The global copper scrap market is entering a period of structural tightening as geopolitical tensions and industrial policy increasingly reshape trade flows. The relationship between the United States and China sits at the center of this transition, particularly as Washington considers restricting exports of high-quality copper scrap in 2027 while China remains heavily dependent on imported secondary copper feedstock. China’s copper scrap imports remained strong in 2024 at 441,080 MT, underscoring continued demand from secondary refiners serving the EV, renewable energy, power grid, and manufacturing sectors. However, imports have collapsed in 2025 to 143,271 MT, with current projections for 2026 falling further to just 5,305 MT. The sharp decline signals a rapid deterioration in China’s direct access to imported scrap feedstock amid rising geopolitical friction and tariffs. China’s existing 10% tariff on US-origin scrap has already reduced the competitiveness of direct shipments, although clean high-grade material has continued to move because of favorable processing economics. Trade flows indicate that copper scrap is increasingly being rerouted through Southeast Asia rather than moving directly from the United States into China. US copper scrap exports to ASEAN rose from 170,687 tonnes in 2024 to 222,993 tonnes in 2025, while Chinese imports of copper scrap from ASEAN increased from 434,176 tonnes to 529,345 tonnes over the same period. The correlation strongly suggests ASEAN is emerging as a critical intermediary hub for scrap aggregation, processing, blending, and re-export into China. This shift reflects a broader restructuring of the global scrap trade as market participants adapt to tariffs, geopolitical risk, and the growing probability of tighter controls on high-quality US scrap exports. Countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are increasingly functioning as alternative routing channels within the global secondary copper supply chain. The timing is significant because the United States continues to export around 1 million tonnes of copper scrap globally in 2025 while domestic secondary refinery production remains limited at approximately 50kt. This imbalance is becoming central to the policy debate in Washington. As US demand for copper accelerates through grid modernization, electrification, AI-driven data center expansion, and defense manufacturing, policymakers are increasingly questioning whether high-grade recyclable copper should continue flowing overseas while the US remains dependent on imported refined copper. Current policy discussions focus on retaining a larger share of premium copper scrap within the domestic market beginning as early as 2027. Although proposals currently stop short of a full export ban, any retention mechanism would still materially reduce export availability for high-quality grades such as bare bright copper and No.1 copper scrap. For China, tighter access to premium scrap has important implications beyond the secondary market. High-quality scrap directly competes with refined copper cathode because it offers high recovery rates with lower processing intensity than primary smelting. If imported scrap availability continues to tighten, Chinese refiners will likely need to increase refined copper purchases to maintain output levels. This dynamic could become increasingly supportive for refined copper markets globally. The primary copper market is already facing structural constraints from weak mine supply growth, declining ore grades, permitting delays, and years of underinvestment in new projects. A simultaneous tightening in high-grade scrap availability would amplify pressure on refined copper balances precisely as demand linked to electrification continues to strengthen. As a result, the market could see narrower scrap discounts relative to cathode, firmer copper premiums in Asia, and increased volatility across both COMEX and LME pricing. The secondary copper market is therefore becoming an increasingly important variable in the broader refined copper outlook. Ultimately, the copper scrap market is no longer operating purely on economic arbitrage. Strategic resource security is becoming a defining driver of trade flows and policy decisions. The rapid growth in ASEAN intermediary trade, combined with collapsing direct Chinese scrap imports and growing US policy intervention, signals that the global copper supply chain is entering a new phase of fragmentation — one that is likely to tighten both scrap and refined copper markets into 2026 and beyond. Author: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Market Analyst For more information or to discuss market dynamics, you can contact me on shairazahmed@smm.cn

May 19, 2026 key takeaways. Gold’s recent price consolidation does not, in our view, undermine the medium-term case for higher prices Structural support remains intact, with resilient central bank and private investor demand, reflecting broad fiscal uncertainty and currency concerns The key risks to watch would be a shift to more restrictive central bank policies that pushes real yields higher for longer, or a deterioration in passive fund flows We stay constructive on gold, maintain our overweight allocation in portfolios, and keep our 12-month price target at USD 5,400/oz. Gold has been one of the defining financial assets of the last 12 months. Yet after a strong performance, especially in the second half of 2025, prices have stalled. Momentum has cooled, and the metal has at times lagged what investors might have expected from a haven asset during a period of geopolitical stress. Gold has been one of the defining financial assets of the last 12 months. Yet after a strong performance, especially in the second half of 2025, prices have stalled. Momentum has cooled, and the metal has at times lagged what investors might have expected from a haven asset during a period of geopolitical stress. Gold prices more than doubled in the year to January 2026, reaching a record USD 5,595 per ounce before declining in the wake of the