The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Reference Price (HMA) for the first half of June 2026. The HMA for the second half of May is as follows: the nickel price is $18,799.3 per ton (compared to the first half of May 2026, 18849.29 USD/ton), a decrease of 50 USD of 5.88%; the price of cobalt is 55,851.43 US dollars per ton; the HMA of iron ore is 1.6 USD/ton; and the HMA of chrome ore price is 6.37 USD/ton. • Ni 1.2%: USD 49.84/wmt (↓ $0.1) • Ni 1.3%: USD 54.61/wmt (↓ $0.11) • Ni 1.4%: USD 60.00/wmt (↓ $0.05) • Ni 1.5%: USD 65.25/wmt (↓ $0.06) • Ni 1.6%: USD 70.75/wmt (↓ $0.08)

May 31, 2026 Over the past two weeks, the price of gold has failed to recover further. Instead, its failure to break through the falling 50-day moving average increased downward pressure, causing gold to be pushed back down to $4,366 this morning—and thus to the 200-day moving average—amid the resurgent Iran crisis. Silver presents a similar picture; here, even lower price targets are in play. Overall, precious metals have been in a healthy but treacherous and confusing correction since the end of January, one that is likely not yet over. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains the dominant and highly unpredictable risk factor for commodity and financial markets . A sustainable solution does not appear to be in sight. Rather, physical oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-crisis levels. Europe’s reserves have so far cushioned the supply bottlenecks but are now nearing depletion. As long as the logistical bottlenecks remain unresolved, volatility will stay high. In addition, the vulnerability of financial markets is increasing. Short-term signs of peace can abruptly push oil prices down, while setbacks or military escalations drive them back up just as quickly—an environment in which precious metals are also suffering. On the macro side, however, the dilemma for risk assets is intensifying, particularly for the heavily overbought stock markets. The recent price increases caused by rising energy prices heighten the risk of accelerating inflation, meaning central banks could be forced to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy. Whether the central banks can actually implement this at all, given the complex and fragile starting point, remains questionable, however. However, the mere expectation of higher real interest rates could put further pressure on the gold price, even if this interest rate trend ultimately fails to materialize. At the same time, rising energy prices are supporting the inflation outlook and, in the long term, the demand for inflation-protected assets . China continues to shift into gold Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, as of May 25, 2026. © Bloomberg At the same time, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, while official gold reserves continue to rise. China is thus consistently shifting assets from dollars to gold. However, the decline in Treasury holdings is also, to some extent, a matter of accounting. A significant portion of China’s reserves was apparently held through custodians such as Belgium or transferred to the balance sheets of state-owned banks. Economically, the exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds thus remains, even if it no longer appears directly under China’s name in official statistics. The composition has therefore changed more significantly than the actual risk. What is changing, however, is the nature of sovereign risk management. Like other strategically minded nations, China is gradually reducing its vulnerability to assets carrying political counterparty risk. While U.S. Treasuries are liquid and deeply traded, they ultimately remain claims within a Western-dominated financial system. Under extreme conditions, they can be frozen or subject to sanctions. Gold, on the other hand, has no issuer, no counterparty risk, no digital barriers to access, and has been money for millennia. The Chinese are not seeking an abrupt exit from the Western financial system, but rather a reduction in dependence and greater freedom of action. Nevertheless, the price of gold has been in a correction since the end of January, which, in our view, is more than justified and, above all, healthy following the spectacular gains of the past three and a half years. Semiconductor Boom vs. Dot-Com Bubble, May 27, 2026. © The Great Martis The only real cause for concern is that stock markets have recently surged into parabolic price movements amid a very fragile, geopolitically strained environment. The AI rally has driven semiconductor stocks in particular into completely overvalued territory: The semiconductor sector is currently more overbought than it has been in twenty years. NVIDIA is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of around 33 and has posted a 44% gain in the last two months alone. Micron Technology has seen its share price rise by 1,450% over the past 14 months! Margin levels (i.e., speculative trading on credit) stand at approximately $1.3 trillion (5.2% of GDP), exceeding the peak levels of 2008 and the dot-com era. Should a reversal and correction occur here, precious metals are likely to be dragged down with them in a temporary liquidity crunch. That is why we would like to mention our worst-case scenario of $3,500 for the gold price once again at this point. Gold – Our price target “200-day line” was reached today Gold in US dollars, daily chart as of May 28, 2026. © GOLD.DE As suspected, the falling 50-day line ($4,628) has stopped the gold price twice on its way up over the past six weeks. In light of this difficult-to-overcome and psychologically burdensome barrier, a new, sharp downward wave began on May 12, which today reached our repeatedly mentioned price target in the form of the 200-day line ($4,392). This means that, in our view, the bulk of the correction potential for the gold price has been exhausted for now. We had consistently emphasized that the first support level at the 200-day moving average of $4,100 from March 23 did not constitute a sufficiently solid foundation. However, the problem is that the silver price has not yet reached its 200-day moving average (US$66.56) during the correction that has been underway since late January, and no real panic has yet been observed in the precious metals sector. Despite the already oversold conditions in the gold market, we would therefore not be surprised to see the correction continue down to the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart ($4,289). Overall, the price action reflects a typical spring correction. We already see buying opportunities again between $4,250 and $4,400. We initially expect a bottom to form in this range, which should then lay the foundation for a foreseeable recovery and the summer rally. Conclusion: Gold – Correction Continues, Buying Opportunities Ahead Gold and silver have been undergoing a healthy but not yet complete correction since late January: Gold failed twice at the falling 50-day moving average and has now fallen back to its 200-day moving average. Silver, on the other hand, still faces significantly more downside risk, as the 200-day moving average has not yet been tested at all. Although a test of the lower weekly Bollinger Bands around $4,280 on the gold market would therefore not be surprising, we already see attractive entry prices between $4,250 and $4,400. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain high and are increasing volatility in the short term: The Iran crisis and the ongoing bottlenecks through the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on commodity and energy markets and weaken Europe’s security of supply. In the long term, however, China’s shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold supports demand for precious metals. Only a broad-based sell-off in the heavily overbought stock markets—driven by high margin leverage and an overheated semiconductor/AI rally—could also put gold under significant short-term pressure in the event of a liquidity crunch; our worst-case scenario therefore remains $3,500. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-correction-continues-buying-opportunities-are-emerging

