The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

Among them, the Gulf region was an important consumer market for China in the Middle East: China’s exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to Saudi Arabia reached 42,500 mt, and aluminum foil 58,000 mt; exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the UAE reached 103,500 mt, and aluminum foil 93,800 mt; the other four countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) accounted for combined exports of about 22,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip and about 11,000 mt of aluminum foil.

◼ At the beginning of 2026, Musk’s SpaceX plan for 100 GW of annual space PV capacity ignited the A-share market, with multiple concept stocks rising by more than 30 in a single month. At the same time, however, earnings previews from leading PV companies generally showed losses for 2025, and industry fundamentals remained in a deep winter. Behind the stark divergence between the speculative frenzy around the Musk-SpaceX concept and the earnings trough, is the market overly expecting a “second growth curve,” or is this a genuine signal of industrial transformation? ◼ As the global PV industry moves from rapid expansion into a new stage of rational development, its value has gone beyond that of clean energy alone: Against the backdrop of explosive growth in AI computing power driving massive electricity demand, compounded by energy security anxiety triggered by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, developing PV may become a core strategic choice for countries to achieve their “dual-carbon” goals, build autonomous and controllable energy systems, and reduce electricity costs for end-users. ◼ Since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict at the end of February, the world’s four major benchmark crude oil prices have entered a rapid upward trajectory. Before the outbreak of the conflict, oil prices had remained broadly stable; however, starting on March 2, as the fighting expanded and spread to the Persian Gulf, oil prices immediately entered a sharp uptrend. Note: Shanghai crude oil prices are converted based on the settlement-date exchange rate of 1:0.15. Source: Public information, SMM. ◼ Although the impact borne by different regions varies due to differences in energy mix, geopolitical location, and policy response, the surge in imported crude oil costs driving a broad rise in energy prices has become a common challenge facing all countries. Europe is a case in point. Although Europe’s direct dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil was not high, at only about 5 according to data from energy market intelligence firm Kpler, it remained highly dependent on the region for refined products such as diesel and aviation kerosene, as well as liquefied natural gas. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict directly pushed up Europe’s terminal energy prices—fuel prices at gas stations across the region surged, and natural gas prices broke above EUR 60 per megawatt hour on the 9th, reaching a new high since 2022. The continued rise in energy prices is bound to transmit into broader areas of the economy, increasing overall inflationary pressure and once again underscoring the importance of building secure and controllable energy systems. Accelerating the Clean Transition of the Global Energy Mix, the PV Industry Advances Toward High-Quality Development ◼ The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that, despite economic pressure, global electricity demand momentum remains strong in 2025, with growth rates in 2025 and 2026 expected to be 3.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Data from 2020 to 2025 showed that the global power market followed a trajectory of continued overall growth alongside structural transition toward cleaner energy , with the share of renewable energy sources such as solar rising significantly, although fossil fuels still accounted for the dominant share. ◼ According to the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions Scenario, solar power’s share in the energy mix is expected to rise from less than 2% at present to 12% in 2035 and 28% in 2050. This means PV installations are still far from reaching their ceiling, with substantial room for future growth. ◼ The past five years marked a critical period in which the global PV market shifted from rapid expansion toward rational development. The IEA forecasts that total global new PV installations over the next five years will reach about 3.68 TW, accounting for nearly 80% of new renewable energy additions over the same period, and are expected to become the world’s largest renewable energy source by the end of 2030. This is mainly due to its widening economic advantages—by 2024, the cost of solar PV power generation had already fallen 41% below the cheapest fossil fuel alternative, and these cost advantages are driving rapid growth in both PV installations and power generation share. Source: IEA, public information, SMM. ◼ As a key carrier of PV installations, especially the backbone of utility-scale power plants, solar panel mounting bracket installations are expected to maintain annual average growth of 5%-6% alongside installation growth. Specifically, to achieve annual average new PV installations of 500-600 GW, corresponding module demand is estimated at about 550-700 GW based on the capacity ratio. Assuming a conventional 1:1 module-to-bracket configuration, the annual average installation scale of brackets required for utility-scale PV plants alone would reach at least 250-300 GW. Source: public information, SMM. Escalating Challenges Reshape the Development Logic of the Global PV Market ◼ The PV industry is undergoing resonating internal and external pressures. Internally, the global economic slowdown has become intertwined with social issues, while the industry itself has entered