Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alvance British Aluminium has boosted output by ~10% at its Lochaber smelter in Fort William, Scotland (UK’s only primary aluminium plant), thanks to recent US tariff changes. The GFG Alliance-owned facility (48,000 tpy capacity, hydro-powered) now exports about half its production to the US for the first time. Managing Director Tom Uppington: “We increased production in response to shifting trade flows after US tariffs, entering the US market while serving UK and European customers.” President Trump set a 50% global tariff on steel/aluminium imports, but the UK secured a preferential 25% rate (vs. 50% for Canada), making UK metal more competitive. The US still relies on imports for automotive and aerospace sectors.

[SMM Hot Topic] Estimated “Cliff-Like” Drop in China’s Steel Exports—A Ramadan Pattern or a War Shock? As mentioned above, [Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade] amid the US–Iran conflict, global steel trade was shaken and reshaped. Another topic that has recently been widely discussed in the market is: what impact will this war have on China’s total export volume? Before going into detail, it is important to remind everyone that the current focus has largely remained on geopolitical conflict, while often overlooking that this period coincides with Ramadan, a seasonal trough. Therefore, to quantify the war’s actual impact more accurately, SMM conducted corresponding “dehydration” adjustments based on ferrous panoramic shipping data. Most Direct Impact: A Deep Shortfall on the Shipping Side Data Source:SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping According to the table above, in the absence of war, during Ramadan 2025, China’s average weekly shipments to Gulf countries were about 327,000 mt, while the average weekly shipments in the month after Ramadan ended were 450,400 mt. Therefore, keeping average weekly shipments at around 300,000 mt during Ramadan is considered a “normal contraction” level. By further comparing the same-period data for 2026 and 2025, we can precisely calculate the quantified impact caused by the war. As of the latest date, in the first 20 days of Ramadan, China exported and shipped only 5,000 mt, with a weekly average of only 1,750 mt. Estimation logic: If there were no war, based on a neutral assessment using the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, total shipments in the first 20 days should have been about 930,000 mt; therefore, the war resulted in shipment losses of about 925,000 mt. Therefore, we can conclude that the more than 99% plunge on the shipping side was most likely caused by the war (route blockades, shipowners’ risk aversion), and the Ramadan factor is almost negligible in the face of such a massive decline. Delayed Effects on the Arrival Side Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In addition to the impact on the shipping side, SMM ’s ferrous panoramic shipping data also showed that after operations were suspended at multiple ports, a combination of factors—such as vessels being unable to berth and unload—led to a decline in the total volume of steel arriving at ports. As of the latest date, average weekly arrivals were about 220,200 mt, down by roughly 82,000 mt/week from 302,200 mt over the same period last year. Estimation logic: assuming no war impact and using a neutral assessment based on the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, cumulative arrivals in the first 20 days should have been about 863,400 mt, implying a cumulative shortfall of about 234,000 mt. Cause breakdown: it is expected that the decline on the arrivals side was not as pronounced as that on the shipments side, because among these 12 arriving vessels, most carried orders that had already been dispatched before the full outbreak of the war or in the early stage of the situation (Jan 25–Feb 25). Therefore, this 234,000 mt gap was mainly due to war-driven route detours (delays) and partial port shutdowns. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In summary, based on the data, we can conclude that Ramadan was merely the “backdrop,” while the war was the “main cause.” If the impact were only from Ramadan, we should still have had about 300,000 mt of steel shipped to the Gulf each week. The reality, however, is that since Feb 18, our average weekly shipments have plunged to less than 2,000 mt. This means that, within the currently observed gap, shipment losses of more than 900,000 mt were entirely caused by war-related order stagnation or shipping lane disruptions. The 27% decline currently seen on the arrivals side is only the beginning; the real “vacuum period” will fully emerge in late March, during the latter part of Ramadan. At present, a phased contraction in China’s total steel exports to the Middle East has become a foregone conclusion. Does this mean the strong momentum of China’s full-year exports will come to a halt here? According to SMM steel export take-order data, last week, the total orders taken by 31 exporters were about 765,000 mt, up 20.76% MoM. Among them, export orders for long products were about 437,000 mt, up 56.07% MoM; export orders for sheets & plates were about 328,000 mt, down 7.21% MoM. Against the backdrop of rising export prices, this growth did not stem from a broad-based global economic recovery, but from forced shifts in trade flows driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, instability in Iran diverted Southeast Asian orders to China, driving a boom in steel billet exports; on the other hand, conflict in the Middle East pushed up shipping costs, and the surge in fuel prices directly caused physical disruptions along the trade chain. Even if there is overseas demand, the sharp rise in freight rates also weakened the pricing advantage of Chinese steel products. SMM Steel Export Orders Taken - 31 Companies (10kt) Data Source:SMM Weekly Steel Export Report Therefore, although the reduction in exports to the Middle East has already been confirmed by the data, assessing its impact on China’s total exports for the full year still needs to be based on a “global rebalancing” perspective: is the “gap” created after demand in Gulf countries is constrained being converted into “incremental volume” in other markets? What is the actual absorption capacity of these emerging incremental markets? Can they offset the monthly shipping loss of 900,000 mt from the Middle East? Please continue to follow SMM Steel Industry Research; we will regularly update global shipping developments… Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. 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Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again recently, as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify, drawing renewed global attention to energy transportation security in the Gulf region.Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the development of the situation, market risks are clearly skewed to the upside. This article provides a brief analysis of how the current conflict may affect the copper market going forward.