On May 22, TISCO announced its tender purchase price for high-carbon ferrochrome for June at 8,295 yuan per 50 metric base tons. Tsingshan Group set its price at 8,495 yuan per 50 metric base tons simultaneously. Both prices were unchanged month-on-month from May, largely in line with market expectations. Market sentiment has stabilized, and retail prices of ferrochrome have halted their decline and leveled off.

Early this week, rising US inflation data combined with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept international oil prices high. Market bets on rate hikes within the year intensified, US Treasury yields climbed and pushed the US dollar stronger, and copper prices pulled back under pressure. Subsequently, Trump paused military action against Iran, the US dollar index weakened, and copper prices staged a recovery. However, prospects for US-Iran negotiations remained uncertain, with Iran insisting on its core demands and disputes over Strait of Hormuz transit fees persisting, keeping the market in a wait-and-see mode regarding negotiation outcomes. By mid-week, Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran were entering the final stage, and some oil tankers departed the Strait of Hormuz, easing geopolitical risks at the margin. The rebound in risk appetite drove copper prices higher. Overall, the macro theme this week remained inflation and interest rate pressures capping upside room for copper prices, while fluctuating US-Iran negotiation expectations and geopolitical disruptions drove futures to fluctuate at highs. Fundamentals side, supply remained tight overall this week. Early in the week, arrivals of imported and domestic cargoes edged up slightly, marginally easing the tight supply situation. However, as smelters entered concentrated maintenance periods, domestic cargo arrivals shrank and imported cargo arrivals remained limited, tightening spot circulation again, with high-quality copper sources particularly scarce. Demand side, downstream procurement sentiment recovered somewhat during the copper price pullback phase, with actual transactions improving at the margin. However, as copper prices returned to highs, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified, with most maintaining just-in-time procurement, and overall market trading activity remained subdued. Inventory side, as of Thursday May 21, inventory edged up 500 mt WoW from Thursday to 243,800 mt, with overall inventory changes limited. In summary, current fundamentals present a pattern where tight supply supports prices while weak demand limits upside elasticity. Looking ahead to next week, macro logic is expected to continue revolving around US-Iran negotiations, Strait of Hormuz transit, and fluctuating US Fed policy expectations. If US-Iran negotiations continue to progress, easing geopolitical risks may support copper prices, while oil prices and inflation expectations will continue to disturb the market, and a stronger US dollar and US Treasury yields will also cap upside room for copper prices. Fundamentals side, smelter maintenance and tight spot circulation will continue to support the price floor, but demand is unlikely to see significant volume expansion under high copper prices. Copper prices are expected to move sideways in the near term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $13,300-13,750/mt, and SHFE copper between 103,000-105,800 yuan/mt. Spot side, against the backdrop of coexisting tight supply and weak demand, premiums are expected to remain firm with fluctuations, and actual transactions will still depend on downstream restocking willingness after copper prices pull back. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477.5/mt, dipped to $13,461/mt in early trading, then gradually shifted its center upward to reach $13,676/mt, and finally closed at $13,654.5/mt, up 1.69%, with a trading volume of 17,000 lots and open interest of 273,000 lots, down 3,375 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 103,950 yuan/mt, touching a low of 103,950 yuan/mt right at the open, then shifted its center upward to reach a high of 105,190 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 105,030 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 37,000 lots and open interest of 133,000 lots, down 3,198 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

SMM May 15 News: In May 2026, the global molybdenum market remained in a persistently tight supply-demand pattern, with prices extending and accelerating the upward trend seen in April. International molybdenum oxide prices kept surging at high levels, while domestic molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum prices repeatedly hit new stage highs.