Gold is a widely known safe-haven asset and tends to benefit during geopolitical turmoil, but the metal has remained largely range-bound amid the latest Middle East conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

Despite recent outflows, expert says decade-long gold surge still has legs.

On Friday (June 13), US stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with all three major indices closing in the red. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.79% to 42,197.79 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.13% to 5,976.97 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3% to 19,406.83 points. For the week, the Dow fell 1.32%, the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.63%, all ending a two-week winning streak. In the early hours of Friday (June 13) local time, tensions in the Middle East escalated, causing several popular US stocks to decline significantly during the night session. Affected by geopolitical tensions, international crude oil futures settled sharply higher, rising over 7%. WTI July crude oil futures rose 7.26%, and Brent August crude oil futures rose 7.02%. US COMEX gold futures rose 1.47%. Despite the overall decline in US stocks, sectors such as energy and precious metals rallied against the trend. ExxonMobil rose 2.18%, ConocoPhillips rose 2.4%; VanEck Gold Miners ETF rose 1.74%, and Newmont Corporation rose 3.54%. Louis Navellier, Chief Investment Officer at Navellier & Associates, said, "The lasting damage could be to crude oil prices. If oil prices do not pull back soon, it will certainly cause some damage to US inflation data." Performance of Popular Stocks Most large-cap tech stocks declined, with (ranked by market capitalization) Microsoft falling 0.82%, NVIDIA falling 2.09%; Apple falling 1.38%, Amazon falling 0.53%, Alphabet Class C falling 0.62%, Meta falling 1.51%, Broadcom falling 2.88%, and Tesla rising 1.94%. Oracle rose 7.69%, gaining 23.68% for the week, marking its best weekly performance since 2001. Drone manufacturer AIRO Group surged 140% on its first day of trading. Among Chinese stocks listed in the US, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.74%, declining 0.77% for the week. Most popular Chinese stocks listed in the US closed lower, with Pony.ai falling 7.24%, XPeng Motors falling 5.46%, Li Auto falling 3.84%, Alibaba falling 3.22%, NIO falling 3.04%, Pinduoduo falling 2.76%, JD.com falling 2.53%, New Oriental falling 2.33%, Tencent Music Entertainment falling 2.13%, and Baidu falling 2.06%. Company News [Amazon Restructures Healthcare Business] To streamline its structure, Amazon is reorganizing its healthcare business into six "pillars." Previously, Amazon had lost several healthcare executives in recent months. After acquiring PillPack and One Medical and launching some of its own services, Amazon has been struggling to find a consistent strategy in the healthcare market. [AMD Unveils Two Generations of Flagship AI Chips to Compete with NVIDIA; Morgan Stanley: MI400 Could Be a Key Inflection Point] At the AMD Advancing AI conference, AMD showcased its strongest lineup of AI products ever, including flagship AI chips for data centers, AI software stacks, AI rack-level infrastructure, AI network cards, and DPUs, fully demonstrating its ambition to compete with NVIDIA. Morgan Stanley stated that AMD has released the MI350 as expected, but the focus remains on the rack-level MI400/450 products to be launched next year. If these products can be delivered on schedule, they could have a greater impact. [US eVTOL Giant Archer Raises $850 Million] Archer Aviation, a well-known US electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft company, announced that it has raised $850 million through the sale of shares. Archer stated that it plans to use the $850 million to support new infrastructure construction and launch an AI-based aviation software platform.