a rational development stage after rapid expansion, making slower installation growth a certain trend. Externally, global trade frictions continue to intensify, with the US, Europe, and other regions erecting nearly insurmountable cost gaps through barriers such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties as well as local content requirements. Challenge 1: Global Trade Frictions and Escalating Trade Barriers ◼ In recent years, countries have introduced a series of policies to build PV trade barriers and reshape the global competitive landscape of the industry. The US imposed “double anti-” duties of as much as 3,403.96% on PV products from four Southeast Asian countries, South Africa raised module tariffs to 10%, and Brazil increased out-of-quota tariffs sharply from 9.6% to 25% through a quota system. Market access requirements for PV in India and Türkiye have also become increasingly stringent. Meanwhile, new supply chain control rules represented by the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) have extended trade barriers deeper into the industry chain. By setting red lines on “third-country dependence,” they have established quantitative standards for supply chain restructuring. This series of changes has reshaped the competitive dimensions of the international PV industry and significantly raised the threshold for PV product imports and exports. Source: public information, SMM. Challenge 2: New Dynamics in the PV Market, with Incentive and Restrictive Policies Coexisting Source: public information, SMM. Outside China Enterprises Pursue Multi-Dimensional Breakthroughs Through Internal and External Efforts ◼ The practices of solar panel mounting bracket enterprises in the US, India, and other countries show that the key to coping with policy shifts overseas lies in combining “service-oriented” and “high-value” strategies. First, vertically extending from single-equipment sales to a service ecosystem covering the entire life cycle. Second, deepening horizontally by continuously optimizing business structure and extracting value from higher value-added segments. Solution 1: Launch Dedicated Plans Closely Aligned with Government Policies and Local Demand ◼ The global PV industry has now entered a new stage deeply reshaped by both market forces and policy. The growth logic of enterprises is shifting from the past single dimension of relying on technology iteration and cost declines to multi-dimensional competition closely integrating complex policy environments with localized demand. Against this backdrop, the key to corporate success lies in accurately interpreting policy intentions and launching development plans aligned with both market and policy. Tata Power Renewable Energy Limited (TPREL) precisely aligned with India’s “PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana” and launched the dedicated “solar for every home” plan while continuing to provide customized PV solutions. In Q1 FY2026, it added 220 MW of new rooftop PV installations, surging 416% YoY. TPREL also actively responded to local manufacturing policies by establishing 4.3 GW of solar cell and module capacity, ensuring supply while avoiding import tariffs. Through the synergy of “policy response + local capacity + customized services,” TPREL has effectively translated policy dividends into market competitiveness and steadily consolidated its leading position in India’s PV market. Solution 2: Use Acquisitions as a Link to Integrate Resources and Extend from Single Products to the Entire Industry Chain ◼ Competition in the global PV industry has fully escalated into a contest of entire industry chain system integration capabilities, and enterprises’ growth engines are shifting from past reliance on advantages in a single segment to a new model of providing integrated solutions through resource integration. In 2025, Nextracker used acquisitions as the core to integrate resources across the full chain, successively acquiring foundation engineering firms such as Solar Pile International and Ojjo, module supporting firms such as Origami Solar, and electrical system firms such as Bentek, thereby building a full-chain product matrix spanning structural, electrical, and digital solutions. Its performance continued to surge, with revenue rising from $1.9 billion in FY2023 to $3.4 billion in the trailing twelve months ended September 2025. It ultimately announced its transformation into a comprehensive energy solutions provider by renaming itself Nextpower, targeting revenue of more than $5.6 billion in FY2030. This strategy enabled its successful transformation from a single-product supplier into an entire industry chain service provider, solidifying its leading position in the global market. Solution 3: Optimize Business Structure ◼ Trade protectionism in the current PV market continues to intensify, with various trade barriers being layered on one after another. In response to this challenge, PV enterprises can achieve the dual objectives of “compliant operations” and “market retention” through business structure optimization. To avoid the equity constraints on FEOC under the US OBBB Act, Canadian Solar Inc. initiated a US business restructuring with its controlling shareholder CSIQ: it established two new joint ventures to separately manage PV and energy storage businesses, with its own stake set at 24.9% to precisely meet compliance requirements. At the same time, it transferred out 75.1% equity in three overseas plants supplying the US market, receiving a one-off consideration of 352 million yuan. This move enabled Canadian Solar Inc. to retain earnings from the US market through dividends and rental income. