June 21, 2026 As of June 19, 2026, by Florian Grummes While the start of spring on March 23 initially sparked a broad recovery in the price of silver and even led to a surprising peak of $89.36, silver prices have come under significant pressure again since May 13. It wasn’t until a sell-off low of $61.50 that a strong—though so far short-lived—rally to $71.55 began last week. Since Wednesday evening, however, precious metal prices have once again come under heavy selling pressure. The trigger was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which caused a sharp pullback in precious metal prices. The open price gap at $68.35 was quickly closed, after which the silver price fell further to $63.28. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the previous recovery has already been lost. Since the beginning of the year, silver has also posted a decline of about 10%. Compared to the price of gold, however, silver has proven somewhat more stable and has so far managed to narrowly hold above its March low of around $61. Interest Rate Shock Following Leadership Change at the Fed The already challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is now facing additional headwinds from monetary policy. At its June 17, 2026, meeting, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, left key interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, but at the same time signaled that, from the central bank’s perspective, inflation remains significantly too high. This has brought the possibility of a more restrictive monetary policy more sharply into the markets’ focus, as several Fed policymakers consider an interest rate hike possible this year. For precious metals, this is a rather negative signal, as a great many market participants remain heavily focused on U.S. monetary policy. Higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and a stronger dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset like silver, thereby limiting its upside potential. Price Declines Following a Change in Leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve © Barclays, Bloomberg Statistically speaking, a change in leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve is often followed by significant price declines in the stock and financial markets during the first three months, as market participants must first reassess the monetary policy stance and reaction patterns. At the same time, decision-making processes and communication practices take time to establish themselves, which can lead to increased volatility and cautious positioning in the markets in the short term. Of particular importance this time is the shift in communication at the top of the central bank. Under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, the previous practice of providing advance notice regarding the future path of interest rates has largely been discontinued, which could further increase uncertainty in the markets. Warsh intends to place a strong emphasis on combating inflation, a move that many market participants immediately interpreted as a signal of tighter monetary policy. Restrictive Monetary Policy Weighs on the Markets Instead of the previously hoped-for interest rate cuts, there are now increasing signs of possible rate hikes, which makes stocks less attractive, as higher interest rates increase financing costs and cause future earnings to be discounted more heavily. This uncertainty led to a significant decline in the S&P 500, with other indices also posting losses. In addition, Warsh’s first press conference reinforced the impression of a shift in policy within the Fed, causing investors to become more cautious for the time being and potentially withdraw capital from riskier investments. This underscores how sensitively the markets react to changes in monetary policy and how those changes are communicated. Real Economy and Industry Are Weakening In addition to monetary policy, the real economy is also sending mixed signals. Weak data from the freight and trucking sectors suggest that industrial activity is losing momentum, which is particularly relevant for silver given its heavy industrial use. Unlike gold, silver is not only a monetary store of value but also an industrial metal. When the economy loses momentum, this can dampen physical demand and temporarily slow upward price movements. Gold and Central Banks as a Strategic Tailwind 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey © World Gold Council T he same, gold remains the most important benchmark for the price of silver. While gold was able to recover quickly to over $4,380 following the recent correction—only to then plummet to $4,121—strategic demand from central banks remains a strong tailwind for the entire precious metals sector. The Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 shows that, over the past four years, central banks worldwide have accumulated an average of 1,000 metric tons of gold per year—significantly more than in the previous decade. Furthermore, 89 percent of the central banks surveyed expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, while 74 percent anticipate a decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves. This trend does not apply identically to silver, but it provides strong indirect support. When real assets, diversification, and geopolitical hedging gain importance, silver typically benefits as a downstream, more volatile companion to the gold market. Silver in U.S. Dollars – Early Summer Volatility Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of June 19, 2026. © Gold.de From a technical perspective, the silver price has been moving largely sideways since the first sell-off in early February. However, the series of lower highs underscores the clearly corrective nature of the movement. In the range between approximately $61 and $64, the bulls have so far consistently repelled the bears’ attacks and repeatedly initiated bullish counter-moves. Most recently, silver rebounded last week from $61.50 to Monday’s high of $71.55. This recovery, however, proved short-lived, and silver prices fell back to today’s low of $63.28. As a result, silver is now trading below both its slightly declining 50-day moving average ($79.01) and its still-rising 200-day moving average ($68.24). The 200-day moving average, in particular, should actually stabilize the current sell-off and allow for at least a broader consolidation around the $68 level in the coming weeks. While the weekly stochastic has now reached oversold territory, the momentum oscillator on the daily chart is already pointing downward again. Overall, this paints a picture that can, at best, be interpreted as an early-summer shakeout. In other words, before the summer rally begins, precious metal prices are slowly forming a solid foundation amid erratic and rather weak price action. Once that foundation is laid, a significant recovery should follow in response to the correction that has lasted about four and a half months. In the process, the silver price should then be able to reclaim its 50-day moving average. However, should the stock markets come under pressure and hopes for a de-escalation and continued peace negotiations in the Middle East prove to be illusory, the outlook could darken significantly this summer. In this case, price action on the silver market could also be interpreted as a descending triangle. A break below the $60 to $61 level would confirm this scenario and trigger price targets well below $50. Conclusion: Silver—A Summer Rally Despite an Interest Rate Shock? Silver is currently at a macroeconomic and technical tipping point. In the short term, headwinds dominate: tighter monetary policy, rising real interest rates, and an economic slowdown all argue against a rapid and dynamic upward move. At the same time, the Fed’s policy shift is causing increased uncertainty—a factor that typically draws liquidity away from more cyclical assets like silver. However, two stabilizing forces counter this: a correction that has already been underway for about four and a half months, and increasingly oversold market conditions. Combined with structurally strong demand for gold, this creates an environment that suggests a bottoming-out phase rather than an immediate trend reversal. The support zone around $60 to $61 is therefore crucial. If this support holds, the current period of weakness is likely to turn out to be a classic early-summer bottoming process, from which a recovery toward the 50-day moving average and beyond should become possible as early as midsummer. However, if silver falls sustainably below $60, this would confirm the formation of a descending triangle. In this scenario, the correction would transition into a new downtrend—with price targets well below $50. The coming weeks are therefore likely to be shaped less by trend strength than by decision-making—with an uncomfortably high degree of dependence on geopolitical maneuvers, monetary policy communication, and macroeconomic surprises. Author: Florian Grummes Precious Metals Expert and Technical Analyst www.goldnewsletter.de Source: GOLD.DE

