[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Easing Costs and Sluggish Demand Keep Aluminum Alloy Prices in the Doldrums] Last Friday, the ADC12 market was generally in the doldrums. As aluminum prices weakened, cost support eased, and some enterprises actively lowered their quoted prices.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 20 – April 24), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 524.15 yuan/gram and closed at 498.3 yuan/gram, down 28.2 yuan/gram or 5.36% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 532.35 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 494.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 383.95 yuan/gram and closed at 359.65 yuan/gram, down 25.1 yuan/gram or 6.52% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 390 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 356.8 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,536 lots with a total turnover of 7.509 billion yuan and open interest of 15,520 lots, an increase of 98 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,748 lots with a total turnover of 3.647 billion yuan and open interest of 7,843 lots, an increase of 428 lots WoW. [Key News] US-Iran conflict: geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the second round of US-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. Trump stated he had ordered the sinking of any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, announced a three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, invited Lebanese and Israeli leaders to visit the US, and warned Iran that the US would resort to military means if Iran refused to negotiate. Iran stated the focus of negotiations had shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire. US Fed monetary policy: Warsh expressed his policy stance favoring interest rate cuts at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and advocated a return of monetary policy to its fundamentals. This shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction. Trade and tariffs: after the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs via Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. South Africa's president accepted US credentials, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at month-end, the US may leverage the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, effective from the trading session on April 27, the trading commission and intraday close-today commission for the platinum and palladium June contracts would be reduced from 0.025% to 0.01%. Events to watch: continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and speeches by US Fed officials. Monitor the trial results of palladium in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end. Precious metals benefited from US midterm election dynamics. Strategically, maintain a bullish stance on platinum and palladium, with pullbacks as opportunities to go long. Watch for regional palladium premiums in the US market. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling are key variables. Risk-wise, be alert to fluctuations in the Middle East situation and delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

[Inventory Trends Diverge Significantly in and outside China; Aluminum Prices Continue LME-Outperforms-SHFE Pattern] Negotiations in the Middle East experienced repeated twists and turns, and geopolitical risks had not yet fully been cleared. However, the widening supply gap outside China and the steady drawdown of LME inventory jointly supported LME aluminum prices in holding up well. In China, social inventory of aluminum ingots remained at elevated levels, with the strength of demand recovery and the pace of inventory drawdown becoming the core variables influencing SHFE price trends.

[Strait Blockade Remains in Stalemate, LME Outperforms SHFE for Aluminum] Overall, the strait blockade continued. The supply gap outside China and the ongoing drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well, while China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Geopolitical Risks Eased, SS Futures Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Recovered SMM April 22 reported that SS futures showed a trend of stopping falling and rebounding. The US-Iran conflict cooled down, with the US announcing an indefinite ceasefire and Iran suspending military operations. Influenced by this, non-ferrous futures strengthened, and SS futures rose in tandem. As of the morning session close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,920 yuan/mt. Spot market side, although SS futures stopped falling today, futures prices had already pulled back from earlier levels. In addition, after stainless steel spot prices surged significantly, downstream acceptance was low and transactions were weak. However, traders held low-priced cargoes from earlier periods and had room to offer concessions, so spot quotes pulled back accordingly, with inquiries and transactions recovering somewhat. The most-traded SS contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,885 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 35-235 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The current stainless steel market is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." Driven by futures, spot quotes strengthened somewhat, but cautious wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users persisted, with concerns over short-term price fluctuations and purchases yet to materialize...