This week, the MHP market was tight overall, with nickel and cobalt coefficients fluctuating at highs. On the supply side, sulfur supply shortages caused some producers to cut production, MHP supply declined, and transaction coefficients edged up slightly. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt prices weakened, the risk of losses persisted, and nickel salt smelters were relatively less accepting of high-priced MHP. However, with some recovery in downstream ternary demand, some producers had rigid purchase needs, supporting the strength of MHP nickel coefficients. Driven by tight supply-demand expectations, the market is expected to hold up well in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market was also in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte has a clear economic advantage over MHP. However, on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term order signing, leaving limited available spot supply. On the demand side, actual consumption capacity was insufficient due to limitations in downstream production line compatibility. Overall, purchase sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and coefficients remained stable. The international sulfur market saw a shift in supply landscape, with geopolitical premiums gradually being cleared. The US and Iran signed and enacted a ceasefire memorandum on June 17, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be gradually unblocked, the US has started lifting the sea blockade, and Iran will complete mine clearance within 30 days. However, many shipping enterprises have temporarily suspended the resumption of routes, making navigation recovery a gradual process. Coupled with Turkey's export ban extended to end-September and Russia's ban extended to June 30, short-term supply disruptions persist. As the strait unblocking progresses, sulfur prices are expected to gradually come under pressure and swing wildly at highs in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to mine clearance progress, the pace of shipping recovery, and the direction of the final agreement within 60 days. On the nickel price front, as the US-Iran reconciliation gradually progressed this week, market rate hike expectations faded, and non-ferrous metals generally rebounded. Against the backdrop of stable MHP payables and high-grade nickel matte coefficients, the absolute prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte rebounded as nickel prices rose. Additionally, MHP cobalt prices and refined cobalt prices also rebounded. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to hold up well in the short term. Cost side, the MHP raw material market remained tight. Under the combined influence of production cuts of intermediates caused by sulfur shortage and just-in-time procurement of ternary materials downstream, MHP payables fluctuated at highs this week. Nickel prices, the US-Iran situation released signals of reconciliation, market rate-hike expectations subsided somewhat, and the previously oversold nickel prices rebounded this week. Overall for the week, nickel prices rebounded, MHP payables held steady, and the spot cost of nickel salt production rose slightly WoW.

