SMM News, July 15: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE copper rising 0.57%, SHFE aluminum edging down, SHFE lead falling 1.8%, SHFE zinc up 0.45%, SHFE tin up 1.36%, and SHFE nickel down 0.43%. Furthermore, aluminum casting most-traded futures edged down, alumina most-traded rose 0.89%, lithium carbonate most-traded fell 2.33%, silicon metal most-traded fell 0.35%, and polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.04%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 1.13%, rebar rose 1.24%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.09%, and stainless steel rose 0.76%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.12%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.1%. Overseas base metal market: As of 11:42, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.28%, LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead fell 0.32%, LME zinc rose 0.73%, LME tin rose 0.28%, and LME nickel edged up. Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.8%, and COMEX silver fell 0.67%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.18%; SHFE silver most-traded rose 1.03%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 2.35%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 3.6%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping futures contract rose 2.78% to 2,572.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 15, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: High-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,205 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,095 yuan/mt, up 1,085 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-session rising streak and fell again today, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front Domestic: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP rose 4.7% YoY; national economy operated within a reasonable range; new momentum grew rapidly] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that, according to preliminary estimates, H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY at constant prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; the secondary industry was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9%; and the tertiary industry was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2%. By quarter, Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY and Q2 grew 4.3%. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP rose 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces cultivated and strengthened and high-quality development progressing toward new heights of quality. At the same time, we must recognize that external instabilities and uncertainties are mounting, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China remains pronounced, and the foundation for economic improvement still needs consolidation. In the next phase, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensify counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continue to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, enhance growth and revitalize existing assets, focus on building a strong Chinese market, accelerate the cultivation and strengthening of new momentum, step up efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 911.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 426.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations and 1,400 billion yuan of 6-month outright reverse repo operations today. With 15 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing today, the operations resulted in a net injection of 911.5 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index extended the previous trading day's decline, falling 0.11% to 100.83. Data: A key turning point signal emerged in US inflation. June CPI recorded its first MoM decline in six years, while core inflation was basically flat, prompting the market to dramatically scale back bets on a July rate hike by the US Fed. On Tuesday, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% YoY, below market expectations of 3.8% and a significant pullback from the prior reading of 4.2%. Core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, also below expectations of 2.8% and the prior reading of 2.9%. (Wall Street See) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. For September, the probability of holding rates steady is 42.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 7.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Walsh stated that he places equal emphasis on the Fed's employment and inflation mandates—a point he has repeatedly stressed since assuming the role of Fed Chairman. "In the mandate you have given us, we do not favor one part over the other," Walsh told members of the House Financial Services Committee. "Price stability and full employment are not trade-offs. I am committed to achieving both. When later asked if he supported targeted measures to address the unemployment rate and employment opportunity gaps between Black and White Americans, Walsh stated: "The US must not leave anyone behind. Economic opportunity is critical to the trajectory of growth for the US over the next five to ten years, meaning every American needs the opportunity to be productive." (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research note indicated that US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis, with YoY growth pulling back to 3.5%; core CPI was flat MoM and up 2.6% YoY, both below market expectations. The decline in energy prices was the main driver of cooling inflation. Looking ahead, as tensions escalate again between the US and Iran, the outlook for energy inflation remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the AI inflation effect is gradually materializing, with upstream hardware supply-demand mismatch, rising prices for software and related products, and AI capex boosting aggregate demand all potentially making core inflation stickier. For policy, the cooling inflation data in June supports the Fed holding rates steady at its July meeting, but recent remarks by Waller suggest [1] the Fed is reassessing the possibility of a "preventive rate hike." We maintain our base case of no rate hikes for the year, but flag that the bar for hiking has already fallen. If one or two hotter-than-expected inflation prints emerge, it could push the Fed to further discuss rate hike options. A CITIC Securities research note stated that US June CPI came in below expectations across the board, retail gas prices fell, core services inflation was flat MoM, and the second-round inflation effect was minimal. CITIC Securities believes US inflation is not sticky, noting that headline CPI YoY has definitively passed its cycle peak and is expected to trend mildly downward in Q3, hit bottom in September, rise to a secondary peak around year-end, and then decline rapidly next March. CITIC Securities still expects the Fed to stay on hold for the full year, sees room for derivative-priced rate hike expectations to be revised further down, considers US Treasuries currently unsuitable for allocation-based opportunities—with short-dated bonds better than long-dated ones—and believes the US dollar index faces difficulty sustaining upward momentum but has support, while the technology-driven theme in US equities retains its appeal. On the data front: Today will see the release of figures including China's June total electricity consumption YoY, China's June total electricity consumption, the US June PPI annual rate, the US June PPI monthly rate, the US July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Eurozone May industrial output MoM rate, Canada's May wholesale sales MoM rate, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision as of July 15. Additionally, attention needs to be paid to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on the state of the economy; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference to brief on the execution of monetary policy and financial statistics for H1 2026; the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. Fed Governor Barr spoke on artificial intelligence at the Fed’s annual financial inclusion conference; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a fireside chat; Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks at the Fed’s annual financial inclusion conference; Fed Governor Bowman also spoke at the same conference; permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President Williams gave a speech; Fed Chair Warsh attended the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Fed’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report; Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke; the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers held a monetary policy press conference. ASML published its Q2 2026 financial report. Crude oil: As of 11:42, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 1.32%. Despite improved risk sentiment from cooling inflation, the crude oil market remains driven by geopolitics. The US announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade on vessels transiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, with escalating Middle East tensions supporting oil prices. Meanwhile, the US and European refined product markets are historically tight, heightened Middle East strains have fanned fuel supply concerns, and high oil prices continue to pressure consumers. Goldman’s Privorotsky believes Brent around $85 itself is manageable, the real story is in refined products, distillates rather than crude oil are the true inflation signal, and heating oil futures have hit new highs since the conflict erupted, highlighting tightness in the product market, with any further disruption disproportionately hitting inflation. (Wall Street CN) Additionally, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement on the 15th that as long as the US continues attacks on Iran, the region will not export “a drop of oil” or natural gas. (Xinhua) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 15: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets broadly rose, with only LME lead, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE nickel declining together. SHFE lead led the declines with a 1.45% drop, while LME tin led the gains with a 2.39% increase. SHFE tin rose 1.45%, LME copper gained 0.9%, and the % changes for other metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 1.08%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.11%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose. Rebar and iron ore both gained around 0.8%, with rebar up 0.88% and iron ore up 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) rose 0.73%. Coking coal and coke saw coking coal rise 0.4% and coke rise 0.35%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 1.31% and COMEX silver rose 1.84%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.89% and SHFE silver rose 1.98%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 a.m. on July 15: >> Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front China: [China's H1 Imports and Exports Scale Surpassed 25 Trillion Yuan for First Time, up 16.9% YoY; Strong Foreign Trade Growth Momentum Expected to Continue in H2] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to report on China’s foreign trade performance this year. At the conference, it was reported that China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth in H1, maintaining a sound operational trend. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts reached 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6% YoY. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons are iterating rapidly, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1, China's total goods trade import and export value was 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Of this, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of growth; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, with the growth rate 8.7 percentage points higher than that of exports. In June alone, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, marking 17 consecutive months of growth. From the export perspective, the product structure further optimized. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1% YoY, accounting for 63.5% of total export value, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39% YoY. (CCTV News) >> Click for Details SMM compiled import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, details as follows: >> Click for Detailed Import and Export Data US Dollar Side: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.38% to 100.93. The US inflation data released on Tuesday came in below expectations, leading traders to scale back bets on US Fed rate hikes. Data released by the US Labor Department on the 14th showed that, dragged down by falling energy prices, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase pulled back in June, though inflationary pressure remained significant. The data showed that while the US June CPI YoY increase slowed to 3.5% from May's 4.2%, it was still significantly above the US Fed's 2% inflation target. The Labor Department stated that the decline in energy prices was the biggest factor pulling back the CPI increase for the month, offsetting price increases in other areas like housing and food. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said inflationary pressure eased somewhat in June, but the slowing inflation trend may be short-lived as military confrontation between the US and Iran heats up again. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) After June inflation data came in below expectations, the CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of a Fed rate hike this month fell to 17%, compared to 42% yesterday. The June CPI data showed a 0.4% MoM decline and a 3.5% YoY increase, indicating a milder price trend than economists predicted. Even excluding the significant drop in oil prices last month, the inflation figures were better than expected. Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital noted, "This data exceeded our expectations, and even if it hasn't completely eliminated the possibility of a rate hike this month, it has significantly reduced that probability." According to FedWatch data, the market broadly expects at least one rate hike within the year. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report stated that the US June CPI was broadly lower than expected, retail oil prices fell, core services items showed zero MoM growth, and second-round inflation effects were minimal. CITIC Securities believes US inflation stickiness is weak, the headline CPI YoY has confirmed it passed its peak for this round, and Q3 will generally show a mild pullback, hitting bottom in September, before rising to a secondary high at year-end and rapidly declining next March. CITIC Securities still expects the US Fed to hold steady all year, sees further downside room for rate hike expectations priced into derivatives, believes US Treasuries are currently unsuitable for tactical allocation opportunities (short-end bonds are better than long-end bonds), thinks the US dollar index has difficulty surging sustainably but has support, and views the tech-driven theme in US equities as still attractive. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 42.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 7.