Gold prices surged again this week amid the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions and Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating last week. According to an analyst, gold is in the early stages of a robust, long-term bull market and is expected to rise to $4,500 per ounce. Jordan Roy-Byrne, a technical analyst and editor of *The Daily Gold*, pointed out that gold prices broke out of a 13-year cup-and-handle formation in March last year, marking a significant technical confirmation. Now, the drivers of the macroeconomic landscape are aligning, with the market witnessing rising US Treasury yields, a prolonged bear market in bonds, and a collapse in credit quality. He emphasized that similar macroeconomic backgrounds and technical conditions were present in the early stages of gold bull markets in 1930, 1972, and 2002. Additionally, gold prices have outperformed the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio, and inflation-adjusted gold prices have just broken above a 45-year low. Roy-Byrne stated that it is entirely possible for gold prices to reach $3,700 by the end of the year, and historical experience suggests that gold prices will reach $4,400 to $4,500 within the next 12 months. Furthermore, silver prices are also expected to surpass $100. Optimistic Outlook for Gold and Silver Investments The upward momentum in gold prices has also been recognized by other institutions. Imaru Casanova, portfolio manager of the VanEck Gold and Precious Metals Fund, noted in a report released earlier this month that gold is building a solid foundation above $3,000 during a new consolidation phase. She emphasized that gold's pullback from $3,500 last month is not surprising and does not pose a significant concern. Currently, only about 1% of global assets under management are allocated to gold. As investors continue to increase their exposure, gold prices are expected to be significantly pushed higher. She believes that, based on the historical correlation between ETF open interest and gold prices, if ETF open interest returns to its peak level in 2020, gold prices could rise by an additional $600. Therefore, it is not too late for investors to start increasing their holdings of gold or gold stocks now. The institution predicts that gold prices could reach $5,000 within the next five years. The investment outlook for gold remains optimistic. Beyond gold, Roy-Byrne also highlighted investment opportunities in silver. He pointed out that $35 and $37 will be key levels for silver prices to break through, and once silver surpasses $50, it could double to $100 within the next 12 to 15 months. Currently, silver prices are at a 45-year low.

On Tuesday, US Eastern Time, the three major US stock indices closed higher after a volatile session as investors assessed the latest round of corporate earnings, economic data, and changes in trade policies. US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick stated on the same day that he had reached a trade agreement with an unnamed country. "I have a trade agreement, agreement, agreement, agreement. But I need to wait for their leaders and their parliament to approve it, and I expect it to be approved soon." This trade agreement will be the first one reached by the current Trump administration. However, Lutnick refused to disclose which country it was. Trump later revealed that tariff negotiations with India were "going well," and he believed that the US was on the verge of reaching a trade agreement with India. In addition, Lutnick claimed that Trump would sign an executive order on Tuesday, exempting manufacturers producing cars in the US from some tariffs, giving them time to bring their parts supply chains back home. However, automakers' stocks showed relatively little reaction to the potential tariff reductions. Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said that much of the economic data would be mixed, and it might be difficult to discern the impact of tariffs in the next one to two months. "The companies most affected by tariffs are doing what we expected them to do—either cutting their earnings forecasts or suspending them." As Trump's erratic policies sparked fears of an economic recession, the US Consumer Confidence Index fell for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data released by The Conference Board showed that the Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.9 points to 86.0 in April, below the expected 87.5 and the previous 93.9. Tariffs have now become the top concern for consumers, with an increasing number of Americans also worried about a potential economic recession. The proportion of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months has reached its highest level in two years. Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities said, "Many are still predicting a recession and that the stock market will fall further, but we believe that for stocks, the 'Trump put' is real, and for the economy, the 'Fed put' is real. While it's difficult to judge the market's peaks and troughs, we think the worst is behind us." HSBC strategists Alastair Pinder and Dmitriy Leskin said, "On the positive side, while the Trump administration has triggered market volatility, the so-called 'Trump put' is becoming increasingly evident, and there has been more discussion recently about de-escalation and reaching trade agreements. On the negative side, discussions about a recession are also intensifying. Although some of this has already been priced in, we believe it does limit upside potential." Market Dynamics At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 300.03 points, or 0.75%, to 40,527.62; the Nasdaq Composite gained 95.18 points, or 0.55%, to 17,461.32; and the S&P 500 Index advanced 32.08 points, or 0.58%, to 5,560.83. Most US sector ETFs closed higher, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund up 1.04%, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund up 0.47%, the Global X Internet of Things ETF up 0.95%, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF each up at least 0.9%, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund up 0.71%, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF up 0.45%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down 0.17%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund down 0.29%. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index, the Financial sector rose 0.97%, the Health Care sector rose 0.49%, the Real Estate sector rose 0.73%, the Industrial sector rose 0.64%, and the Energy sector fell 0.37%. Performance of Popular Stocks Most major tech stocks closed higher, with Tesla rising over 2%, Netflix up more than 1%, and Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta rising slightly; Google and Amazon fell slightly. Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk said that as its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy is no longer in short supply in the US, the company will sell the drug through telehealth platforms Hims & Hers Health, Ro, and LifeMD to expand its accessibility. Boosted by this news, Hims & Hers closed up more than 23% on Tuesday, and Novo Nordisk's stock price also rose 4%. NXP Semiconductors' shares plunged nearly 7% after releasing quarterly earnings and announcing the appointment of a new CEO, with the company warning that tariff threats created an "extremely uncertain environment." Popular Chinese ADRs closed mixed, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.3%. XPeng Motors fell over 6%, Luckin Coffee fell over 3%, KE Holdings, NIO, and Baidu fell more than 1%; New Oriental Education rose over 4%, Futu Holdings and CHAGEE rose more than 2%. Company News [Meta Launches Standalone AI App to Create Personalized Intelligent Assistant] On Tuesday local time, US tech giant Meta launched a standalone AI application to compete with popular chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT, marking the first step in Meta's efforts to create a more personalized AI assistant. The AI assistant, named Meta AI, is based on the company's large language model, Llama 4, and has previously been used in various Meta social applications, including Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook. With this new standalone app, users can directly access Meta AI without going through other Meta products. [Starbucks Q2 Revenue $8.8 Billion, Below Market Expectations] Starbucks reported Q2 revenue of $8.8 billion, below market expectations of $8.86 billion and compared to $8.56 billion in the same period last year. Same-store sales in the second quarter fell 1%, compared to analysts' expectations of a 0.59% decline; same-store sales in North America in the second quarter fell 1%, compared to analysts' expectations of a 0.44% decline; same-store sales internationally in the second quarter rose 2%, compared to analysts' expectations of a 0.71% decline; same-store sales in China in the second quarter were flat, compared to analysts' expectations of a 2.27% decline. [Intel Updates Foundry Roadmap: 18A Process to Enter Mass Production This Year, 14A Also Makes Progress] On Tuesday local time, Intel held its Foundry Direct Connect event. New CEO Chen Liewu pledged in front of thousands of industry chain customers that the company would continue to invest in its foundry business. Intel also publicly released its latest process technology roadmap on Tuesday. The highly anticipated 18A (1.8-nanometer) process has now entered the risk production phase and is expected to enter mass production this year. Intel also announced that the next-generation 14A process technology after 18A will enter the risk production phase around 2027. The new process is expected to bring a 15%-20% improvement in energy efficiency and a 1.3x increase in chip density. [Amazon Forced to Terminate Plan to Display Tariff Impact on Product Pages] The White House launched an aggressive attack on Amazon. On Tuesday morning, after Amazon considered displaying additional tariff costs for certain products, Trump called Amazon founder Bezos to express his dissatisfaction with the move. There had been reports that Amazon's shopping website would soon display the impact of US tariff policies on product prices next to the total price of each item. At a Tuesday press conference, White House Press Secretary Levitt called the move "hostile and political," adding that she had discussed the matter with Trump earlier.

