Trump's May 13-15, 2026 state visit starkly contrasts with his Nov 2017 trip, where $250B in deals epitomized globalization. Months later, in March 2018, a trade war erupted.

SMM May 14: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.07%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.3%. SHFE lead rose 0.27%, SHFE zinc rose 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 0.87%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.3%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.01%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.49%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.43%, rebar fell 0.25%, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel fell 1.52%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.57%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.8%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all declined. LME copper fell 1.08%. LME aluminum fell 0.9%, LME lead edged up 0.02%. LME zinc edged down. LME tin fell 2.76%. LME nickel fell 1.57%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver fell 2.2%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.04%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.6%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.28%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.27%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 4.32%, closing at 2,434 points. As of 11:41 on May 14, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Nickel: On May 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front [Xi Jinping: The Essence of China-US Economic and Trade Relations Is Mutual Benefit and Win-Win] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that facts have repeatedly proven that there are no winners in a trade war, the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, and equal consultation is the only correct choice when facing differences and frictions. Yesterday, the economic and trade teams of both sides reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, which is good news for the people of both countries and for the world. Both sides should work together to maintain the current hard-won positive momentum. (CCTV News) [Xi Jinping: Making 2026 a Historic and Landmark Year for China-US Relations to Build on the Past and Open Up the Future] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping emphasized that the common interests between China and the US outweigh their differences, that the success of each country represents an opportunity for the other, and that stability in China-US relations benefits the world. Both sides should be partners rather than rivals, achieving mutual success and shared prosperity, and forging a path of proper engagement between major countries in the new era. He looked forward to exchanging views with President Trump on major issues concerning both countries and the world, jointly steering the great ship of China-US relations on the right course, and making 2026 a historic and landmark year for China-US relations to build on the past and open up the future. (Xinhua News Agency) China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Resulted in a Net Withdrawal of 26.5 Billion Yuan for the Day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 26.5 billion yuan was achieved for the day. US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.48. Driven by a sharp climb in energy prices amid Middle East conflicts, the US April Producer Price Index (PPI) significantly exceeded expectations, posting the largest increase in over three years, and market bets on a Fed rate hike warmed notably. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed: US April PPI came in at 6% YoY, the highest level since December 2022. Expectations were 4.8%, with the prior reading at 4%. US April PPI rose 1.4% MoM, the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Expectations were 0.5%, with the prior reading at 0.5%. US April core PPI came in at 5.2% YoY (expectations: 4.3%, prior: 3.8%). US April core PPI rose 1% MoM (expectations: 0.3%, prior: 0.1%). The money market has now priced in approximately 24 basis points of rate hikes ahead of the Fed's June 2027 policy meeting, up from 21 basis points at Tuesday's close. The market priced in roughly a 50% probability of one rate hike within 2026. (Wallstreetcn) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market has now priced in a probability of over 30% for a rate hike by December. Following the unexpectedly strong US April PPI data, the market believes it is now even harder for the US Fed to justify any interest rate cuts this year. In April, the PPI rose 1.4%, well above economists’ consensus expectations of 0.5%, indicating inflationary pressures were stronger than expected and reinforcing the market’s trend toward repricing the interest-rate path. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Today will see the release of the UK Q1 preliminary annual GDP growth rate, the UK March three-month GDP monthly rate, the UK March manufacturing production monthly rate, Canada March wholesale sales monthly rate, the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, the US April retail sales monthly rate, the US April import price index monthly rate, and other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by the local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan taking part in a dialogue on the energy industry; 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering remarks on “payments innovation and community banks”; and US President Trump paying a state visit to China. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.4%. The market continued to focus on developments in the US-Iran situation. US Vice President Vance said on Wednesday local time: “On the negotiations with Iran, I think progress is being made. Right now we’re focused on the diplomatic track, and I spoke this morning with Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner. The fundamental issue in the talks is whether we can make enough progress to meet the red lines set by Trump. That red line is very simple. He needs to be confident that we have put in place sufficient safeguards to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.” Commenting on the previously released CPI data, Vance said: “Last month’s inflation data wasn’t ideal. The President, I, and the entire team care about the financial situation of the American people.” (Jin10 Data) OPEC’s monthly report showed that Saudi Arabia’s daily crude oil production in April fell to 6.316 million barrels, the lowest since 1990. Saudi Arabia also reported to OPEC that “actual market supply,” excluding the portion injected into storage, was slightly higher than production, reaching a daily average of 6.879 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn) Hunter Hunt, grandson of Texas oil tycoon H.L. Hunt, worried that damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East could lead to a decline in oil production over the next few years. Hunt discussed many Iran-war-related issues, including production shutdowns, refinery damage, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil had once been transported. “This is literally the nightmare that no one wants to see in their plans," Hunt said on Wednesday. Hunt rarely speaks publicly. He runs the 91-year-old Hunt Oil Company, which operates globally, including in Yemen and the Kurdistan region of Iraq. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

