[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: A Zinc Smelter in Peru Shut Down After a Fire; LME Zinc Logged Eight Consecutive Gains] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,558.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly moved lower to test a low below $3,542.5/mt, after which bears reduced open interest. LME zinc then rallied to a multi-year high, reaching above $3,633.5/mt. The center then pulled back slightly, and it finally closed higher at $3,587/mt, up $35/mt, a gain of 0.99%. Trading volume fell to 14,070 lots, and open interest decreased by 139 lots to 242,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,004/mt, moved sideways during the Asian session with a low of $2,001.5/mt; LME lead fluctuated upward after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,017/mt, and finally closed at $2,012/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,620 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward, hitting a low of 16,530 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,535 yuan/mt, down 0.33%. On the macro front: India restricted duty-free gold imports; Ukraine reported the largest Russian airstrike since the conflict began; Israel and Lebanon held a new round of negotiations in the US. OPEC+ reportedly plans to continue increasing production, targeting the restoration of all production cuts by the end of September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: the oil price curve is expected to decline within six months; Iran has exhausted its oil storage capacity and will be forced to halt production. China's Ministry of Commerce: China is willing to work with the US to continuously expand the cooperation list. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China is willing to work with the US to translate the new positioning of China-US relations into actions moving in the same direction. The PBOC: a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a 6-month tenor will be conducted on May 15. : Driven by the LME lead rally, SHFE lead rebounded relatively, and suppliers actively made shipments while lowering quoted premiums. Additionally, primary lead smelter supplies were ample, with mainstream production areas quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Secondary lead side, losses remained prominent, and smelters held prices firm while shipping, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market remained in an off-season state, with limited just-in-time procurement from downstream enterprises. After lead prices rebounded, inquiry enthusiasm weakened, with buyers only maintaining just-in-time procurement, and spot market transactions turned sluggish. Inventory: On May 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 265,250 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Today is the delivery day. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory continued to accumulate. Notably, the domestic market has recently underperformed the overseas market for lead prices. The lead ingot import window has entered a closed state this week. Meanwhile, the supply gap for high-grade lead ingots in Southeast Asia remained significant, with spot cargoes maintaining high premiums. In H2, the potential opening of the lead ingot export window and its impact on domestic lead price trends may be worth watching. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Steel] Ukraine's finished steel products fell 15.8% m/m to 460,800 tonnes in April 2026. Steel output fell 25.3% m/m to 517,300 tonnes. Pig iron fell 16.1% m/m to 554,000 tonnes. Jan-Apr steel -7.4% y/y to 2.25 million tonnes, pig iron -0.3% to 2.36 million tonnes, rolled -9.1% to 1.8 million tonnes. April's decline was partly due to an unscheduled shutdown at Zaporizhstal. High electricity/gas prices and CBAM remain pressing issues. In 2025, commercial rolled steel rose 4.8% y/y to 6.52 million tonnes, pig iron +11.2% to 7.88 million tonnes, steel -2.2% to 7.41 million tonnes. GMK Center's Dec forecast: steel output of 7.2 million tonnes in 2026 (base case) or 6.3-6.6 million tonnes in a pessimistic scenario.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has launched an anti-dumping (AD) review investigation into seamless stainless steel pipes from Ukraine, following applications from major regional producers. Current AD duties, ranging from 4.32% to 18.96%, are scheduled to expire on September 6, 2026. However, internal data reveals a 11% decline in EAEU stainless pipe production and a 44% drop in margins between 2023 and 2025. Given these deteriorating economic indicators, the commission will determine whether to maintain the protective measures. The investigation covers seamless pipes with a diameter up to 426 mm, classified under various HS codes within the 7304 heading.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remained Elevated, LME Zinc Under Pressure] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,439/mt. In the early session, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched $3,457/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, bears increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $3,418/mt during the night session, ultimately closing down at $3,441/mt, a decline of $6/mt or 0.17%. Trading volume rose to 10,480 lots, and open interest increased by 3,121 lots to 240,000 lots.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.