【SMM Steel】Turkey's March finished steel consumption rose 20.9% y/y to 3.2Mt, crude steel output up 6.4% to 3.3Mt. Q1 exports fell 6.8% in volume and 9.4% in value. Middle East tensions are reshaping supply chains. Turkey is gaining market share in Europe but surging scrap/energy prices and freight/insurance costs are squeezing margins. Steel imports surged 38.2% y/y in March. New EU trade restrictions are a critical issue. The association called for proactive steps to shield the domestic industry from dumping amid rapidly spreading steel protectionism.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,400.5/mt, touched a high of $13,462/mt early in the session before its center fluctuated downward, dipped to $13,328/mt before the center rose, and ultimately moved sideways to close at $13,391.5/mt, up 2.22%, with trading volume at 27,000 lots and open interest at 268,000 lots, an increase of 1,485 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 103,350 yuan/mt, touched a high of 103,370 yuan/mt right at the open, then its center dipped to 102,850 yuan/mt before staying high and moving sideways, ultimately closing at 103,160 yuan/mt, up 0.49%, with trading volume at 36,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, a decrease of 185 lots from the previous trading day, mainly indicating bears reducing positions.

[Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Elevated Inventory Highlight LME Outperforming SHFE in Aluminum Market] Overall, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse in the short term. LME strength will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, the focus will be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Limited Macro and Fundamental Positives, Insufficient Momentum for Lead Price Increases] US Trump said a US-Iran deal was "very likely," threatening stronger bombing if talks failed. After the Labour Day holiday, the lead market resumed normal trading, with lead ingot arrivals increasing at warehouses in multiple regions...

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continued Its Daytime Rise During the Night Session, Spot Market Trading Stalled]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weak Post-Holiday Demand, Prices Expected to Move Sideways in the Short Term] Yesterday, the ADC12 market saw divergent price adjustments. Some enterprises attempted to slightly raise their quotes, driven by the recovery in futures, but overall upward momentum for increases remained insufficient, with most enterprises opting to hold prices steady and take a wait-and-see approach. Meanwhile, a few enterprises chose to lower prices due to weak post-holiday demand and pressure from previously high quotes. The post-holiday market remained in a tug-of-war between weak demand and cost support, with limited improvement in transactions. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within a narrow range in the short term, with insufficient upward momentum.