[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuated Downward and Temporarily Settled at 405,000; Spot Market Saw Bargain-Hunting Orders Mainly Driven by Rigid Demand]

SMM Nickel News, May 19: Macro and market news: (1) Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chairman at a ceremony at the White House on Friday, presided over by Trump. (2) Trump said that at the request of Middle Eastern countries, the attack on Iran originally scheduled for Tuesday was postponed. Should an acceptable deal not be reached, a massive full-scale military strike against Iran should be ready for immediate execution at any time. Spot market: On May 19, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,450 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract retreated after rapid rise in the morning session, closing at 141,960 yuan/mt, down 0.07%. After the previous rally in nickel prices, concentrated position closing by bulls for profit-taking, combined with high inventory and pessimistic macro sentiment, led to significant capital outflows, and nickel prices pulled back sharply under pressure. However, the bottom cost support brought by high sulfur prices still exists, and expectations for supply-side tightening going forward remain strong, leaving room for nickel prices to rise and recover. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 142,000-152,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477/mt, dipped to a low of $13,436/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,625/mt, and finally moved sideways at high levels to close at $13,590/mt, up 0.34%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 283,000 lots, an increase of 2,099 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 104,840 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly lower to a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,590 yuan/mt, up 0.28%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[Middle East Geopolitical Risks Cool Down, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure in the Short Term] On the macro front, Trump announced the cancellation of the originally planned military strike against Iran, as negotiations mediated by relevant countries made progress, easing market concerns over an escalation of Middle East conflicts. High inventory levels in China remain the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading performance in the spot market further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforms SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Express] On May 18, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun chaired a regular press conference. Guo Jiakun stated that during President Trump’s visit to China, the two heads of state agreed to position “a constructive China-U.S. strategic stability relationship” as the new orientation of bilateral relations, made plans for the next stage of high-level exchanges and dialogue and cooperation across various fields including diplomacy and economy and trade, and conducted in-depth exchanges of views on international and regional hot topics of mutual concern. China is willing to work with the U.S. side to fully and accurately implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state.

Futures: Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,405 yuan/mt. From mid-session to the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately closing at 16,440 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,013.5/mt, briefly edging up to $2,014/mt before entering a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of $1,973/mt. Near the close, market sentiment recovered somewhat, and LME lead prices edged up, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down $28/mt or 1.39%. On the macro front: Israeli media: Netanyahu spoke with Trump, discussing the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran. Trump issued a military threat to Iran and was set to discuss military action options on Tuesday. US media: Iran plans to charge transit fees for submarine fiber-optic cables through the Strait of Hormuz. UK media: UK Prime Minister Starmer intended to resign from his position. ChangXin Technology: H1 revenue is expected to reach 110-120 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 50-57 billion yuan. China successfully launched the 9th batch of networking satellites for the Qianfan constellation. Wuxi will establish a large-scale "Token factory." The Shenzhou-23 mission plans to launch in the coming days. Spot fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead reversed and pulled back. In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region, spot discounts narrowed slightly, with some suppliers quoted at premiums of +20~+30 yuan/mt, while cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites saw relatively reduced circulation. Some suppliers suspended shipments. Meanwhile, secondary lead smelters in east China successively resumed production, and secondary lead circulation relatively increased. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm eased, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand. In particular, as lead prices pulled back, risk-averse sentiment in the market was strong, and spot market transactions remained sluggish. Inventory: On May 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,000 mt. On May 14, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Last week, primary lead production edged up slightly, while secondary lead smelters saw both short-term production cuts/shutdowns and production resumptions coexisting. Import lead side, the import window was closed, and the inflow of imported lead into China decreased. The supply side overall presented an intertwined pattern of bullish and bearish factors. The battery consumption off-season continued in May, with weak end-use demand providing limited support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.