August 4, 2026 The world's central banks acquired a net 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026 – the highest figure ever recorded for a second quarter. What makes this remarkable is the timing: the buying took place during a quarter in which the gold price fell by around 16 per cent. Anyone reading the World Gold Council's figures closely, however, will find a second and considerably more awkward story. The "Gold Demand Trends" report published by the World Gold Council (WGC) on 30 July delivers what may be the most important message of the summer for precious metals investors. While private investors exited gold ETFs during the second quarter and jewellery demand buckled under high prices, official institutions bought with rare conviction. At a net 288.9 tonnes, purchases were roughly 62 per cent above the year-earlier figure of 177.9 tonnes. The contrast with price action could hardly be sharper. The second quarter was gold's weakest since 2013; from the record high of USD 5,598 set in January, the metal has since given up considerable ground and currently trades at around USD 4,050. Central banks evidently did not read that weakness as a warning signal, but as an opportunity. Poland and China Lead the Buyers' List The single largest buyer was the National Bank of Poland with 51 tonnes. Warsaw is thereby continuing a course that brings the country close to its self-imposed target of 700 tonnes of gold reserves. In second place comes the People's Bank of China with 33 tonnes – its largest quarterly addition since late 2023, and a signal that Beijing is accelerating its diversification strategy again after a quieter phase. Behind these two sits a broad field of smaller buyers: Uzbekistan with 16 tonnes, Kazakhstan with 15 tonnes, and the central banks of Jordan and the Czech Republic with around 6 tonnes each. This breadth matters more for interpretation than the headline figure does. A record quarter carried by a single large buyer would be fragile. When demand is spread across numerous institutions from different regions and with different motivations, that points to a structural trend rather than a one-off effect. Russia Stands on the Other Side Not every central bank was buying. The Bank of Russia was the quarter's largest seller at 22 tonnes. The reason is understood to be pressure on the federal budget – here gold simply serves as a liquidity reserve to be drawn upon to plug deficits. Türkiye was also on the selling side once again, though at just 4 tonnes it was markedly more restrained than in the first quarter. These sales are central to any sound interpretation. They show that a portion of official gold movements has nothing to do with strategic conviction and everything to do with fiscal constraints. Anyone reading central bank purchases as a blanket vote of confidence in gold is making it too easy for themselves – and the same applies to anyone reading central bank sales as a blanket loss of faith. The Awkward Part: A Revision That Changes the Half-Year Picture This is where matters become interesting for attentive investors. Alongside the record second-quarter figure, Metals Focus – the World Gold Council's data provider – has sharply revised its estimate for the first quarter downwards: from an original 244 tonnes to just 57 tonnes. That is no cosmetic adjustment but a revision of more than three quarters, and it changes the overall picture considerably. Taken together, central bank demand for the first half of 2026 amounts to roughly 345 tonnes – the weakest half-year figure since 2022. Viewed soberly, then, the record quarter was primarily a catch-up movement following an exceptionally weak start to the year. For assessment purposes this means both statements are true at the same time. The second quarter was a record. The first half-year was weak. Anyone citing only one of the two figures is telling an incomplete story – and in the coverage of recent days, usually only the first has been on offer. What the Statistics Do Not Show A further point deserves attention: a substantial share of central bank purchases is never officially reported. Since 2022 the WGC has consistently identified a high proportion of unreported buying – the gap between estimated total demand and the purchases institutions actually disclose. The reported data underlying the report were, moreover, only captured up to 24 July; later disclosures may lead to further revisions. Investors should draw the right conclusion from this. Central bank demand is real and it is significant – but the published quarterly figures are estimates carrying a considerable margin of error, not exact measurements. An investment decision built on a single quarterly number rests on shifting ground. The Outlook Remains Constructive For all these caveats, the structural direction is unambiguous. The WGC's own survey of reserve managers shows that a large majority of the institutions polled expect global gold reserves to rise over the coming twelve months. Around three quarters also anticipate that their dollar holdings will decline over the next five years. This is where the real substance of the story lies. Central banks do not operate in quarters but in decades. Their gold purchases are not a timing signal for short-term price movements – anyone who bought in April on the basis of central bank demand is sitting on losses today. They are, however, an indicator of how institutional actors assess the long-term role of the US dollar and the case for hedging against geopolitical risk. For the 2026 full year, the World Gold Council expects another strong year of official demand, albeit below the 2025 level. Supply should grow only modestly: high prices and healthy producer margins support mine output, but operational constraints and long project lead times limit the pace. What the gold market did in the first half of 2026 was, above all, to change its buyer. Investors taking a long-term view in this phase will find remarkably patient company in the world's central banks. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/central-banks-buy-record-amount-of-gold-in-the-very-quarter-prices-fell

