Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

According to CMOC's official WeChat: Recently, after CMOC completed the acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine project, four gold mines located in Maranhão, Bahia, and Minas Gerais states immediately entered full operation. In January this year, except for the RDM gold mine which had its crusher maintenance, originally scheduled for February, moved up to January, affecting production, the Aurizona, Santa Luz, and Fazenda gold mines all exceeded their monthly production targets. Previously, to smoothly take over the Brazilian gold mine project, CMOC Brazil promptly initiated preparations, working with the project team to systematically review comprehensive, technical, operational, and financial aspects, advancing work handover, process integration, and system alignment according to a list, while simultaneously conducting cultural promotion and ideological communication for front-line employees. The handover was not simply about "changing the sign." Through the niobium and phosphate sector employees, CMOC Brazil conveyed the company's corporate culture, management philosophy and model, and strategic development vision to the original team, allowing them to familiarize themselves and integrate into the new work environment early, enhancing understanding and trust, and welcoming the new phase with a more positive and composed mindset. This approach of "preparing in advance and stabilizing hearts first" helped the gold mine project employees maintain a stable mindset and normal work pace during the transition period. Their quick recognition of the company's management philosophy naturally followed. After completing the handover, the company's management and technical teams conducted a two-week systematic survey of the four gold mines, thoroughly understanding the current status of each production and operation link. The four gold mines taken over span three major states in Brazil, with the farthest mine being over 2,100 kilometers apart in a straight line, geographically dispersed, with inconvenient transportation and significant climate differences. Facing these objective challenges, the company, through on-site surveys, discussions, and specialized seminars, quickly grasped the frontline demands and critical issues needing urgent resolution. Based on this, five main tasks for 2026 were identified: in production organization, ensuring safe and stable operations at all mines to meet monthly and annual plans, while also preparing for resource succession; in exploration and reserve increase, scientifically and reasonably arranging geological exploration, seizing opportunities to expand and upgrade, providing technical support for extending the service life and expanding the scale of the mines, and systematically exploring greenfield projects to lay the foundation for long-term development; in capital expenditure, systematically planning and prioritizing key projects such as tailings dam safety upgrades; additionally, strengthening financial and asset management to ensure compliant operations; optimizing contract and service procurement management systems, initiating tenders for key projects, and achieving a smooth transition in management processes. Through comprehensive takeover and stable production and operation in January, the Brazilian gold mines have entered a new phase of autonomous operation. In the future, based on the development philosophy of safety, greenness, harmony, and sharing, Brazil's gold mines will continue to optimize management in addressing local challenges, laying a solid foundation for sustainable development.

[SMM Analysis: The "Key Anchor Point" in Great Power Rivalry: The US "Treasury Plan" and the Resource Reshuffle in Latin America] As the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project in Ecuador, developed by a Chinese enterprise, remains stuck in a "built but awaiting approval" deadlock, ten thousand kilometers away in Washington, the US Export-Import Bank, together with the President, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative called the "Treasury Plan." In the pause and the start, a global covert battle over critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and gallium is moving from behind the scenes to the forefront.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: AI Macro Sentiment Recedes Again, Triggering Market Downward Pressure, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Falls Over 5%]

[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] While the second phase of Chinese company's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador remains mired in a 'completed but awaiting approval' deadlock, 10,000 kilometers away in Washington, the President, alongside the Export-Import Bank of the United States, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative named 'Project Vault.'

This week, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, but production costs increased, further narrowing the profit margins of stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the full cost profit margin fell to -0.58% this week; if calculated using the cost of raw material inventory, the margin reached 1.78%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, SHFE nickel futures were driven higher mid-week by news of nickel mine approvals in Indonesia; high-grade NPI rose in tandem with the movement in SHFE nickel futures and expectations of tight nickel ore supply, which revived trading activity in the market as the Chinese New Year holiday approached—even though stainless steel mills had largely completed their procurement and stockpiling, traders held strong bullish sentiment. As of Friday this week, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade increased by 21.5 yuan per mtu, settling at 1,051.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, trading at scrapyards gradually halted as merchants closed for the holiday, leading to a complete suspension of market activity and stable prices. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, this advantage has not yet translated into price movements; although SS futures strengthened on news related to Indonesian nickel mines, the impact on the stainless steel scrap market was limited. Trading in February is expected to remain stagnant, with the key focus after the holiday being the pace of demand recovery; the market overall maintains optimistic expectations. As of Friday this week, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained steady, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. On the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, most stainless steel mills had completed their stockpiling, and trading of high-carbon ferrochrome essentially stalled; given that current prices are already at high levels, they are expected to remain stable before the holiday. As of Friday this week, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW, settling at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).