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved net profit of 990 million yuan, while large-scale energy storage shipments rose 32% YoY. After the adjustment, it focused on strengthening its advantages in non-US markets and successfully stabilized its global business layout with a compliant structure, providing a typical model for the industry in addressing trade barriers. ◼ For Chinese enterprises, in the face of trade frictions and overseas capacity gaps, they need to break through via three paths—“building plants near core markets, reducing costs and improving efficiency through technological innovation, and coordinating both within and outside the industry chain”— by pursuing localized deployment in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other regions to avoid frequent trade frictions; promoting standardized production and high-end product R&D to enhance competitiveness; and building a “China + overseas” dual-circulation supply chain to stabilize costs. However, overseas expansion still faces challenges such as land and environmental protection costs, talent shortages, and supply chain fluctuations, requiring enterprises to conduct sound risk assessments, leverage policy support, and improve overseas investment service systems. Only by deeply integrating scientific capacity deployment, technological innovation, and industry chain coordination can the mounting bracket industry upgrade from “Made in China” to “Globally Intelligent Manufacturing” and achieve long-term development under the “dual carbon” goals. New Requirements Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, New Topics for PV Enterprises ◼ In a global market full of uncertainties, the consistency and strength of domestic policy have provided fertile ground for the growth of China’s solar panel mounting bracket enterprises. The newly released 15th Five-Year Plan further clarified China’s path for energy and industrial development. On the one hand, the construction of a new-type power system centered on consumption capacity has been listed as a priority task, and green manufacturing and full life cycle management have been formally incorporated into the assessment system. On the other hand, technological self-reliance and self-strengthening together with new quality productive forces have replaced scale competition as the main line of the new development stage. This series of changes signals that the country is driving a profound shift from “competing on capacity” to “competing on system value,” with the core goal of achieving autonomous and controllable energy structure. It is estimated that after the Two Sessions, various departments will successively roll out detailed plans to promote the full implementation of the blueprint. ◼ Key implementation measures include: 1) establishing a “dual controls” system for total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, while improving incentive and restraint mechanisms; 2) vigorously developing non-fossil energy and promoting the efficient use of fossil energy, while strengthening the construction of a new-type power system to ensure stable supply of green electricity; 3) applying both “addition and subtraction” by fostering green and low-carbon industries and promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industry; 4) in addition, accelerating the green transformation of production and lifestyles to consolidate the foundation for green development. ◼ From the perspective of regional development layout, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s PV industry will show characteristics of regional coordination: north-west China will become the strategic focus by virtue of its natural endowments, exporting electricity through cross-provincial green electricity trading and other means to achieve two-way matching between energy resources and power load; eastern regions, by contrast, will focus on local consumption by high-energy-consuming industries and zero-carbon industrial parks. Source: public information, SMM. ◼ SMM forecasts that China’s new PV installations are expected to reach 208 GW in 2025 and continue growing at an annual average rate of 9% over the next five years, exceeding 292 GW by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Utility-scale PV will remain dominant, with its installation share staying above 50%. Based on the same logic, we estimate that China’s PV installation market will maintain annual incremental growth of at least 100-120 GW. Source: public information, SMM. ◼ Focusing on China’s steel consumption market for solar panel mounting brackets, SMM estimates that annual steel consumption in China’s PV mounting bracket sector will average about 4-4.5 million mt from 2026 to 2030, accounting for about 30% of total steel consumption in the PV industry over the same period (based on 2026 data). Note: only installation demand for utility-scale PV mounting brackets is included, excluding distributed steel structures, replacement from existing asset depreciation, and exports. Source: public information, SMM. SMM Ferrous Consulting Based on its understanding of the global steel industry chain and regional markets, as well as its strong industry database and network resources, SMM is committed to providing clients with consulting services across the upstream, midstream, and downstream industry chain. Services include market supply and demand research and forecasts, market entry strategies, competitor cost research, and more, covering end-use industry from iron ore, coal, coke, and steel. SMM Ferrous has successfully served more than 300 Fortune Global 500 companies, China Top 500 companies, central state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises, publicly listed firms, and start-ups. 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The beginning of 2026 did not bring the calm usually expected in the global stainless steel industry chain ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year offseason. Instead, under the double pincer attack of surging raw material costs and escalating trade protectionism, the market is undergoing a violent restructuring.

