SMM Nickel July 6 News: Macro and Market News: (1) The People's Bank of China announced that on July 6, 2026, it will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multi-price bidding method, for a term of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (2) The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful China Construction". It proposed actively and steadily advancing and achieving carbon peak, implementing the national strategy to actively address climate change, fulfilling nationally determined contributions, solidly advancing carbon peak actions, and fully implementing the dual control system for total carbon emissions and intensity. Spot Market: On July 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price fell 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day, and the range for domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 126,920 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 0.12%. US non-farm payrolls disappointed, leading to more cautious market assessments of the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled significantly, and a sharp drop in the US dollar provided a catalyst for nickel prices to rebound. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[Tungsten News] SMM, July 6: Today, the domestic tungsten raw material market was mainly in the doldrums. Last Friday, a mine in Guangdong auctioned 43 standard tonnes (65% WO3 basis) of low-grade tungsten concentrates, which ultimately failed to attract any bids. Inquiries were sluggish, and with considerable market uncertainty, traders were less willing to enter the market. Smelters mainly restocked based on long-term contracts and rigid demand. Spot orders were concluded at transaction prices below the online price, with some deals done at 430,000–450,000 yuan per standard tonne (65% WO3 basis). According to the SMM survey, China’s tungsten concentrates production edged down MoM in June, mainly because safety inspections in Jiangxi and Hunan caused a slight decline in output at some mines. In addition, some small mines in Henan also reduced or suspended production due to reasons such as the exhaustion of first-half quotas. In July, with the flooding season in south China, tungsten concentrates production was expected to remain at low levels. However, amid sluggish shipments across the industry in Q2, there was still some inventory in the tungsten concentrates market waiting to be cleared. This week, attention will focus on long-term contract information in the industry and changes in downstream restocking sentiment.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Drift Higher, Spot Premiums Hold Steady] SMM, July 6 – Geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar supported a rebound in silver prices, but the high US dollar and US Treasury yields capped upside room. Spot demand was weak, premiums held steady, and transactions leaned toward the lower end.

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

[July 6 Morning Briefing] The US added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, below market expectations of an increase of 110,000. The combined job gains for April and May were revised down by 74,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged to the 128,000 yuan/mt level in early trading before pulling back slightly, and by the end of the morning session it was reported at 127,190 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. The US nonfarm payrolls report came in surprisingly weak, leading the market to turn more cautious on the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled markedly, and the US dollar fell sharply, providing a catalyst for a rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.