Recently, the Malaysian stainless steel market has been roiled by supply chain disruptions as multiple shipments of cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesian Tsingshan faced severe customs clearance hurdles. This abrupt "stuck at customs" situation triggered strong concerns among local downstream processors regarding supply stability and spot price volatility. However, a recent gazette issued by the Malaysian Federal Government has finally turned the tide, though the underlying policy chess game is far from over. The Resolution: Official Exemption for Specific Indonesian Entity On March 6, 2026, the Attorney General's Chambers of Malaysia officially published the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2026 (Amendment) Order 2026 under gazette P.U. (A) 120. This document provides a crucial correction to the anti-dumping policy regarding Indonesia. Under the amended schedule for "The Republic of Indonesia," the broad category of "Other producer or exporter" has been redefined to explicitly exclude PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy (a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group) . Effective Period and Retroactivity: The amendment is backdated, officially effective from January 15, 2026, to April 23, 2026 . Affected Products and HS Codes: The policy applies to cold-rolled stainless steel in coils, sheets, or any other form with a thickness of not more than 6.5 millimeters. The specific Malaysian Harmonized System (HS) Codes are: 7219.31.00 00 7219.32.00 00 7219.33.00 00 7219.34.00 00 7219.35.00 00 7220.20.10 00 7220.20.90 00 (Note: Excludes cold-rolled stainless steel with bright annealed (BA), No. 8 mirror finish, embossed, rigidised, etched, or coloured finishes, or those with a hardness value exceeding 250HV). Historical Trace: Was the "Customs Hold-Up" an Administrative Glitch? SMM's review of historical gazettes reveals that Indonesian Tsingshan had long held a "tax-free shield." Back on April 26, 2021, when Malaysia enacted the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2021 [P.U. (A) 197], which imposed a 5-year anti-dumping duty on cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesia and Vietnam, PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy was explicitly exempted from the onset. However, as the policy entered a renewal/transition phase in early 2026 (post-January 15), it appears an administrative oversight occurred. The exemption clause was not automatically carried over, causing incoming shipments to be slapped with the maximum 34.82% duty designated for "Other Indonesian producers," leading to the customs blockage. The retroactive amendment published on March 6 essentially rectifies this glitch, reinstating the company's exemption status and allowing the stranded cargoes to clear customs rapidly. The Ultimate Suspense: The "April 23" Sunset Countdown While the immediate clearance crisis is resolved, SMM notes that a much larger policy countdown is looming. The "April 23" deadline set in the latest gazette is not arbitrary. According to the original 2021 directive, Malaysia's 5-year anti-dumping measure against Indonesian stainless steel has a statutory expiration date of April 23, 2026 . This means the entire Southeast Asian stainless steel trade network will face a critical Sunset Review node in just over a month: Import Rush: With only a month left in this guaranteed "tax-free window," Indonesian exporters will likely expedite shipments. This could result in a short-term flood of Indonesian spot materials into the Malaysian market, pressuring local prices. Policy Reshuffle: Post-April 23, if the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) does not extend the anti-dumping duties, other Indonesian mills will regain low-cost access to Malaysia. Conversely, given Malaysia's strong protectionist stance—evidenced by the 2023 administrative review [P.U. (A) 225] which levied duties against China, Korea, and Thailand—if MITI extends the measures, can Tsingshan maintain its exclusive exemption in the new cycle? This decision will dictate ASEAN stainless steel pricing dynamics in the second half of the year. SMM will continue to track MITI's upcoming sunset review announcements and customs data to monitor shifts in Southeast Asian stainless steel trade flows.