[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bears Add Positions, Aluminum Alloy Night Session Plunges, UAE Aluminum Scrap Export Ban Takes Effect] Overnight, aluminum alloy futures weakened sharply. The night session opened at 22,850 yuan/mt, closed at 22,720 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt, or 1.69%.

The benchmark price for premium heavy melting scrap (HMS 1&2 80:20) exported from the United States east coast to the primary Turkish import hub suffered a steep correction, dropping by $14 per metric ton week-on-week to settle at $388 per ton CFR. Trading desks confirmed that the rapid price deterioration reflects a complete freeze in forward replacement bookings by Turkish electric arc furnace (EAF) mills. Facing heavily compressed domestic and export rebar rolling margins, Mediterranean producers are actively lowering structural melting utilization rates and rejecting high-priced international raw metal inputs.

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

[SMM Steel] Japan exported 2.35 million mt of ferrous scrap in January-April 2026, down 9.9% year on year, while April exports fell 10.1% YoY to 667,678 mt. Vietnam remained the largest importer of Japanese scrap during the period, importing 1.02 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Bangladesh imported 516,219 mt, up 22.3%, while South Korea imported 350,019 mt, down 17.9% YoY. Meanwhile, Japanese scrap exports to Thailand more than doubled to 173,869 mt during the four-month period.

The global copper scrap market is entering a period of structural tightening as geopolitical tensions and industrial policy increasingly reshape trade flows. The relationship between the United States and China sits at the center of this transition, particularly as Washington considers restricting exports of high-quality copper scrap in 2027 while China remains heavily dependent on imported secondary copper feedstock. China’s copper scrap imports remained strong in 2024 at 441,080 MT, underscoring continued demand from secondary refiners serving the EV, renewable energy, power grid, and manufacturing sectors. However, imports have collapsed in 2025 to 143,271 MT, with current projections for 2026 falling further to just 5,305 MT. The sharp decline signals a rapid deterioration in China’s direct access to imported scrap feedstock amid rising geopolitical friction and tariffs. China’s existing 10% tariff on US-origin scrap has already reduced the competitiveness of direct shipments, although clean high-grade material has continued to move because of favorable processing economics. Trade flows indicate that copper scrap is increasingly being rerouted through Southeast Asia rather than moving directly from the United States into China. US copper scrap exports to ASEAN rose from 170,687 tonnes in 2024 to 222,993 tonnes in 2025, while Chinese imports of copper scrap from ASEAN increased from 434,176 tonnes to 529,345 tonnes over the same period. The correlation strongly suggests ASEAN is emerging as a critical intermediary hub for scrap aggregation, processing, blending, and re-export into China. This shift reflects a broader restructuring of the global scrap trade as market participants adapt to tariffs, geopolitical risk, and the growing probability of tighter controls on high-quality US scrap exports. Countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are increasingly functioning as alternative routing channels within the global secondary copper supply chain. The timing is significant because the United States continues to export around 1 million tonnes of copper scrap globally in 2025 while domestic secondary refinery production remains limited at approximately 50kt. This imbalance is becoming central to the policy debate in Washington. As US demand for copper accelerates through grid modernization, electrification, AI-driven data center expansion, and defense manufacturing, policymakers are increasingly questioning whether high-grade recyclable copper should continue flowing overseas while the US remains dependent on imported refined copper. Current policy discussions focus on retaining a larger share of premium copper scrap within the domestic market beginning as early as 2027. Although proposals currently stop short of a full export ban, any retention mechanism would still materially reduce export availability for high-quality grades such as bare bright copper and No.1 copper scrap. For China, tighter access to premium scrap has important implications beyond the secondary market. High-quality scrap directly competes with refined copper cathode because it offers high recovery rates with lower processing intensity than primary smelting. If imported scrap availability continues to tighten, Chinese refiners will likely need to increase refined copper purchases to maintain output levels. This dynamic could become increasingly supportive for refined copper markets globally. The primary copper market is already facing structural constraints from weak mine supply growth, declining ore grades, permitting delays, and years of underinvestment in new projects. A simultaneous tightening in high-grade scrap availability would amplify pressure on refined copper balances precisely as demand linked to electrification continues to strengthen. As a result, the market could see narrower scrap discounts relative to cathode, firmer copper premiums in Asia, and increased volatility across both COMEX and LME pricing. The secondary copper market is therefore becoming an increasingly important variable in the broader refined copper outlook. Ultimately, the copper scrap market is no longer operating purely on economic arbitrage. Strategic resource security is becoming a defining driver of trade flows and policy decisions. The rapid growth in ASEAN intermediary trade, combined with collapsing direct Chinese scrap imports and growing US policy intervention, signals that the global copper supply chain is entering a new phase of fragmentation — one that is likely to tighten both scrap and refined copper markets into 2026 and beyond. Author: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Market Analyst For more information or to discuss market dynamics, you can contact me on shairazahmed@smm.cn

On May 12, the 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), drew to a successful close at the Sheraton Grande Tokyo Bay Hotel in Tokyo, Japan! Following the event, SMM arranged an overseas field trip for delegates. The delegation paid visits to renowned local recycling enterprises in Japan to learn about operational practices and technological advancements in Japan's recycled non-ferrous metal sector. On the afternoon of May 13, the delegation visited Noda Metal Industry and received a warm welcome from the firm’s management. Company Profile Noda Metal Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Noda City, Chiba Prefecture, and is engaged in the recycling of various scrap metals including aluminum and copper. The company is committed to creating recycling value and contributing to society through its scrap metal recycling business, and therefore purchases and recycles scrap metals under strict quality management. It primarily recovers or sells scrap metals generated from demolition sites, factories, and other locations, with products exported to Southeast Asia, China, and other countries. With stable business capabilities and high-quality services, the company has established a scalable operational advantage. Its current annual aluminum scrap trading volume exceeds 20,000 mt, and copper scrap trading volume exceeds 5,000 mt, continuously contributing to the development of the circular economy. This visit was an important practice of SMM's efforts to build an international exchange platform for the recycled metal industry, creating a bridge for direct dialogue and experience sharing between Chinese and Japanese enterprises. Through on-site observation and face-to-face exchanges, attendees gained in-depth understanding of Noda Metal Industry Co., Ltd.'s technological advantages, operational management experience, and market strategies in the recycled metal sector. They gained particularly valuable insights in areas such as refined processing of scrap metals and collaborative operations across the entire industry chain, providing valuable references for enterprises in China to optimize production models and enhance technological capabilities.