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

SMM Steel, July 28 – According to SMM statistics, total estimated shipments of mainstream market resources this week were 241,900 mt, down 1.75% WoW from last week's shipment level. By market: Table 1: Comparison of Mainstream Market Arrivals Source: SMM Steel Shanghai Market: HRC shipments in Shanghai increased WoW this week. Specifically, as the price spread between north and east China widened earlier, local procurement of northern resources increased, leading to concentrated recent arrivals at ports; shipments from south China steel mills were stable WoW. Going forward, the current price difference between north and south China remains high, so northern resources still offer procurement cost-effectiveness, while southern resources are relatively stable. In the short term, the arrival level of mainstream resources in Shanghai will have limited room for change. Chart 1: Shanghai Market Arrival Volume Source: SMM Steel Lecong Market: Shipments to Lecong decreased this week. Specifically, resources from north China were basically stable, with one of the two mainstream resources up and the other down; WG could not sustain the high shipments of last week, resulting in reduced arrivals this week. Going forward, mainstream resources have been shipped more to south China recently. As the price difference between south and east China is not significant currently, steel mills may shift shipments more towards the east China market. In the short term, arrivals in south China will remain in a consolidation range. Chart 2: Lecong Market Arrival Volume Source: SMM Steel SMM releases HRC shipment data for mainstream markets every Tuesday. To subscribe or follow more data, please scan the QR code below.

Curated by Copilot Mid-year price outlook: WGC projects gold to hover near $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside if macro or geopolitical risks worsen. Correction from record: Prices fell over 25% from January’s $5,600 peak due to a strong dollar, Fed hike fears, and easing Iran tensions. Supportive demand factors: Central bank purchases and long-term investor participation may limit downside and sustain gold's role as a strategic asset. WGC forecasts gold stability with potential for sharp upside The World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook projects gold trading within 5% of $4,100/oz in H2 2026 under current macro conditions. Scenario analysis suggests a climb toward $4,500 is possible, and only a strong, clear catalyst could push prices sustainably to $5,000. Key upside drivers include worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a dovish turn in Fed policy, and increased long-term investor participation. Newsable Asianet News + 1 From January's record high to mid-year correction Gold has dropped more than 25% from its January 2026 record of $5,602, with London spot prices down over 33% from their peak. The reversal followed a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, alongside reduced safe-haven demand after US-Iran ceasefire developments. Analysts view the pullback as a corrective consolidation rather than a structural bear market, with technical support seen near $3,900 and $3,600. The Financial Express + 1 At current levels, the headwinds and tailwinds are unusually balanced. Every major gold bull run has seen a 30–40% correction before the next leg higher, and the current decline from January’s peak sits within that range. Kaynat Chainwala,AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities The Financial Express Gold rallies on softer U.S. labour data Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth in June reduced market bets on a September Fed rate hike, helping gold secure its first weekly gain in five weeks. The softer labour data also pressured the US dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Central banks added 41 tonnes to reserves in May, reinforcing long-term demand support despite recent volatility. The Economic Times + 2 Why the forecast matters for investors now For investors, the WGC’s range-bound outlook suggests patience and phased accumulation strategies amid uncertainty over Fed policy and dollar strength. Historical patterns show that major gold bull runs often see 30–40% corrections before resuming upward, aligning with the current decline. In India, domestic prices remain supported by rupee weakness and higher import duties, cushioning global downside and offering relative stability. The Financial Express + 2 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/wgc-sees-gold-steady-near-4-100-in-h2-upside-if-risks-rise