Middle East conflict to a trough of USD 4,099/oz in mid-March, most recently reaching USD 4,560/oz. In contrast to comparable periods of geopolitical tension – such as the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the first and second Gulf Wars, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – gold has seen a larger drawdown with much higher levels of volatility. It has fallen by over 10% since the conflict began. We believe this reflects market concerns over inflation and crowded investor positioning at the start of 2026. As a non-yielding asset, gold performs best when real yields decline and the US dollar depreciates. However, an energy supply shock can have the opposite effect, resulting in markets pricing higher central bank rate expectations, higher yields and a firmer US dollar. It is therefore unsurprising that gold has shown a strong negative relationship with rising energy prices. If the Middle East conflict de-escalates and energy prices fall, in line with our base scenario, gold could recover, supported by some normalising of previously high investor positioning. Gold prices more than doubled in the year to January 2026, reaching a record USD 5,595 per ounce… Still, the Middle East conflict is not the only variable for prices. The medium-term outlook is also determined by whether demand and the broader geopolitical and fundamental macroeconomic environment have changed. Here, we do not see a shift and therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our 12-month price target of USD 5,400/oz, and our overweight allocation in portfolios. To understand gold’s recent loss of momentum, it helps to separate structural from short-term drivers. At the structural level, demand from both central banks and private investors remains resilient. This explains how short-term headwinds – including a stronger dollar and higher bond yields – can create temporary weakness without undermining longer-run demand. In other words, slowing momentum should not be mistaken for a structural reversal. Structural incentives to hold gold The most compelling structural case for gold lies in incentives for investors, private and public, to hold a real asset. Yet unlike most currencies, where supply can expand due to monetary and fiscal easing, gold supply has been stable through history: industry estimates suggest some 220,000 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout history, with new mine output adding just over 1% to above-ground stocks each year . Moreover, unlike currencies, gold is not subject to financial sanctions. US sanctions on Russia accelerated central banks’ desire to hold reserve assets such as gold that are insulated from such threats while preserving value. As more countries gradually diversify away from use of the US dollar and settle trade in other currencies, demand for neutral reserve assets such as gold rises. At the structural level, demand from both central banks and private investors remains resilient At the same time, lower confidence in some currencies has supported private investor demand, especially as gold helps portfolio diversification. Persistent fiscal uncertainty and still-high inflation reinforce this trend. When investors question the long-term path of public debt, the capacity to finance deficits, or policy credibility, demand for diversified assets increases. In this environment, gold can provide a hedge against risks that are hard to manage – including inflation surprises, poor management of government finances that ends up constraining monetary policy, or declining confidence in institutions. The price of gold, for example, has recently correlated with fears around the Federal Reserve’s independence. Persistent demand trends contribute to price appreciation Over the past decade, there has been a strong link between total gold volumes bought by both private investors and central banks, and real gold prices. Approximately 400 metric tonnes of quarterly demand is consistent with price stability, with every additional 100 tonnes associated with roughly a three-percentage-point rise in quarterly prices. Since 2023, demand has averaged about 620 tonnes a quarter, well above the 450-tonne average between 2010 and 2022. Despite concerns about weaker demand this year, World Gold Council data shows total demand of 790 tonnes over the first quarter of 2026, of which central banks purchased a net 244 tonnes, a 3% increase year on year. Private demand was roughly in line with 2025’s average. Lower ETF flows were offset by higher demand for physical gold, with China accounting for 40% of the total. Central banks can create a higher ‘floor’ From 1980 to 2005, central banks reduced their gold reserves, and that trend accelerated after the Cold War with globalisation, and US security guarantees for allies. However, recent years have re-set international relations, and central banks have rapidly increased their gold purchases . The rationale is straightforward: reserve managers’ gold purchases reflect concerns about US financial sanctions, broader geopolitical uncertainty, and unpredictable trade policies. The share of gold in overall reserves held by emerging market central banks is still less than their developed market peers While demand has been strongest in emerging countries, a structurally higher baseline of purchases by central banks across many countries can reduce the depth and duration of any price falls, particularly if private investor flows become volatile. Importantly, the share of gold in overall reserves held by emerging market central banks is still less than their developed market peers, suggesting more room for buying. As a result, such demand is likely to remain. Recently, some emerging market countries, such as Turkey, have sold or swapped gold reserves to manage currency depreciation pressures exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East. We see such moves as exceptions to the broader trend of purchases in countries with free-floating exchange rates. Real yields and monetary credibility The outlook for interest rates