From the perspective of Sprott’s experts, gold remains a central strategic building block for investors, even if the precious metal suffers in the short term from the rise in US Treasury yields.

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

On Monday Eastern Time, Bank of America issued a report warning that central banks around the world have been selling US Treasuries since March this year, indicating that they are reducing their investments in US dollar assets and seeking investments in other assets. Bank of America warned that this selling trend is unusual amid the current weakness of the US dollar. They also expressed concerns about the future demand for US Treasuries from overseas central banks. "Unusual" Selling On Monday Eastern Time, a team led by Meghan Swiber, a strategist at Bank of America, released a report titled "Cracks Appear in Overseas Demand for US Treasuries." Data in the report showed that, in the week ending June 11, global central banks and other official entities reduced their average holdings of US Treasuries at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by $17 billion, with a cumulative reduction of $48 billion since the end of March. In addition, foreign holdings of the US Fed's reverse repo facility have decreased by about $15 billion since the end of March. Analysts wrote in the report that this selling behavior is "unusual" because central banks typically purchase US Treasuries when the US dollar is weak, but their actions this year have diverged from this pattern amid the dollar's weakness. Prospects for US Treasury Demand Are Concerning In recent months, international market interest in US Treasuries has attracted increasing attention. Since US President Trump took office, his chaotic trade and fiscal policies have disrupted financial markets, leading overseas buyers to tend to avoid US assets—the so-called "sell America" trade. Year-to-date, the US dollar index has fallen by 9.48%, reaching a low point over the past three years, partly due to concerns that tariffs will affect the US economic outlook. "This capital flow may reflect a shift in the official sector's holdings from the US dollar to diversification," the strategists wrote, adding that they "remain concerned about the prospects for foreign demand for US Treasuries." Overseas investors have been a significant force in purchasing US Treasuries. In fact, according to the US Fed's capital flow data, in Q1 this year, almost all of the demand for US Treasuries in the market came from broker-dealers and foreign investors. Swiber wrote that this highlights "a concerning picture." She said, "The future trajectory of overseas demand is concerning, especially considering that a growing number of global investors wish to reduce their US asset holdings or increase their hedging ratios." The strategists also pointed out that foreign investors' participation in recent 2-year and 20-year Treasury auctions has "continued to weaken."