July 2, 2026 Following the extreme price drop from $5,500 to below $4,000 per ounce, the gold market is currently struggling to find direction. The key question now is: Will the second half of 2026 cement a sideways trend, or will new factors spark the next rally? The latest outlook from the World Gold Council (WGC) provides answers to these questions. Currently, the precious metal is stabilizing amid moderate growth, persistent inflation, and easing concerns about interest rates. The WGC sees the fair value for the coming months at around $4,100, but expects a fluctuation range of five percent. However, a massive upward breakout remains a realistic scenario: economic downturns, geopolitical escalations, or falling interest rate expectations could quickly drive the price back above $4,500, the WGC said. On the downside, the market is well-protected, as experience shows that pullbacks of more than 10 percent quickly attract countercyclical buyers. The extreme price volatility in the first half of the year, triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, would gradually subside, the WGC continued, and return to historical averages. The regional dynamics are particularly interesting: While sharp sell-offs have recently occurred primarily during U.S. trading hours, Asian investors have regularly driven strong recoveries. This underscores Asia’s growing market influence on global price formation. Gold: Asia’s Market Influence Grows According to WGC experts, two heavyweights will significantly dictate price trends for the rest of the year: central banks and the Indian market. Despite isolated portfolio shifts in the first quarter, WGC data for 2026 signal sustained buying interest from the official sector. Every additional purchase above the long-term average not only strengthens physical demand but also sends a strong buying signal to institutional investors. The situation in India is the opposite. To conserve foreign exchange reserves in the face of high energy prices, the Indian government has drastically raised gold import duties from 6 to 15 percent and has actively worked to curb purchases. Although this fundamental shift for the world’s second-largest gold market has, according to the WGC, already been largely priced in at current levels, a further economic slowdown in India could place additional pressure on physical demand there as well as on the market for gold-backed loans. In summary, gold remains caught between these forces. Without new macroeconomic catalysts, stabilization at current levels is the most likely scenario. However, should new signs of crisis emerge, the fundamental upside potential is immense, while the downside risk is effectively limited by the reliable network of central banks and long-term investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-wgc-sees-potential-for-a-breakout-above-usd4-500

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 2:00 PM (Kitco News) - Central bank demand has been a solid pillar of support for the gold market as prices pushed to all-time highs at the start of the year. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, official-sector demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future. The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves. The survey comes at a historic moment for the precious metal. The WGC noted that gold recently surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset, underscoring a dramatic shift in how official institutions are managing their wealth. In an interview with Kitco News, Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said the survey demonstrates that official-sector confidence in gold remains exceptionally strong. "Central banks are still very positive on gold. In fact, more positive than ever," Fan said, noting that the percentage of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves rose to a record 45% this year from 43% in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The survey itself suggests that central bankers increasingly view gold as a strategic monetary asset rather than a passive legacy holding. Eighty-four percent of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of global reserves within five years, while 74% expect the U.S. dollar's share of reserves to decline over the same period. The findings reinforce a trend that has transformed reserve management over the last decade. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the last four years, double the pace seen during the previous decade. Fan said one of the most notable developments is that interest in gold is spreading across a broader group of central banks. "We're seeing newer central banks starting to emerge," he said, pointing to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Guatemala, and El Salvador that have recently entered the market or resumed purchases after years of inactivity. "The base on which central banks are buying is expanding." While emerging-market central banks remain the dominant buyers, Fan noted that interest is no longer confined to developing economies. The survey showed that 18% of advanced-economy central banks also expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. Fan said central banks are increasingly discussing gold internally as reserve managers evaluate how best to diversify their portfolios amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. "The number of conversations that we've been having over the past one or two years has definitely picked up," he said. "More central banks are approaching us, new central banks are approaching us." The survey found that reserve diversification remains the primary reason for buying gold, followed by the need for a stronger hedge against economic risks and concerns surrounding reserve-currency economies. Thirty-one of the 34 central banks planning to increase gold reserves cited diversification as a key motivation. The survey shows that reserve managers also continue to value gold's traditional monetary characteristics. A record 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during times of crisis as a major reason for holding the metal, while 84% pointed to its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, and 83% highlighted its diversification benefits. Fan said those responses were particularly striking because they came during the latest conflict in the Middle East. "The most relevant factor this year was gold's performance during times of crisis," he said. "If anything, it's even more relevant than before." He added that recent geopolitical tensions have not changed central banks' long-term assessment of the metal. "Central banks are valuing more than ever gold's performance during times of crisis, gold's role as a long-term store of value, gold as a portfolio diversifier, gold being able to be a geopolitical hedge," Fan said. The growing importance of gold is also reflected in participation levels. This year's survey attracted 76 responses, the highest on record and up from 73 last year. Fan said the growing response rate is itself evidence that gold is becoming increasingly important within the official sector. "That fact alone points out that gold is much more relevant, much more front and center as a topic among central banks," he said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/record-45-central-banks-plan-increase-gold-holdings-wgc-survey-finds