[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Two Major Factors Boosted Market Confidence, Short-Term Aluminum Price Maintained Consolidation on a Strong Note]

[End-Use Demand Weakness Limits Rise, Aluminum Price Consolidation Pattern Continues] Our comprehensive outlook indicates that recent macro sentiment has improved slightly, with the persistent Middle East geopolitical risk premium and continued destocking of aluminum ingots in China jointly underpinning aluminum prices. However, long-term capacity additions in aluminum production outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China, and recurring uncertainty at the macro level are creating significant pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices, which are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM July 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 1.01% increase, while LME aluminum led the losses with a 0.78% decline. SHFE lead fell 0.76%. The remaining metals saw relatively small fluctuations in their % changes. Alumina main contract rose 0.67%, and the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.57%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel closed flat at 14,740 yuan/mt. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both posted gains around 0.4%, with hot-rolled coil up 0.46% and rebar up 0.42%. Coking coal and coke showed mixed performance, with coking coal down 0.35% and coke up 0.9%. Last Friday overnight in the precious metals market, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, up 0.92% for the week. COMEX silver rose 0.75%, up 3.84% for the week. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.18% and SHFE silver rose 1.39%. On a weekly basis, SHFE gold gained 1.06% and SHFE silver gained 4.17%. As of 78:14 on July 25, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: People's Bank of China: The PBOC will conduct overnight reverse repo operations on July 29-31 and August 3, using fixed-rate, quantity-based tenders. It will conduct 600 billion yuan each day from July 29 to 31, and 300 billion yuan on August 3. (Jinshi Data APP) [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Tariff wars and trade wars are not in anyone's interest] Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian chaired a regular press conference. A reporter asked: New US tariff measures will take effect today. Can the ministry comment on this? Lin Jian stated that China's position on China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, opposing all forms of unilateral tariff measures. Tariff wars and trade wars are not in anyone's interest. (CCTV News) [Commerce Ministry Spokesperson Answers Questions on Adding 14 EU Entities to Export Control List] On July 24, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce issued the control list. What are the considerations? On the evening of July 23, Beijing time, the EU side officially released its 21st round of sanctions against Russia, listing 14 Chinese mainland and Hong Kong enterprises for sanctions. To safeguard national security and interests, and to fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, in response to the EU's egregious actions, in accordance with the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China and other relevant laws and regulations, China has decided to add 14 EU entities, including Lafate Group, to the export control list. It prohibits export operators from exporting dual-use items to the above entities, and prohibits overseas organizations and individuals from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the above entities. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 101.45, up 0.68% for the week. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 62.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.9%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.1%, a cumulative 25bp hike 56.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 28.7%. (Jinshi Data APP) Morgan Stanley strategists said in a report that recent data suggests the Fed will hold steady at its July meeting and may keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year. They wrote: "The Fed is losing patience with above-target inflation. The inflation trajectory over the coming months is critical—we expect inflation to ease as expected—otherwise the Fed could turn to rate hikes later this year." Money markets have currently priced in almost two rate hikes by the Fed by year-end. However, the slowing inflation trend could prompt the Fed to keep rates on hold this year, leaving the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. "We expect the disinflationary trend will keep the Fed on hold this year." (Jinshi Data APP) Other Currencies: According to Nikkei News, the Bank of Japan plans to keep its policy rate at 1% at its July 30-31 policy meeting. Sources close to the matter said the majority of the nine-member BOJ policy board is expected to vote to keep rates unchanged. While board members generally view current financial conditions as accommodative and see a need for further rate hikes to stabilize prices, many indicate there is no urgency to act now. Some members called for another rate hike in July following the June increase. Against the backdrop of Middle East tensions and inflation risks from rising oil prices, the BOJ is closely watching the impact of the June hike. At this week's meeting, the board may upgrade its real GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026. The BOJ's median forecast in April was 0.5%, but economic conditions have since improved. The increasing availability of