June 5, 2026 Although the war in Iran, a simmering energy crisis, and rising inflation should actually provide the perfect environment for safe-haven assets, gold is currently treading water below the $4,500 per troy ounce mark. For commodity investors, this behavior seems like a paradox. But according to a recent analysis by Commerzbank, there is a clear reason for this: a shift in U.S. interest rate expectations. For forward-thinking investors, this means: The next upward surge in gold prices hasn’t been canceled—it’s merely being postponed. The interest rate shock: Markets are pricing in surprise hikes The explanation for the current price slowdown lies in the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Even before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, the market had anticipated interest rate cuts of around 50 basis points this year. However, the war-driven rise in oil prices has shattered these expectations. A look at Fed funds futures reveals the turnaround: The market now signals a U.S. benchmark interest rate of about 3.8 percent by year-end. Since the effective Fed rate currently stands at just over 3.6 percent, market participants are effectively pricing in an imminent rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a rate hike in December at over 50 percent. By spring 2027 at the latest, the market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point increase. These higher opportunity costs are weighing heavily on the gold price in the short term. The Commerzbank Scenario: 8 Percent Upside Potential by Year-End Despite these headwinds, Commerzbank sees attractive potential but is adjusting its timing. While the year-end target for gold has been lowered from $5,000 to $4,800, this still represents a solid increase of around 8 percent from current levels. The analysts’ base scenario assumes a two-month geopolitical transition phase. After that, the bank expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. The logical consequence: falling prices for Brent crude oil, easing inflationary pressure, and a retreat from the currently aggressive interest rate expectations. Of interest to investors: Contrary to the current market positioning, Commerzbank does not believe there will be a real key interest rate hike this year. Instead, the experts expect interest rates to remain unchanged and see the next real monetary policy move as a cut—but not until the second quarter of 2027 at the earliest. The fundamental drivers remain strong (2027 target: $5,200) Because the overarching macro picture remains intact, Commerzbank is sticking firmly to its long-term forecast of $5,200 per troy ounce by the end of 2027. The time lag does not alter the massive structural drivers: The rampant and rapidly growing U.S. national debt is forcing monetary policy that is too loose relative to inflation. Dwindling confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency continues to fuel central bank gold purchases. The strategic interest of private and institutional investors in tangible assets remains consistently high. Silver in the wake: Industrial weakness weighs on the price In parallel with gold, the bank has also adjusted its expectations for silver. The year-end target has been revised to around $80 per troy ounce. In addition to the subdued gold price, weakening physical demand is the primary factor weighing on prices here. The Silver Institute expects industrial demand for silver to shrink for the second year in a row and reach a four-year low. Nevertheless, the fundamental supply-demand balance in the silver market remains tight. Consequently, Commerzbank expects prices to rise again in the coming year and forecasts a silver price of around $90 per troy ounce by the end of 2027 (previously $95). Conclusion: According to the bank’s outlook, major price surges for both gold and silver are being pushed back in time. However, since the long-term fundamental arguments remain strong, the current consolidation phase could offer strategic investors an attractive entry opportunity before the interest rate turnaround actually takes effect. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-rally-merely-postponed-analysts-predict-usd4-800-by-year-end

