The construction and trial operation of the second phase of the Mirador Copper Mine project under Tongling Nonferrous Metals have been completed, and the signing of its Mining Contract is currently being advanced.

SMM News, February 3: According to an official announcement from Jinguan Copper, a subsidiary of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., the company will begin public sales of 32 tons of crude selenium starting today. The base price has not been disclosed. The deadline for submitting quotation letters is before 11:30 a.m. on February 3, 2026.

SMM News, June 25 – According to an official announcement from Jinguan Copper, a subsidiary of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., the company began publicly selling 32 metric tons of crude selenium yesterday, though the reserve price was not disclosed. The deadline for bid submissions is June 25, 2025. Market observers noted that the one-day bidding window suggests the seller has strong confidence in offloading this batch of crude selenium. Recently, many selenium producers have ramped up tenders for selling selenium products. Some manufacturers have increased shipments ahead of mid-year, putting downward pressure on selenium prices. The rise in crude selenium supply from producers has sustained market oversupply, keeping prices weak across selenium products—including selenium dioxide—with a clear downward trend. Some analysts also highlighted that the outcome of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group’s tender will be crucial, as it may indicate the price resilience of crude selenium. SMM will continue to monitor developments.

On June 13, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Rare and Scattered Metals Forum (Indium, Germanium, Gallium, Bismuth, Selenium, Tellurium), hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Long Wensheng, General Manager of Changsha Aochang Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., elaborated on "The Current Application Status and Future Prospects of Minor Metal Selenium.

