gain a comprehensive understanding of the hydrogen energy industry. Hydrogen Energy for Life: A Life Energy Refueling Station During the subsequent visit to the company's exhibition hall, it was elaborated that United Hydrogen is constructing a hydrogen energy ecosystem closed loop centered around hydrogen, with end-use application products serving as the consumption carrier. This encompasses energy production, storage and transportation, infrastructure construction, hydrogen energy product applications, core parts production, carbon asset management, and more, aiming to provide one-stop services for the entire industry chain. Jointly Exploring Cooperation Opportunities in the Hydrogen Energy Industry At the symposium, both sides engaged in in-depth exchanges on the development trends, technological innovations, market applications, and policy support of the hydrogen energy industry. The exchange was highly productive, laying a solid foundation for potential future cooperation. Both sides look forward to strengthening communication and coordination in the future, jointly exploring cooperation opportunities in hydrogen energy infrastructure construction, application scenario expansion, industrial ecosystem construction, and other areas, to promote the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry and contribute to the realization of the national "dual carbon" goals. United Hydrogen warmly welcomed the visit of the Licheng District government leaders of Quanzhou and looks forward to deeper cooperation with Licheng District in the hydrogen energy sector, jointly promoting innovation and development in the hydrogen energy industry. United Hydrogen will adhere to its vision of "becoming China's largest hydrogen service provider and the most valuable linker of the hydrogen energy ecosystem," collaborating with more partners to drive the transformation of the energy structure and industrial upgrading through hydrogen energy, jointly painting a new picture of green and low-carbon urban development.

After a decade of "simmering," platinum has entered a mode of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise relative to gold, with prices hitting new highs. Through interviews with multiple sources, a reporter from Cailian Press learned that compared to gold's stellar performance in recent years, platinum's former "value trough" is attracting capital inflows. Driven by expectations of supply contraction, jewelers using it as a "flat substitute" for gold, and a significant increase in medium and long-term hydrogen energy demand, the industry generally holds a relatively optimistic outlook for platinum prices in the long term. In the A-share market, shares of platinum industry chain companies such as Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. (600459.SH), Haotong Technology (301026.SZ), and Huayang New Materials (600281.SH) have strengthened recently, all hovering near their two-year highs. Platinum prices hit a nearly 10-year high Since June, platinum prices have entered a rally mode. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, as of June 10, 2025, PLc1 broke through $1,200 per ounce, reaching a nearly 10-year high. As of June 11, the Pt99.95 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose by approximately 22% this week. PLc1 price trend. Source: Investing.com "It can be understood as a catch-up rally," Xu Yongqi, chief analyst of metal and new materials at Hua'an Securities, told the reporter. Over the past decade, platinum prices have generally fluctuated considerably. Compared to the strong price trends of gold and silver in recent years, platinum has to some extent formed a "value trough," attracting capital inflows. Zhu Zhigang, director of the Platinum Committee of the Guangdong Gold Association, said in an interview with Cailian Press that the sharp rally in platinum prices in a short period suggests speculative sentiment. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of high gold prices, some upstream merchants in the jewelry market are intentionally increasing efforts to promote platinum as a substitute for gold. A relevant executive from a large domestic jeweler told Cailian Press that since the second half of 2024, the company has been vigorously promoting the sales of platinum series products, as platinum offers higher gross margins compared to gold products. From a fundamental perspective, the continuous pullback in inventory is an important support for the rise in platinum prices. Data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) shows that global above-ground platinum stocks are expected to fall to 67 mt in 2025, meeting only three months of market demand. In the first quarter of 2025, global total platinum supply fell by 10% YoY to 45 mt, while demand increased by 10% YoY to 71 mt over the same period. In terms of platinum demand structure, automotive catalysts account for 40%, jewelry accounts for 25%, industrial uses (excluding the automotive industry) account for 20%, and investment demand accounts for 9%. Three major A-share platinum industry chain companies In the futures market, shares of Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd., Haotong Technology, and Huayang New Materials in the A-share platinum industry chain have strengthened recently, all hovering near their two-year highs. It should be noted that currently, there are no domestic A-share companies primarily engaged in platinum ore business. One of the main businesses of the aforementioned three companies is the recycling, processing, and manufacturing of platinum group metals (platinum, ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, and iridium). A representative from Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. told a Cailian Press reporter that the company is not a mineral resources company. As the