alternatives to Middle Eastern crude has also eased concerns about output declines among companies. Many at the BOJ also believe that AI-related industries have outperformed expectations, driving Japan's economic growth. (Jinshi Data APP) Macro Front: This week, China will release data including the June year-on-year industrial profits above designated size, and the July official manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Fed's July 29 interest rate decision (upper bound), June durable goods orders MoM, July Dallas Fed business activity index, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, May FHFA house price index MoM, May S&P/CS 20-city unadjusted home price index YoY, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, June core PCE price index YoY, June core PCE price index MoM, Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ (preliminary), Q2 core PCE price index annualized QoQ (preliminary), Q2 employment cost index QoQ, July Chicago PMI, July University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), and July 1-year inflation expectations (final). The Eurozone will release Q2 GDP YoY (preliminary), June unemployment rate, July industrial sentiment index, July economic sentiment index, July CPI YoY (preliminary), and July CPI MoM (preliminary). Germany will release the July IFO business climate index, Q2 GDP YoY (preliminary, unadjusted), July CPI MoM (preliminary), July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, and July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. Switzerland will release the July ZEW investor sentiment index, July KOF economic leading indicator, June real retail sales YoY, and France's July CPI MoM (preliminary). The UK will release the July CBI retail sales balance, June Bank of England mortgage approvals, and the BoE interest rate decision on July 30. Additionally, Australia's June unadjusted CPI YoY, France's Q2 GDP YoY (preliminary), Japan's June unemployment rate, the BOJ's July 31 target rate, and Canada's May GDP MoM will all be released. In addition, China will open a new round of fuel price adjustment window. The Fed's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Bank of England will release its rate decision, meeting minutes, and Monetary Policy Report. The Bank of England will release its rate decision, meeting minutes, and Monetary Policy Report. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will release its rate decision and economic outlook report. RBA Governor Bullock will deliver a speech, and the Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy meeting minutes. Crude Oil: Last Friday overnight, oil prices on both exchanges fell together, with WTI down 1.87% and Brent down 1.53%. On a weekly basis, WTI surged 10.63% and Brent gained 5.36%, both posting a three-week winning streak. During the week, renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions drove oil prices sharply higher in the short term. However, as peace talks between the US and Iran showed potential to resume, both oil prices pulled back last Friday overnight. Wallstreetcn noted that on Friday, July 24, US Eastern Time, Reuters cited sources as saying that Pakistan was exploring ways to revive stalled US-Iran negotiations. Brent crude earlier briefly broke above the $100 mark. However, due to worsening disruptions to Red Sea energy shipments and fears of further escalation of the war in Iran, oil prices still posted a 10% weekly gain. "With continued US attacks on Iran, deeper Houthi involvement in the Red Sea, and the CPC pipeline disruption, crude supply is being squeezed again, and prices have inevitably risen," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah, adding that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz now appear close to the peak levels seen in March. (Jinshi Data APP) Barclays: If the current situation persists for another one, two, or three months, we see risks of oil prices rising by $2, $7, or $10 per barrel, respectively, compared to our 2026 Brent forecast of $96/bbl. (Jinshi Data APP) ING analysts said: "The key question is at what oil price level the Trump administration would face pressure to return to the negotiating table." They noted, referencing the oil price spike at the start of the conflict, that if Brent crude approaches $120/bbl, pressure to de-escalate the situation would increase significantly. For Iran, the more pressing issue is not the oil price itself, but how long it can withstand a sharp drop in oil revenue under the US blockade. (Jinshi Data APP)

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference. A reporter asked about the new round of US tariff measures that were to take effect today, and whether the Foreign Ministry had any comment. Lin Jian stated that China’s position on China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, that it opposes all forms of unilateral tariff measures, and that tariff wars and trade wars are in no one’s interest.

Spanish Steelmakers Association (UNESID) asks European Union & Spain government to create a more coordinated strategy to protect the importance of steel industry. Geopolitical tensions, global trade wars, a global steel overcapacity, and the high cost of energy cause the disruption of steel industry in Europe. UNESID even urges the Spain or European Union to restrict a law about procurement to prioritize European-made steel in strategic field to ensure decarbonization goals.

Trump's May 13-15, 2026 state visit starkly contrasts with his Nov 2017 trip, where $250B in deals epitomized globalization. Months later, in March 2018, a trade war erupted.