Previously, the US implemented reciprocal tariffs, sparking market concerns that a potential disruption in trade chains could drag down economic growth and push up inflation. Risk assets were broadly sold off, and copper prices were not spared from the downturn. Subsequently, trade conflicts began to ease, and copper prices embarked on a path of recovery. However, it can be observed that SHFE copper faced significant resistance at the gap left by the sharp drop in early April, while support below was also strong, with futures prices fluctuating rangebound around the 78,000 yuan level. Why has SHFE copper been caught in a dilemma recently? Is there a possibility for futures prices to break out of the rangebound situation in the future? Uncertainty remains over the tariff grace period Recently, negotiations between the US and various countries have been underway. In particular, after the 90-day reciprocal tariffs between China and the US were reduced to 10%, the market briefly traded on the logic of easing tariff tensions. However, the progress of some negotiations has been slow. Recently, Trump's attitude shifted, and he again proposed imposing tariffs on the EU. The market is also concerned about the possibility of renewed trade frictions after the tariff grace period. The positive impact of the short-term tariff easing has largely been priced in, making it difficult to provide further support for market sentiment. In addition, to divert attention from domestic contradictions such as the massive scale of debt, it is difficult for the US to restore tariffs on other countries to pre-2024 levels, and concerns about the economic growth outlook cannot be easily allayed. Judging from the recently released US economic data, the impact of tariff disruptions has so far been limited. US inflation in April was lower than expected, and the monthly rate of retail sales rose by 0.1%, exceeding expectations. The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May also exceeded expectations. However, the issue of the US's high debt burden still persists, with a significant amount of US debt maturing in June. Recently, Trump's tax cut bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, and the market continues to worry about the US's mounting debt. The impact of tariff increases on the economy also remains to be tracked. Mining-side processing fees remain at extremely low levels, and the supply side appears somewhat fragile Since last year, tight ore supply has been a major factor plaguing the copper market. However, except for the news in March this year that Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group would carry out production cuts and maintenance, the production of domestic smelters has largely not been constrained by tight ore supply and extremely low processing fees. Therefore, against the backdrop of steady to increasing production in the smelting sector, the issue of tight ore supply alone is unlikely to provide a substantial boost to copper prices. However, it cannot be overlooked that the current spot processing fees for domestic copper concentrates have fallen below -$40/dmt, and the annual and quarterly processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners are increasingly lower. Recently, the market has focused its attention on the mid-year negotiations between global copper mining giant Antofagasta and Chinese and Japanese smelters. Previously, sources revealed that due to tight copper concentrate supply, smelters may request a "zero-dollar" processing fee, or even a negative value, for the second half of 2025. If the rumors are true, the output of by-products such as sulphuric acid may not be sufficient to offset the losses, undoubtedly exacerbating the production pressure on domestic small and medium-sized smelters. Meanwhile, there have been more disruptions in overseas mining operations. Last Tuesday, Ivanhoe Mines announced that mining operations at its Kakula underground mine within the Kamoa-Kakula copper mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had been temporarily suspended, primarily due to the impact of an earthquake. Its Phase I and II beneficiation plants continue to operate at low capacity using surface ore stockpiles, while operations at the Kamoa mine and Phase III beneficiation plant remain unaffected. Kamoa-Kakula is a world-class, large-scale, ultra-high-grade copper mine. The Phase I mine, with a capacity of 6 million mt/year, was constructed at Kakula, while Phase II utilizes existing facilities at the Kansoko mine to increase capacity to 12 million mt/year. In the evening of May 23, Zijin Mining, another major investor in the mine, also issued an announcement, stating that the earthquake is expected to adversely affect the achievement of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's annual planned production, with the specific extent of the impact requiring further assessment based on the investigation results. Overall, due to the faster expansion of global smelters, the copper ore supply tightness is relatively severe and is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Against the backdrop of strong bargaining power of miners, the copper concentrate TCs negotiated by smelters are becoming increasingly lower, with the possibility of approaching zero. In the early stage, smelters adjusted their operations through measures such as long-term contracts, supplementing with other raw materials, and offsetting profits with by-products such as sulphuric acid, maintaining overall stable production. Recently, during the concentrated maintenance period of the year, there are still few maintenance plans among domestic smelters, and there has been no significant production cut due to ore shortages. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the long-term contract levels of copper concentrate TCs negotiated between overseas miners and domestic smelters. Before the ore supply tightness can be transmitted to the smelting end, it will still be difficult to provide more upward momentum for copper prices. If smelters indeed undertake substantial production cuts, copper prices may experience a sharp increase. Social inventory of domestic copper cathode accumulates slightly, with expectations of weakening demand Recently, the performance of global copper visible inventories has been divergent. COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound, rising from around 92,000 mt in early March to approximately 175,600 mt currently, reflecting the process of global copper flowing into the US amid expectations of a possible tariff hike on imported copper by the US. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories have been continuously pulling back, declining from around 260,000 mt in early March to approximately 164,700 mt currently, with a significant destocking amplitude. The current price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper remains at a relatively high level. Before the implementation of copper-related tariffs by the US, global copper will continue to flow into the US due to the existence of profits. Domestically, the traditional peak season of "Golden March, Silver April" has passed. Coupled with the rebound of copper prices from low levels, the downstream demand in the domestic copper market has weakened compared to the previous period, and the destocking of social inventories of copper cathode in China has halted. However, overall, the extent of inventory buildup has been very limited so far, and the inflow of domestic inventories has also been influenced by the outflow of exchange warrants and the inflow of inventories from bonded areas. From the downstream industry data released this month, the high-growth momentum of power grid investment continues, and the State Grid Corporation of China's annual record-high target is relatively certain. This aspect of demand will continue to support copper prices. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production continued to increase YoY, and industry prosperity persisted. However, in April, the production of refrigerators and air conditioners both pulled back, indicating a potential weakening in demand in this sector. Overall, during the moratorium period, global trade frictions have eased compared to the previous period, but uncertainties in negotiations still persist. Moreover, against the backdrop of deglobalization, market concerns about the economic outlook are difficult to completely dispel, and the suppression at the previous gap still exists. On the supply and demand side, concerns about tight ore supplies have lingered for a long time, and recent disruptions at the ore end have increased again, continuously consolidating the downward support for copper prices. Additionally, the siphon effect of the US has also made it difficult for copper inventories in other regions to accumulate significantly. However, the output of copper cathode remains stable, and there are expectations of a marginal weakening in demand. Therefore, a breakout from the current stalemate in SHFE copper prices may require more definitive changes to occur.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On May 14, 2025: As of April 30, 2025, all companies have disclosed their 2024 annual reports. According to SMM statistics, a total of 19 publicly listed firms operate copper smelters. These 19 publicly listed firms are: Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630), Jiangxi Copper Corporation (600362), Jinchuan Group International Resources Co., Ltd. (02362.hk), Daye Nonferrous Metals Group (00661.hk), Yunnan Copper (000878), Zijin Mining (601899), Yuguang Gold and Lead Group (600531), Western Mining Co., Ltd. (601168), Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. (000960), Shandong Humon Smelting (002237), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd. (601212), Ningbo Jintian Copper (601609), Huludao Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751), North Copper (000737), Zhejiang Chifoo Holding Group Co., Ltd. (002266), Guangdong Feinan Resources Co., Ltd. (301500), Beijing GEEN Environment Engineering Co., Ltd. (603588), and Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co., Ltd. (000060). 2024 Production and 2025 Production Plans for Copper Cathode at Each Smelter According to annual report disclosures and SMM's understanding, the total copper cathode production of the aforementioned 19 copper smelters in 2024 was 10.5558 million mt, with an increase of 642,000 mt, up 6.5% YoY. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the national production in 2024 was 13.644 million mt, with these 19 enterprises accounting for 77.37% of China's total copper cathode production. This figure increased by 1.04% compared to the same period last year. We expect that with the release of new capacity, industry concentration will increase again in the future. Regarding the specific situations of each smelter: Only 4 out of the 19 smelters experienced production cuts. Among them, Yunnan Copper had the largest decline, with a significant drop in production due to the relocation of its headquarters smelter. The largest increase was seen at Jiangxi Copper, with an annual copper cathode production of 2.2919 million mt, up 194,600 mt or 9.3% YoY in 2024, continuing to lead the copper industry. This was followed by North Copper, with a production increase of 178,800 mt compared to 2023, reaching 31.32 mt. Then came Jinchuan Group, with a production of 1.3272 million mt, an increase of 158,100 mt compared to 2023. In addition, based on their 2025 production plans, the total production in 2025 is expected to be 11.4028 million mt, an increase of 847,000 mt or 8%. According to SMM statistics, the new production from domestic smelters from January to May 2025 has already reached 536,400 mt, and it is highly probable that the annual increase of 847,000 mt will be achieved. In 2025, two smelters are expected to increase their production by more than 200,000 mt. Among them, the largest increase is expected to be from Yunnan Copper, with an increase of 254,000 mt, mainly due to the resumption of production after the relocation of the smelter and the commissioning of new smelters. Next is Jinchuan Group, which is expected to increase its production by 252,800 mt, thanks to the commissioning of a new smelter. In addition, due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, six smelters are expected to implement production cuts in 2025, two more than last year. Overall, although copper concentrate TCs hit a record low this year, it has not hindered the expansion pace of copper smelters.