May 28, 2026 Silber-Anleger erleben derzeit ein zähes Ringen: Kurzfristig fehlt dem Markt unterhalb der Marke von 75 US-Dollar jSilver investors are currently facing a tough struggle: In the short term, the market lacks the necessary momentum below the $75-per-ounce mark. Yet explosive momentum is building in the background. While Bank of America (BofA) believes another jump to the three-digit $100 mark is possible before the end of the year, the analyst team also warns against premature optimism. Such a price surge is unlikely to signal a lasting trend reversal. Rather, according to the analysts, the silver market is facing a profound fundamental shift in which the industrial base is increasingly crumbling. The balancing act between precious metal fantasy and industrial reality Bank of America’s latest precious metals analysis paints a picture of a divided market. In the short term, silver has the potential to break through the $100-per-ounce mark in the wake of a sustained gold rally. However, this speculative high is unlikely to last: Analysts are already forecasting a return of the price to a level of around $75 as early as the second quarter of 2027. Currently, the gold-silver ratio of 59.43 points reflects this indecision. It remains in the middle of its months-long consolidation range—an indicator of a market that is sensitively oscillating between short-term speculation and a fundamental revaluation. Although the silver market is heading toward its sixth consecutive year of deficit, the sustainability of this supply shortage is under massive threat in the medium term. Solar Industry in Austerity Mode: The Key Demand Pillar Wavers The strongest headwind for the silver price is emerging, of all places, in its former flagship segment—photovoltaics. Faced with historically high silver prices, solar module manufacturers are responding with drastic efficiency measures. Under sustained margin pressure, they are systematically reducing the silver content in the cells or switching to cheaper substitute metals. According to BofA analysts, silver demand from the solar sector already reached its historic peak last year. This trend is exacerbated by stagnating solar production in China and the prospect of declining new installations in the current year. Since demand growth in other industrial sectors is too weak to close the gap left by the solar industry, the silver market faces a fundamental easing of supply-demand dynamics: as early as 2026, the deficit could shrink by a massive 90%. Should industrial demand continue to weaken, even moderate sales by financial investors would be enough to push the market into a physical surplus. Investors as the Deciding Factor In this changed environment, silver is likely to be perceived and traded more as a classic precious metal rather than an industrial metal in the future. Investor demand thus becomes the decisive price factor. This carries risks, as precious metals have recently suffered from the restrictive interest rate policy and expectations of further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rising yields increase the opportunity costs for non-interest-bearing investments and weigh equally on both gold and silver. Nevertheless, silver remains a strategic element of the global energy transition. An abrupt slump in solar demand is not expected. Demand is further fueled by geopolitical conflicts such as the war in Iran, which continues to drive the global push for green energy and alternatives to fossil fuels. Geopolitics and Trade Barriers as Price Drivers Just how volatile the physical market can be was already evident at the start of the year, when the silver price briefly shot up to $120 per ounce amid fierce competition for physical metal. A major source of uncertainty remains the upcoming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Since Mexico and Canada are the main suppliers to the U.S. market, significant trade risks loom. Concerns about potential tariffs have already prompted banks and market participants to massively increase their holdings within the U.S. This domestic hoarding is draining important liquidity from the global market. According to BofA, this physical withdrawal is the main reason silver has recently managed to climb back above the $80 mark—even though physically backed ETFs are continuously recording outflows and the latest CFTC data signal rather subdued interest in new net long positions in the futures markets. Conclusion: In the short term, silver retains the potential for a breakout toward the $100 mark. However, the foundation for this rise is becoming more fragile. Investors betting on silver should keep an eye on the weakening industrial data, which could set tight time limits on the rally. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-why-the-usd100-mark-is-both-within-reach-and-dangerous

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of May 25–29, 2026. Indonesian nickel ore and ferroalloy policy expectations and a low-inventory floor steady the benchmark contract near RMB 14,800/mt in the week of May 25 – May 29.

Scrap tightening and a major nickel-cobalt producer's output cut pushed SHFE stainless steel to levels not seen since 2023 — yet physical demand remains conspicuously absent heading into the May Day break

Macro tailwinds drive a 320 yuan recovery in SS2605, while high supply and weak spot demand limit the upside