and their impact on private investor flows will be another key factor for gold prices. Gold is sensitive to real yields: when they fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, supporting prices. This link has re-asserted itself in recent months. In principle, a more restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy could weigh on gold prices if it resulted in persistently higher real yields. However, we see this risk as limited. The Fed is likely to keep policy rates on hold for much of 2026, with any rate cut more likely towards the end of the year. Rate moves matter for investor flows into the gold market. Physically-backed ETFs, which allow investors to gain exposure to gold without owning the metal, tend to be sensitive to rate expectations. Even after strong inflows, total ETF holdings are not back to their historical highs. Broadly stable flows would support demand. We therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our overweight allocation and our 12‑month price target of USD 5,400/oz The structural case remains intact We do not expect the recent gold price consolidation to alter its medium-term trajectory. Cooling investor sentiment does not undermine the structural case for gold, but instead shifts focus back to slower-moving drivers including central bank demand, portfolio allocation and fiscal uncertainty. Three factors support this view. First, demand remains resilient despite volatility. Second, the macro context still favours real assets amid fiscal uncertainty and the gradual erosion of purchasing power. Third, recent headwinds look short term rather than structural – including higher yields and a stronger US dollar, which we see as temporary. Risks remain. Negative factors to watch would be higher-for-longer real yields, a prolonged decline in ETF demand, or lower physical demand, for example for jewellery, even if that were partly offset by central bank buying. We therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our overweight allocation and our 12-month price target of USD 5,400/oz. Our structural case for the precious metal rests on resilient demand, fiscal uncertainty and the gradual erosion of US dollar purchasing power. Source： https://www.lombardodier.com/insights/2026/may/gold-s-slowdown.html

May 22, 2026 Gold is no longer merely a traditional hedge against crisis; rather, it is reclaiming its role as a monetary anchor in the global financial system. This is the key conclusion reached by Incrementum AG in the latest edition of its renowned “ In Gold We Trust ” report. Authors Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek view the recent price swings not as speculative exaggeration, but as a symptom of profound remonetization. Driven by geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, and dwindling confidence in fiat currencies, the gold market is now entering its most dynamic phase. Price targets shattered: On the way to $8,900? The market dynamics speak for themselves: With a gain of 64.4%, gold recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979 in 2025 and hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January 2026. The “golden decade” proclaimed by Incrementum in 2020—with a price target at the time of $4,800 by 2030—has thus become a reality ahead of schedule. In light of this acceleration, analysts are now outlining an alternative inflation scenario in which gold could rise to $8,900 by the end of the decade. The Fundamentals: Central Banks, Debt, and a Potential Revaluation The report identifies three major structural pillars supporting the long-term bull market: Central Bank Purchases: Following three record years with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons each, central banks acquired a substantial 863 tons in 2025 as well. The signal is clear: governments are increasingly positioning gold as a neutral reserve asset. Soaring debt: With global debt at a record high of $348 trillion (including $39 trillion in the U.S. alone) and deeply negative real yields, the traditional government bond is losing its role as a “risk-free” haven. Investors are being systematically pushed toward alternative stores of value. Revaluation of U.S. reserves: The U.S. continues to report its gold holdings on its balance sheet at a mere $42.22 per ounce. Incrementum no longer considers an official revaluation to market price (most recently near $4,600) to be merely a thought experiment, but rather a growing political possibility. The Next Wave: Institutional Capital Is Still Missing Despite massive price gains, the market is by no means overcrowded, according to Incrementum. Privately held gold reserves account for an estimated 2.7% of global financial assets. Analysts therefore expect a shift in demand dynamics: While central banks have been the primary buyers so far, institutional capital is now likely to flow into the market on a broad scale. This phase of broad public participation is historically considered the longest and strongest of a bull market. Short-term outlook: Volatility as a side effect However, a straight-line rise is not expected. For early summer 2026, Incrementum forecasts a volatile consolidation within a range of $4,500 to $4,950 per ounce. Higher bond yields or liquidity bottlenecks could certainly trigger sharp pullbacks. In the context of the “In Gold We Trust” report, however, such fluctuations do not represent a break in the trend, but rather the normal breathing room of a market that is returning to its core monetary function within a fragile financial system. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/new-forecast-is-gold-heading-toward-usd8-900-per-ounce

Harita Nickel plans to launch a share buyback of up to Rp 1 trillion, subject to shareholder approval. The company said the move is intended to enhance shareholder value because the current share price does not fully reflect its fundamentals. Against a backdrop of volatility in nickel sector valuations, the planned buyback is also seen as a step to support market expectations and reinforce shareholder returns.