On Wednesday Eastern Time, the three major indices collectively plummeted, with the Nasdaq leading the decline with a drop of over 3%, influenced by hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Powell. (Minute-line chart of the three major indices, source: TradingView) At the close, the Dow Jones fell 1.73% to 39,669.39, the S&P 500 dropped 2.24% to 5,275.70, and the Nasdaq declined 3.07% to 16,307.16. Powell warned on Wednesday that US President Trump's tariff policies could put the Fed in a dilemma between "controlling inflation" and "supporting economic growth." He hinted that the Fed would prioritize controlling inflation, reiterated a wait-and-see stance, and denied the so-called "Fed put" (i.e., the Fed would intervene during market crashes). Before Powell's speech, US stocks were already declining, and the losses expanded further afterward. Analysts commented, "People expected Powell to remain neutral, but he showed a hawkish tilt." Nvidia's stock price plummeted 6.9% as the US government imposed new restrictions on its chip exports. Other chip stocks also followed suit, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF falling over 4%. AMD dropped 7.4%, and Micron Technology slid 2.4%. ASML, the lithography giant, released disappointing earnings, with its stock plunging 7%, further exacerbating the chip sector's decline. Zachary Hill, portfolio manager at Horizon Investments, stated, "The S&P 500 is now more reliant on the tech sector than ever before." He noted that tech stocks' influence on market movements "can both lift the index and amplify declines," leading the rebound last week but reversing this week. Since April 2, when the Trump administration first announced "reciprocal" tariffs, the S&P 500 has fallen about 7%, the Nasdaq has dropped 7.4%, and the Dow has declined around 6%. Hot Stock Performance Major tech stocks collectively closed lower: Apple fell 3.89%, Microsoft dropped 3.66%, Nvidia declined 6.87%, Google slid 1.91%, Amazon decreased 2.93%, Meta fell 3.68%, and Tesla dropped 4.94%. Popular Chinese stocks mostly fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.72%. Alibaba dropped 4.93%, JD.com fell 5.64%, Pinduoduo declined 1.83%, NIO decreased 2.76%, XPeng Motors fell 5.55%, Li Auto dropped 3.03%, Bilibili slid 3.52%, Baidu decreased 2.42%, NetEase fell 0.63%, and Tencent Music dropped 3.60%. Company News [OpenAI Releases New AI Models o3 and o4-mini] OpenAI released new AI models, o3 and o4-mini, which mimic human reasoning in solving complex programming and visual tasks. It also launched the open-source AI agent CodeX CLI to help users execute programming tasks, enhancing competitive capabilities. [Tesla's Q1 EV Market Share in California Drops to 43.9%] Data shows Tesla's Q1 registrations in California fell 15.1% YoY, with its EV market share in the state dropping from 55.5% YoY to 43.9%. [Apple Announces Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduced by Over 60% Since 2015] On April 16, Apple announced significant progress toward its 2030 goal of achieving carbon neutrality across its entire carbon footprint within five years: global greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced by over 60% compared to the 2015 baseline. Apple also stated it has achieved 99% recycled rare earth elements in all magnets and 99% recycled cobalt in all Apple-designed batteries. [AMD Expects US Export Controls on MI308 to Result in Up to $800 Million in Costs] On April 16, AMD announced it had completed a preliminary assessment of US semiconductor export controls, which apply to its MI308 product. The company expects to apply for a license but cannot guarantee approval. AMD anticipates export controls could result in up to approximately $800 million in inventory, procurement, and related reserve costs. [Rio Tinto: 2025 Production Guidance Remains Unchanged] On April 16, Rio Tinto announced its Q1 2025 production performance. The 2025 production guidance remains unchanged. Bauxite production set a record in both Q1 and March. Pilbara iron ore shipments are expected to be at the lower end of the guidance due to losses from four cyclones in Q1 (previously reported at approximately 13 million mt). Mitigation plans are ready to offset about half the losses, with an additional investment of approximately A$150 million required for repair work and contracted mining operations. Production declines and repair costs will be offset by a lower-than-expected Australian dollar exchange rate. The company's 2025 capital investment share guidance remains unchanged at approximately $11 billion. [Alcoa Reports Q1 Adjusted EBITDA of $855 Million] Alcoa's stock rose over 2% after hours. The company reported Q1 sales of $3.37 billion, compared to an estimate of $3.45 billion. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $855 million, versus an estimate of $786.8 million. Q1 adjusted EPS was $2.15, compared to an estimate of $1.68. The company still forecasts full-year alumina shipments of 13.1 to 13.3 million mt.