News Release: April 30, 2026 According to SMM statistics, China’s high-carbon ferrochrome output in April 2026 fell by 1.28% month-on-month but rose by 24.63% year-on-year, with notable regional divergence. The majority of the monthly output reduction came from Inner Mongolia in northern China. Affected by substation maintenance, ferrochrome producers in Fengzhen faced production restrictions, with output dipping slightly by 1.82%.

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Steel Tender Bids Raised by 100, Confidence in Chrome Market Strengthened] April 27, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market saw no fluctuations for the time being...

This week, stainless steel spot prices strengthened, while production costs also rose, further expanding steel mills' profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 0.15% this week; if calculated using the raw material inventory cost, it reached 1.74%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, news regarding Indonesian nickel ore continued to develop this week, pushing high-grade NPI prices further up. NPI producers are already in a loss-making position, showing strong willingness to hold prices firm. Coupled with expectations of increased stainless steel production in March boosting demand for high-grade NPI, although mainstream stainless steel mills have not yet seen representative transaction prices, market confidence remains strong. As of Friday this week, the price for high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 33.5 yuan per mtu, closing at 1,085 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices remained generally stable this week. Market recovery was slow in the first week after the holiday, as some scrap yards and downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work. The slow return to work led to insufficient trading activity and weak transactions. While futures prices fluctuated higher, boosted by Indonesian policy news, leading to a significant rise in high-grade NPI prices, stainless steel scrap prices did not fluctuate synchronously due to the lag in recovery. The advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to high-grade NPI further expanded, providing support for its price. With increased steel mill production schedules in March and the approach of the peak season "Golden March, Silver April", downstream demand is expected to be released, and procurement demand will increase. As of Friday this week, the price for 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained stable, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. Regarding the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. In the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, the market gradually recovered, but overall transactions remained relatively sluggish, with retail prices holding steady. During the week, Tsingshan Group announced its March high-carbon ferrochrome tender price, which was unchanged from the previous month at 8,245 yuan/mt (50% metal content). However, with the approaching peak demand season "Golden March, Silver April", expectations of a significant increase in stainless steel production schedules in March, and recent rises in stainless steel prices, market expectations for increased ferrochrome demand have grown, and a sentiment for price exploration has emerged in the ferrochrome market. As of Friday this week, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were flat WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Analysis]According to SMM data statistics, the production of high-carbon ferrochrome further increased in May 2025, up 5.76% MoM, but down 5.38% YoY. Among them, Inner Mongolia accounted for 78.26% of the production, with a MoM increase of 1.27%; the southern region, including Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, etc., accounted for 17.14%, with a MoM increase of 24.69%. The tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from mainstream stainless steel mills rose again. Coupled with the approaching rainy season in south China and cost advantages in production, manufacturers frequently resumed production, leading to a significant increase in ferrochrome output...