As the core of the global magnet supply chain, China's export data reflects geopolitical shifts. From 2022 to 2025, export volumes tracked the move from decoupling to export controls. Now in 2026, changing geopolitics is driving a new export cycle.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is thrilled to announce that our 2026 SMM Global Lead-Acid Battery Supply Chain Industry Conference is scheduled to take place in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, during November 12-13, 2026！

SMM Nickel October 21 News: Macro and Market News: (1) Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun presided over a regular press conference yesterday. A reporter asked that China and the US will hold a new round of China-US economic and trade consultations, and US President Trump stated that the US has listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues raised by the US towards China. In response, Guo Jiakun said that China's position on handling China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interest of either side, and both sides should resolve any issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. (2) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data today showing that, based on preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three quarters was 101.5036 trillion yuan, calculated at constant prices, up 5.2% YoY. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5,806.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the value added of the secondary industry was 36,402 billion yuan, up 4.9% YoY; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 59,295.5 billion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. By quarter, GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in Q3. Spot Market: On October 21, the price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 121,100-123,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,500 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-200 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) fluctuated rangebound at high levels during the night session, closing slightly higher at the tail. On the 21st, the SHFE nickel early session opened at 121,270 yuan/mt (up 520 yuan), with the futures maintaining strong performance. Recent focus should be on US inflation data and US Fed policy signals, while progress in China-US trade talks will also impact the market. Against the backdrop of weak fundamentals and turbulent external conditions, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.

Growing uncertainty surrounding the direction of tariffs and oil prices, as well as their impact on inflation, is heightening a risk ahead of tonight's US Fed decision: that Fed officials may not be able to cut interest rates twice this year as they had previously anticipated... The US Fed is set to announce its June interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and it is easy to foresee that the "dot plot," which reflects Fed officials' expectations for interest rate policy changes this year, will clearly be the focus of many market participants at that time. In the previous dot plot released in March, the median expectation of Fed officials indicated two interest rate cuts before the end of this year. Meanwhile, federal funds rate futures traders currently believe there is only a 37.7% probability that the Fed will actually cut interest rates less than twice! And this clearly poses a significant risk to tonight's market: if the June dot plot reflects only one interest rate cut expected this year, will investors who are "full of anticipation" for two cuts be greatly disappointed? Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury, said in an email on Monday that the company believes two interest rate cuts this year will still be the baseline expectation for most Fed policymakers. Given the significant uncertainty surrounding current tariffs, they may not have enough confidence to substantially change their views. However, there is also a risk that a minority of officials believe the number of interest rate cuts this year will be fewer than previously expected, which could be enough to tilt the decision-making balance toward only one cut (25 basis points) in 2025." He added, "A hawkish dot plot, combined with Powell's remarks emphasizing no rush to cut interest rates, could provide some room for the US dollar to strengthen in the second half of this week." Over the past three months, Fed officials have consistently expected the inflation rate and core inflation rate for 2025 (based on their preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index) to reach 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, before gradually declining to the target level of 2% in 2027 and beyond. Since December last year, they have also "held steady" for three consecutive policy meetings, maintaining the federal funds rate target between 4.25% and 4.5%. Currently, traders generally expect Fed policymakers to implement the first interest rate cut of 2025 in September. In fact, the risk factors that have made the Fed reluctant to cut interest rates sooner have been present and continue to accumulate recently. US President Trump announced a 10% base tariff on most imported goods on April 2, and during the 90-day suspension period for reciprocal tariffs he set (which will expire in July), there is still a lack of a permanent solution to this trade war, exacerbating the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook. Additionally, the conflict between Israel and Iran that erupted late last week has continued into its fifth day, exacerbating oil price volatility and sparking concerns that supply disruptions could trigger a new wave of inflation. Greg Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy at New York-based AmeriVet Securities, said market participants would react on Wednesday to "the dot plot and how it correlates with the US Fed's inflation forecast." Faranello noted that if the Fed's latest dot plot projects only one interest rate cut in 2025, this could be perceived as "more hawkish" and might lead to an increase in short-term interest rates, such as the 2-year US Treasury yield. This could present a buying opportunity for some investors. Faranello wrote that Treasury yields have been experiencing sideways movement for about two months, with participants in the interest rate market stating, "We don't know what's going to happen next." Faranello also mentioned that the Fed might not cut interest rates at all this year. Faranello believes that traders may not focus too much on the Fed's updated interest rate projections for 2026 and 2027 compared to the expectations for this year's rate path on the dot plot, given the significant uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook. Moreover, they may react more cautiously to Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, as the Fed Chairman's term is set to end next year, and Trump will be seeking a successor. "The overall trajectory of interest rates will definitely be lower—that's for sure. The question is how quickly we get there," the strategist added.