Material Recycling Association of India Voice of the Indian Recycling Industry Concept Note ONE DAY CONFERENCE ON CRITICAL MINERALS RECYCLING LANDSCAPE 1. Background & Context India’s transition towards clean energy, electric mobility, and advanced manufacturing is driving an unprecedented demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements, and platinum group metals. However, India remains highly import dependent (over 80–90%) for several critical minerals (Ministry of Mines, NITI Aayog), making supply chains vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and price volatility. Recognizing this, the Government of India has launched the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) to strengthen domestic capabilities across the value chain: from exploration and mining to processing and recycling. While mining is inherently capital-intensive and long-gestation, recycling of critical minerals offers a near-term, scalable, and sustainable pathway with significant economic and environmental benefits: Import Substitution: Estimates suggest recycling could contribute a meaningful share ( 30-40% ) of future demand, subject to collection efficiency and technology scale-up (NITI Aayog, CII) Carbon Emission Reduction: Recycling critical minerals can reduce emissions by 30–70% compared to primary mining, particularly for metals like aluminum, nickel, and cobalt (Global Studies) Energy Savings: Secondary production of metals can save up to 60–90% of energy compared to virgin extraction (IEA) Livelihood Generation: A formalized recycling ecosystem can generate large-scale employment , particularly by integrating India’s informal sector, which currently handles 80–90% of waste collection Climate & Net-Zero Goals: Recycling will play a critical role in supporting India’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070 and achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 In this context, there is a strong need for a multi-stakeholder policy dialogue to align government vision, technological capabilities, and industry realities, and to accelerate the development of a robust recycling ecosystem under NCMM. 2. Objective This conference is designed as a high-level stakeholder consultation platform to deliberate on the role of recycling within India’s critical mineral strategy and to identify actionable interventions across policy, technology, and market development. Key Objectives: Assess the role of recycling in achieving supply security under NCMM Evaluate the effectiveness of existing and proposed policy and incentive frameworks Identify gaps in regulatory frameworks and institutional coordination Examine challenges in technology development, commercialization, and scaling Capture industry perspectives on market mechanisms, feedstock availability, and financing Assess the current black mass landscape in India and pathways for domestic value recovery Develop a roadmap for building a resilient and competitive critical mineral recycling ecosystem 3. Conference Structure The conference is structured across three key pillars: 4. Expected Outcomes Development of a “ Conference Recommendations Report ” for submission to relevant ministries Identification of priority policy interventions to strengthen recycling under NCMM Recommendations on technology scaling, funding mechanisms, and industry support Actionable inputs for improving feedstock availability, market development, and regulatory alignment 5. Conclusion As India positions itself as a global leader in clean energy and advanced manufacturing, critical mineral security will be a defining factor in sustaining this growth. Recycling presents a strategic opportunity to complement primary resource development while advancing sustainability and circular economy objectives. This consultation aims to catalyze policy action, technological innovation, and industry alignment, enabling India to build a resilient, self-reliant, and circular critical mineral ecosystem.

Fujiyama Power Systems has approved plans to build a 1.2GW TOPCon solar cell facility at its Ratlam plant in Madhya Pradesh, with commercial production expected in the first quarter of FY2028. The INR 350 crore project will complement the company’s existing 1GW Mono PERC cell plant in Uttar Pradesh and support its backward integration and technology upgrade strategy. SMM believes the rollout of India’s ALMM-II rules from June 2026 is accelerating domestic cell capacity expansion, helping manufacturers secure DCR-compliant supply, reduce cost volatility and strengthen their rooftop solar positioning.