This week, the stainless steel market saw a pattern where production costs and spot prices declined in tandem. Despite a slight increase in the price of high-grade NPI, the prices of high-carbon ferrochrome and stainless steel scrap both weakened. Coupled with persistently sluggish downstream demand, the selling prices of stainless steel products came under pressure, exacerbating corporate losses. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the cash cost decreased by 36.24 yuan/mt this week, and the loss ratio widened to 5.89%. If calculated based on the cost of raw material inventory, although the cash cost decreased by 109.29 yuan/mt, the loss ratio remained at 5%. At the cost level of nickel-based raw materials, nickel ore prices remained firm this week, providing solid cost support for high-grade NPI prices, prompting a slight increase in high-grade NPI prices during the week. However, recent news of production cuts by stainless steel mills has been circulating, and the market expects the demand for high-grade NPI to weaken accordingly. Meanwhile, stainless steel enterprises are generally facing losses, with low purchase willingness for high-priced raw materials, further limiting the upside potential for high-grade NPI prices. As of Friday, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade had increased by 3 yuan/mtu cumulatively, closing at 954 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices fell slightly in tandem with stainless steel finished product prices. Compared with high-grade NPI, stainless steel scrap remains at a significant disadvantage in terms of cost-effectiveness. Affected by expectations of stainless steel production cuts, market confidence was shaken, and suppliers' willingness to sell was strong, driving stainless steel scrap prices to continue to weaken. As of Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China had fallen by 100 yuan/mt cumulatively, with the quoted price dropping to 9,850 yuan/mt. In the cost sector of chrome-based raw materials, despite Tsingshan Group maintaining a flat tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome at its steel mills in June, the market's supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant changes. On the one hand, the stainless steel industry expects production cuts, weakening the demand for high-carbon ferrochrome. On the other hand, high-carbon ferrochrome producers are showing a trend of expanding production, effectively alleviating the previously tight supply situation. Although overseas ferrochrome production is expected to decline, domestic high-carbon ferrochrome producers, leveraging the advantage of low-priced chrome ore raw materials purchased earlier, are highly motivated to produce, driving the ferrochrome market from undersupply to oversupply. With the increasing abundance of spot resources in the market, the willingness of ferrochrome producers and traders to sell has significantly increased. Against the backdrop of a reversal in the supply-demand relationship, high-carbon ferrochrome prices have entered a downward trajectory. Data shows that high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia fell by 100 yuan/50 base tons this week, with the latest quoted price at 7,950 yuan/50 base tons. A comprehensive analysis reveals that the current cost support for stainless steel prices is limited, and the core contradiction in the market still centers on the persistent weakness in downstream demand. Recently, some stainless steel enterprises have successively implemented production cuts due to multiple factors such as losses, insufficient orders, and equipment maintenance and upgrades. However, there remains significant uncertainty as to whether the scale of production cuts can match the extent of demand contraction. Against the backdrop of an escalating tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, stainless steel enterprises are expected to face a prolonged period and numerous challenges in their efforts to restore profits.

This week, the stainless steel market saw a simultaneous decline in production costs and spot prices. However, the drop in costs was smaller than that in spot prices, exacerbating the losses between production costs and selling prices. Taking 304 cold-rolled stainless steel as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the cash cost only increased slightly by 11.71 yuan/mt this week, with the loss ratio expanding to 5.77%. If calculated based on raw material inventory costs, although the cash cost decreased by 130.82 yuan/mt, the loss ratio still reached 5.43%. Regarding the cost of nickel-based raw materials, the price of high-grade NPI had already fallen below the smelting cost line in Indonesia in the early stage, leaving limited room for further significant price reductions. Additionally, as Indonesia gradually enters the rainy season, the tight supply of nickel ore may intensify. Despite the fact that the loose supply situation of high-grade NPI is unlikely to change completely in the short term, driven by cost support and the demand for some traders to stock up at low prices, the price of high-grade NPI stopped falling and began to rebound this week. As of Friday, the price of high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% had increased by a cumulative 9.5 yuan/mtu, reaching 951 yuan/mtu. During the same period, the price of stainless steel scrap dropped slightly along with the price of finished stainless steel products. Compared with high-grade NPI, its economic efficiency was clearly at a disadvantage, with downstream purchase willingness remaining low and mainly driven by immediate needs. As of Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China had fallen by a cumulative 50 yuan/mt, with the quoted price dropping to 9,950 yuan/mt. In terms of the cost of chrome-based raw materials, the high-carbon ferrochrome tender price for June announced by Tsingshan Group was 8,095 yuan per 50 base tons, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. During the week, the retail spot price of ferrochrome continued to decline, gradually approaching the tender price. Currently, the retail price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia is basically in line with the tender price. As south China enters the rainy season, the operating rate of ferrochrome enterprises has increased, leading to a significant rise in market supply and abundant spot cargo availability. Against the backdrop of the off-season for stainless steel consumption, losses in stainless steel enterprises, and planned production cuts, ferrochrome prices are expected to remain weak. Data shows that the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia fell by 25 yuan per 50 base tons this week, with the latest quoted price at 8,050 yuan per 50 base tons. Overall, as the impact of macro factors on the stainless steel market gradually fades, the imbalance caused by insufficient demand has become increasingly prominent. Although stainless steel enterprises continue to face pressure from losses, relying solely on cost support is insufficient to reverse the weak market trend. Currently, news of production cuts by stainless steel mills has emerged in the market. Given the already ample supply of high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome, it is expected that the smelting cost of stainless steel will further decline.