Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were down YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports climbed sharply; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Supply Continues to Decline, Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Slide]: According to processing data from SMM's in-depth market survey, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, have declined to relatively low levels, with a combined operating rate of 47.05%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained unchanged from the previous week. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi dropped significantly, remaining consistently lower than that in Yunnan and declining by approximately 35 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Several smelters began halting production for maintenance this month to alleviate the tight supply of scrap. The rising cost of scrap recycling, coupled with the decline in tin concentrate TCs, has driven up production costs for enterprises, eroding the profits of secondary tin smelting. Meanwhile, considering the stalled production resumptions in the Wa region of Myanmar, combined with the impact of the rainy season on transportation, tin ore imports from the Wa region are expected to continue declining this month. Additionally, due to transportation bans imposed by relevant Thai authorities in southern Myanmar, tin ore supply will be reduced by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). In summary, given the decline in the supply of tin ore and scrap, smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are likely to maintain low operating levels or continue to experience a downward trend in the coming weeks.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Some Smelters Have Initiated Maintenance or Gradual Production Cuts; SHFE Tin Prices May Fluctuate Considerably in the Afternoon] Tight Supply of Tin Ore: The ban on transporting tin ore from southern Myanmar via Thailand continues to escalate, with domestic tin ore imports in June expected to decrease by 500-1,000 mt (metal content), exacerbating pressure on the raw material side. Due to insufficient raw material inventory (generally below 30 days) and low TCs, smelters in major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi have maintained low operating rates (approximately 54% in total), with some enterprises having initiated maintenance or gradual production cuts.

[SMM SHFE Tin Brief Review: Sluggish Growth in Orders for Consumer Electronics and Automotive Electronics, Significant Weakening of Purchase Willingness Among Downstream Enterprises] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fluctuated rangebound, opening at 265,100 yuan/mt and closing at 265,150 yuan/mt, with a trading volume of 13.505 billion yuan. Market trading was sluggish, and open interest decreased to 25,600 lots, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears near the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold, with a lack of clear direction in the short term.​​Tightening Raw Material Supply​​: The pace of production resumptions at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa region remains uncertain. Additionally, Thailand has suspended the transit of tin ore from Myanmar through its territory since June 4, which is expected to reduce domestic tin ore imports by 500-1,000 mt in June. Affected by the shortage of raw materials and the rainy season, waste tin recycling in Yunnan and Jiangxi, the two major producing regions, has been impacted. As a result, smelters' operating rates have remained low, and the supply of refined tin has continued to tighten.

[SMM Tin Market Brief: Industry orders in downstream sectors such as electronic solder are suppressed by high prices, compounded by the traditional consumption sector entering the off-season]​​​​Tin ore imports restricted​​: Due to the suspension of transportation routes in southern Myanmar by Thailand (starting from June 4) and internal transportation disruptions in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports in June are expected to decrease by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). Additionally, the production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing slowly, with the restoration of the power system requiring at least three months, making it difficult to change the tight supply situation of ore in the short term.​​​​Weak traditional demand​​: Industry orders in downstream sectors such as electronic solder and tinplate are suppressed by high prices, with some companies' operating rates falling below 60%.......