The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, introduced the performance of China's national economy in May 2025 and answered questions from journalists. NBS: Economic Performance in May Generally Stable, with Continued Improvement in Some Indicators At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that the economy performed generally stable in May, with continued improvement in some indicators. New growth drivers expanded, and the momentum of high-quality development continued, demonstrating the strong resilience and vitality of China's economy. In May, influenced by factors such as the trade-in policy for consumer goods, market sales growth accelerated. Total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage point compared to the January-April period. The acceleration of consumption growth, especially the expansion of service consumption, is also boosting related service industries. In May, the production indices of the wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and catering industries all accelerated compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, new growth drivers such as high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and the new energy industry continued to expand, effectively promoting industrial transformation and ensuring stable economic performance. NBS: China's Policy Toolbox is Well-Stocked, with Macro Policies Held in Reserve At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, intensified counter-cyclical adjustments, and accelerated the implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas ("two majors") and the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins ("two news"). These efforts have effectively enhanced the vitality of consumption, driven production growth, and promoted transformation and upgrading, fully demonstrating the important role of macro policies in stabilizing economic performance. In the next stage, China's policy toolbox is well-stocked, with macro policies held in reserve. They can be dynamically adjusted and actively responded to according to changes in the situation, and will continue to safeguard the stable operation of the economy. NBS: Youth Unemployment Rate Declines for Three Consecutive Months, Employment Situation Remains Stable At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that the surveyed urban unemployment rate in China was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, the unemployment rate of the main employment group remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, indicating a continued stable employment situation. NBS: The Decline in China's Goods Imports is the Result of Multiple Factors At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, the decline in China's goods imports is the result of multiple factors. Since the beginning of this year, affected by the uncertainty of international trade policies, the growth momentum of the global economy has weakened, and global trade growth has also slowed down, which inevitably affects the growth of China's imports. Meanwhile, some countries have intensified trade restrictive measures, which have also had some adverse impacts on China's imports. In addition, international commodity prices have declined significantly this year, particularly energy prices. As a major importer of energy and raw materials, the decline in commodity prices has affected the growth of China's import value, as seen in the import values of products such as iron ore, crude oil, coal, and soybeans. Fu Linghui stated that while the import value of some commodities has declined, China's imports of major industrial products have maintained growth. In the first five months, the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 6% YoY, with imports of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, as well as integrated circuits, increasing by 69% and 7.3%, respectively. In the next stage, with the continuous expansion of domestic demand and the orderly expansion of independent and unilateral opening-up, China's vast market will undoubtedly provide greater opportunities and more choices for the world. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The real estate market continues to move towards stabilizing and recovering Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, with the accelerated implementation of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, the market has continued to move towards stabilizing and recovering. Judging from the situation in May, the real estate market has generally operated smoothly. The YoY decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities has continued to narrow, and the inventory of commercial housing has continued to decrease. From the perspective of market transactions, under the influence of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, real estate sales have remained generally stable. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% YoY, respectively, which was basically flat compared to January-April. Market transactions in some first-tier and second-tier cities have been relatively active, with the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing maintaining growth. From the perspective of market prices, the YoY decline in the selling prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings has continued to narrow. In May, the YoY decline in the selling prices of commercial residential buildings in most of the 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow. Among them, the YoY decline in the selling prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.4, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. The YoY decline in the selling prices of second-hand residential buildings narrowed by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points, respectively. From the perspective of commercial housing inventory, the area of commercial housing pending sale in May decreased by 7.15 million m² compared to month-end April, marking a decline for three consecutive months. Fu Linghui emphasized that, overall, the policies to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market