prices of the relevant precious metal raw materials have been hedged, their price changes have relatively small impact on the company. The company's main profits come from the processing fees of various precious metal-related products. In fact, Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. is a new materials company. In terms of capacity, Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. has the largest platinum group metal recycling and utilization base in China, with an annual capacity of around 10 mt currently, equivalent to the output of a medium-sized mine. The actual recycling volume in 2024 was nearly 15 mt. A company representative told a Cailian Press reporter that after the second phase of the Yimen Precious Metal Recycling and Processing Project reaches full production, the company will have an annual platinum group metal capacity of about 20 mt. The project has recently entered the final stage of trial production and is gradually transitioning to mass production. Haotong Technology's production has been unstable in recent years, with precious metal recycling production volumes of approximately 110 mt, 234 mt, and 64 mt from 2022 to 2024. Previously, the company stated on an investor interaction platform that it produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, and ruthenium metals. To avoid excessive exposure of company information and prevent competitors from understanding the company's situation, it has not disclosed specific production data. According to public information, as of the end of 2023, Haotong Technology's processing capacity of spent catalysts containing precious metals was approximately 2,600 mt. The first phase of Haobo New Materials' precious metal secondary resource comprehensive utilization project was designed to process 3,000 t/a of spent automotive catalysts, while the second phase was designed to process 12,000 t/a of spent automotive catalysts and 3,000 t/a of spent agents containing palladium, etc. Haotong Technology previously mentioned in an announcement that the originally planned construction capacity of the aforementioned first-phase project was mainly positioned for spent automotive catalyst recycling. At this stage, a centralized and standardized raw material market for spent automotive catalyst recycling has not yet formed, and the overall development of this market has fallen short of expectations, resulting in the underutilization of some of the company's completed capacities. The company has postponed the date for the entire project to reach the intended usable state to September 30, 2026. An industry chain representative told a reporter that the recycling of platinum group metal scrap is dominated by a seller's market, in a state of full competition. The industry adopts a tendering system, with basically one tender per order. Regarding Huayang New Materials, the company has an annual production capacity of 2,500 kg for platinum mesh products and an annual disposal capacity of 1,000 mt for spent catalysts containing precious metals. The long-term bullish trend remains. Zhu Zhigang stated that if the platinum price can steadily break through the high-pressure level of $1,200/ounce, there is still room for further upside in the future market. Otherwise, it may fall back to around $1,000/ounce again. Meanwhile, attention should also be paid to gold prices, as the price trends of the two metals show a certain degree of convergence. In terms of end-use consumption, industry chain insiders told a Cailian Press reporter that, based on the Shenzhen Shuibei Jewelry Trading Market, platinum series products are currently concentrated in the hands of mid-to-upstream wholesalers, and it will take time for these products to reach end-use consumption, with lower acceptance compared to gold. It is worth noting that platinum inventories among leading jewelry retailers are currently low. Taking Chow Tai Seng (002867.SZ) and CHJ Jewellery (002345.SZ) as examples, as of year-end 2024, platinum products accounted for less than 0.5% of their raw material inventories. An industry insider told a Cailian Press reporter that some upstream enterprises in the jewelry market are actively increasing their marketing efforts for platinum products. Once the market reaches a consensus on buying amid continuous price rise, low inventories will struggle to fully meet demand in the short term, potentially continuing to stimulate platinum price increases. Xu Yongqi stated that, from a fundamental perspective, platinum is in a trend of tight supply and strong demand. Global capital expenditures in the mining sector have declined in recent years, and production has pulled back. In the medium and long-term, global demand for platinum related to hydrogen is expected to grow significantly. Compared to gold or other rare minor metals, the current price increase of platinum is not high. After a decade of stagnation, platinum prices are likely to rise overall in the next three to five years, with the potential to reach $2,000 per ounce. An industry chain insider told a Cailian Press reporter that there is still a certain gap between some of the core technologies of domestic hydrogen fuel cells and those of leading countries such as Japan. The platinum-carbon catalyst in hydrogen fuel cells plays a crucial role in catalyzing discharge, with platinum accounting for about half of the catalyst cost. With the development of China's hydrogen energy industry, there is expected to be a significant increase in platinum demand in the long term. WPIC forecasts that the total platinum supply in 2025 will be at its lowest level in five years, with the expected shortage expanding to 30 mt, marking the third consecutive year of shortage. It is projected that by 2030, global platinum demand from hydrogen energy applications will increase from 1% to 11%.