SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

Silver prices rebounded and rose today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract narrowed. Some suppliers were reluctant to sell and stayed on the sidelines, while downstream buyers generally negotiated prices and bought the dip. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from holders of national-standard silver ingots were quoted at premiums of 100-150 yuan/kg against TD, or at premiums of 50-80 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Only a small volume was traded in early trading. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed and silver prices surged, downstream purchasing interest declined markedly. Although some suppliers were reluctant to sell and remained on the sidelines due to costs and other factors, some sellers in the market cut prices and sold at premiums of 0-20 yuan/kg against the 2604 contract. Spot market quotations varied widely, buyers and sellers engaged in intense bargaining, downstream enterprises made small-volume purchases on dips, and market transactions turned subdued.

[SMM Morning Zinc Briefing: Stronger US Dollar Index Put LME Zinc Under Pressure and Slightly Lower]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,095/mt. After the opening, LME zinc fluctuated downward along the daily average line, hitting an intraday high of $3,097/mt. Near the close, LME zinc fell to a low of $3,027/mt, and finally closed down at $3,038.5/mt, down $64.5/mt, a decline of 2.08%, while trading volume decreased to 11,298 lots...

[SMM Daily Chrome Commentary: Cost Support Kept Offers Firm, with Limited Recent Market Fluctuations] March 25, 2026: Chrome ore quotations saw no adjustment, while low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome prices were raised somewhat...

[SMM Midday Tin Commentary: Improving Macro Sentiment Drove a Rebound in Tin Prices, While Follow-Through in Spot Transactions Remained Limited]

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.