have continued to show effects, and the real estate market operated generally smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs to be improved. Continuous efforts are still required to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Fourth National Agricultural Census is currently in the preparation stage Fu Linghui stated that the State Council recently issued a notice, deciding to conduct the Fourth National Agricultural Census in 2026. This is a major national survey of national conditions and national strength conducted on the new journey of comprehensively advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese-style modernization. In accordance with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on National Agricultural Census, the agricultural census is conducted once every ten years, with the year ending in 6 designated as the census year. In 2026, China will conduct its fourth National Agricultural Census. The main objective is to comprehensively understand the current state of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" in the new era, objectively reflect new developments in agricultural development, new appearances in rural construction, new changes in rural life, and new achievements in rural reforms. This census is of great significance for formulating scientific policies on "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers," promoting comprehensive rural revitalization, accelerating the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, and building a strong agricultural country. Currently, the preparations for the fourth National Agricultural Census are underway, primarily focusing on establishing census organizations, developing census plans, and conducting pilot censuses. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Vigorously Increase the Supply of High-Quality Products and Actively Promote the Improvement and Expansion of Service Consumption Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, overall, the economy has maintained stable operation. The effects of the trade-in policy for consumer goods have continued to emerge, and the vitality of the consumer market has gradually strengthened. Looking ahead, new forms and models of consumption, such as live-streaming e-commerce and instant retail, are becoming increasingly mature. The silver-hair economy, first-launch economy, and low-altitude economy are developing rapidly, and new growth points in the consumption economy are constantly emerging. However, it should also be noted that residents' consumption capacity and confidence still need to be improved, and the endogenous momentum of consumption needs to be enhanced. In the next stage, it is necessary to further implement the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption," focus on enhancing residents' consumption capacity and willingness, further improve the consumption environment, vigorously increase the supply of high-quality products, actively promote the improvement and expansion of service consumption, and facilitate the stable development of the consumer market. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Continuously Promote Urban Renewal and Renovation of Dilapidated Houses, and Increase the Construction and Supply of "Good Houses" Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, in the next stage, it is necessary to conscientiously implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively adapt to the reality of significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, continuously promote urban renewal and renovation of dilapidated houses, increase the construction and supply of "good houses," facilitate the release of rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand, actively construct a new model for real estate development, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Despite Many External Uncertainties and Instabilities, China's Comprehensive Advantages in Foreign Trade Development Remain Evident Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in May, China's foreign trade continued to withstand pressure and maintained steady growth. In May, China's total import and export volume of goods increased by 2.7%, and exports increased by 6.3%, maintaining steady and relatively rapid growth. According to data from market institutions, the new export orders index of the global manufacturing PMI in May was below the 50 mark and remained in contraction territory for two consecutive months. The negative impacts of trade protectionism and uncertainties on global trade growth have gradually emerged. Against this backdrop, China's trade in goods has maintained growth, demonstrating the strong international competitiveness and resilience of its foreign trade. Amid a complex and challenging international environment, with the rise of unilateralism and protectionism severely impacting the international economic and trade order, China's foreign trade has maintained steady growth. This is attributable to China's unwavering commitment to expanding opening-up, actively promoting the diversified development of foreign trade, as well as the high-end, intelligent, and green development of its industries, the upgrading of product structures, and the enhancement of market competitiveness. It is also due to China's active support for the development of foreign trade enterprises, creating favorable conditions for foreign trade development through measures such as improving trade facilitation. In the next stage, there will be many external uncertain and unstable factors, which will bring certain pressure to China's foreign trade growth. However, China's comprehensive advantages in foreign trade development remain evident, and the continuous expansion of high-level opening-up based on mutual benefit and win-win results will continue to support the steady development of foreign trade.

As the world places increasing emphasis on the sustainable use of resources and environmental protection, the status of the secondary metal market within the global metal industry has become increasingly prominent.