In 1983, Goodenough and Thackeray developed lithium manganate (LiMn₂O₄, LMO) on the basis of the lithium cobalt oxide system. With a unique spinel structure and three-dimensional lithium-ion diffusion channels, LMO delivers excellent rate capability, along with simple production procedures and high safety performance. Its core advantage lies in abundant manganese resources and extremely low costs, which are far superior to cobalt-based precious materials, making LMO a key material for the cost reduction of lithium-ion batteries. After four decades of industrial iteration, LMO has been phased out of high-end passenger vehicle power batteries by ternary materials. However, relying on outstanding cost performance, it has firmly occupied segmented markets such as electric two-wheelers, power tools and low-speed electrical equipment. The industry currently presents a structural divergence, with tight supply of high-end modified LMO products and intense homogenized competition among low-end products. 1. Technical Origin: Distinct Performance Advantages and Incurable High-Temperature Defects LMO has a theoretical specific capacity of 148mAh/g and a practical mass-production capacity of around 120mAh/g, with a working voltage of approximately 4.0V. Japanese enterprises took the lead in commercializing LMO in the 1990s. Early manufacturers including Sanyo and Panasonic widely applied LMO to power tools and household devices that prioritize safety. In 2010, the Nissan Leaf adopted a modified LMO cathode system, becoming one of the early large-scale mass-produced pure electric vehicles. It entered the entry-level new energy vehicle market with its cobalt-free, high-safety and low-cost characteristics. Nevertheless, LMO has inherent technical bottlenecks, primarily weak high-temperature cycling stability. When the ambient temperature exceeds 55℃, manganese dissolution and disproportionation reactions easily occur, leading to rapid capacity decay. The dissolved manganese ions also damage the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) film on the negative electrode, continuously impairing battery service life. The industry has adopted modification methods such as element doping and surface coating to optimize performance, which can only alleviate capacity attenuation rather than completely solve the problem. With the rapid popularization of high-energy-density ternary materials, LMO has gradually withdrawn from the mainstream passenger vehicle power battery track, and shifted to low-speed lithium batteries and consumer electronics fields that prioritize cost and safety over extreme energy density. 2. 2026 Market Status: Cost-Driven Pricing and Sustained Structural Differentiation Currently, LMO prices are highly correlated with lithium carbonate quotations, which account for 60% to 70% of the total production cost of LMO. Fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices directly drive synchronous adjustments in the LMO market. The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, while internal differentiation is prominent. High-end modified LMO products with long-cycle and high-voltage performance enjoy stable demand and tight supply. By contrast, ordinary low-end LMO products face severe homogenization and fierce market competition, squeezing profit margins of small and medium-sized manufacturers, most of whom maintain slim profits or break-even operations. The demand structure is clear and stable. Electric two-wheelers serve as the largest downstream application scenario, accounting for over 60% of total demand and forming the fundamental support of the LMO industry. Demand for power tools remains rigid and steady. Benefiting from high safety and low cost, LMO demand in small and medium-sized energy storage sectors is expanding steadily, becoming a major growth driver for the industry. Overall downstream demand maintains stable operation without significant fluctuations. 3. Market Outlook: Consolidate Segmented Market Foundation and Expand Manganese-Based Material Layout In the short term, LMO prices will continue to fluctuate in line with lithium carbonate trends and downstream restocking rhythms. High-end modified products are expected to maintain structural premiums due to high production and technical barriers. In the medium term, the industry pattern will continue to optimize. Leading enterprises will dominate the market relying on advantages in technology, production capacity and cost, while backward low-end capacity will be gradually eliminated, further increasing industrial concentration. In the long run, conventional LMO is unlikely to re-enter the high-end passenger vehicle power battery track, but its rigid demand in four core segmented fields including electric two-wheelers, low-speed vehicles, power tools and small-to-medium energy storage will remain solid. Meanwhile, the manganese-based industry keeps iterating. Manganese elements continue to penetrate the mainstream new energy market through lithium manganese iron phosphate and ternary materials. The overall importance of manganese-based materials in the lithium battery industrial chain continues to rise.

As the sodium-ion battery scaling and commercialization process continues to accelerate, industry dividends are being released at a faster pace in 2026. April, as a key period at the start of Q2, saw a notable recovery in the sodium-ion battery cathode and anode materials market. Demand-side stockpiling willingness increased, capacity expansion pace accelerated, product mix differentiation became more prominent, and the industry as a whole moved toward a positive supply-demand synergy.

This week, ternary material prices edged slightly downward. From a raw material perspective, nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and manganese sulfate prices remained relatively stable with no significant fluctuations. The primary downward pressure on prices came from lithium sulfates: spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw notable declines in early week, weakening the cost support for ternary materials. Despite the pronounced decline in lithium sulfate prices early this week, ternary cathode material manufacturers showed relatively limited restocking interest. There are two main reasons for this: First, prior to the price adjustment, most cathode manufacturers had already finalized March orders with downstream battery cell makers and are currently in the order delivery phase , maintaining relatively sufficient raw material inventories. Second, manufacturers generally maintain a " buy on rising, not on falling " mentality, viewing this adjustment primarily as short-term volatility influenced by international situations, with no expectation of sustained lithium sulfate price declines. In terms of pricing, although lithium carbonate futures prices experienced adjustments, cathode manufacturers' quotations did not see significant declines, mainly because their raw material costs remain higher than current futures prices . Spot market transactions were also quite subdued this week, with market activity dominated by long-term contract supplies. On the demand side, the EV market showed seasonal recovery, but downstream customers' order fulfillment pace remained slow due to Q1 new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations . In contrast, e-mobility and consumer electronics markets saw relatively notable growth, primarily driven by some consumer batteries facing "export rush" demand , leading to forward order placements.

Looking ahead to March, production is expected to rebound as operations resume and the traditional demand recovery period begins. However, due to sluggish auto sales, weak overseas demand for ternary materials, and persistently high raw material prices, the pace of recovery may fall short of pre-holiday expectations.

Currently, the export of ternary precursors and ternary cathode materials enjoys a 13% VAT export rebate. A noticeable surge in concentrated "pre-rebate" exports is anticipated in the first quarter.