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Side: Data to be released today include China’s Q2 GDP YoY rate, China’s June total retail sales YoY, China’s June industrial production above designated size YoY, China’s June total electricity consumption YoY, China’s June total electricity consumption, US June PPI YoY, US June PPI MoM, US July NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, Eurozone May industrial production MoM, Canada May wholesale sales MoM, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of July 15. Additionally, the NBS will release its monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance and another press briefing on the implementation of H1 2026 monetary policy and financial statistics data. The National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr will speak on AI at the Fed's annual Financial Inclusion Conference. 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Fed Governor Bowman will speak at the Fed's annual Financial Inclusion Conference. FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver remarks. Fed Chairman Walsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the "Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report." BOE Governor Bailey will speak. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. ASML will release its Q2 2026 financial results. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose together, with WTI crude up 2.16% and Brent crude up 2.21%. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran heightened concerns about supply disruption risks. However, news last night indicated that US President Donald Trump abandoned his idea of imposing a 20% compensation fee on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz just a day after it was widely criticized as impractical. (From Wall Street CN APP) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventories fell by 564,000 barrels, following a decline of 399,000 barrels the previous week. API Cushing crude oil inventories rose by 238,000 barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 69,000 barrels previously. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.664 million barrels (prior: -2.929 million barrels), while distillate inventories rose by 2.259 million barrels (prior: -1.801 million barrels). (From Wall Street CN APP) Foreign media reported, citing sources, that Iran had begun secretly moving oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days, before the escalation of hostilities and the US announcement that it would re-impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Vessel tracking data shows that over the past week, a total of six US-sanctioned very large crude carriers (VLCCs) sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off. These six tankers can collectively transport 12 million barrels of crude oil. These vessels, along with other Iran-linked ships, completed their voyages after the US revoked the license on July 7 that allowed Iran to temporarily sell crude oil. Besides these six Iranian VLCCs, a significant number of US-sanctioned vessels linked to Tehran have departed from the Strait of Hormuz since July 7. These ships are part of the 57 million barrels of crude oil that Iran successfully exported between the two rounds of US naval blockades. (Jin10 Data APP)

H1 2026 silver saw a sharp spike to 30,900 yuan/kg in January, then plunged 55% to 13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and Fed policy reversal from easing to hawkish. Supply grew steadily; PV silver demand fell 21% YoY. H2 outlook: wait for inflation signals and Fed pivot, silver likely remains under pressure.

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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[Bearish for Precious Metals] US Treasuries and the Dollar Stay High, Opportunity Cost Pressure Persists Currently, US Treasury yields remain in a high range overall, with the 10-year yield trading around 4.4%-4.5%. Real interest rates staying high continue to raise the holding cost of precious metals. Meanwhile, the US dollar index remains at a relatively strong level, putting passive pressure on precious metals. This forms a dual pressure pattern of “rising yields + stronger dollar”, limiting short-term upside room. Institutional capital continues to flow out, and the trend of ETF selling has not reversed. Global gold ETFs continue to see net outflows, with the holdings of the leading SPDR Gold ETF continuing to decline. Onshore gold ETFs in China also face sustained redemption pressure. The absence of incremental institutional buying leaves futures with insufficient rebound momentum. Every rise encounters concentrated profit-taking selling from previously trapped positions, and a trend-following rally lacks capital support. Tightening Trading Rules Combined with Off-Season Consumption Leave Short-Term Support Weak The SHFE raised the margin requirement for SHFE gold futures to 16% and expanded the daily price limit to 14% starting July 2, causing short-term highly leveraged speculative funds to deleverage and exit, and market liquidity to marginally contract. Meanwhile, the current June-August period is the traditional off-season for global gold jewelry consumption. During price declines, insufficient buying support tends to amplify fluctuations. [Bullish for Precious Metals] Warsh Confirms Inflation Cooling, Tightening Expectations Marginally Ease In a speech in Sintra on Wednesday evening, Warsh explicitly stated that “inflation upside risks in the US have eased over the past four weeks,” which directly alleviated market concerns about persistent sticky inflation. Precious metals prices rose in tandem during the speech. Overall market expectations for rate hikes cooled, providing fundamental support for precious metals’ valuation recovery. This is the core short-term bullish driver. US June ADP Employment Misses Expectations, Sending Signals of Cooling Labor Market US private sector employment increased by 98,000 in June according to ADP, below the market expectation of 118,000, marking the smallest gain since March. The previous figure was revised down to 122,000. The data show that job seekers’ search periods are lengthening and the pace of job creation is slowing. A cooling labor market will gradually transmit to wage growth and core services inflation, weakening the core rationale for the US Fed to maintain tightening and rate hikes. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June Was Overall Below Market Expectations The data showed a combination of “slowing expansion + rapid cost cooling,” with the Prices Paid Index plunging 9.1 points to 73, the largest one-month drop since July 2022, indicating that the pace of raw material cost increases has significantly slowed. Industrial inflation pressure rapidly released, strengthening the certainty of an inflation downturn and reserving room for a US Fed policy pivot. [Macro Summary] Current June ADP and PMI data missed expectations, releasing signals of cooling employment and inflation. Compounded by Warsh confirming Wednesday night that inflation had eased, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes experienced a marginal pullback. The remaining core data window this week is the June non-farm payrolls report and the initial jobless claims data for the week. The data results will directly verify the sustainability of the cooling trend and determine the extent of the revision of rate hike expectations.

[Geopolitical Risks Subside: How Will the Zinc Market React?] The Middle East conflict has recently shown clear signs of de-escalation. The market is now fully pricing in a U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. What impact will this have on the zinc market?