From Jan to May in 2025, the number of electric vehicles registered in countries around the world was approximately 7.520 million units, about 32.4% increase from the same period last year (5.682 mil units).

The World Bank released its latest Global Economic Prospects report on Tuesday, arguing that heightened uncertainty and high tariffs pose "significant headwinds" to the growth prospects of nearly all economies, leading to a substantial downward revision of its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%. Specifically, the World Bank projects global GDP growth for 2025 at 2.3%, a 0.4 percentage point reduction from its earlier forecast at the beginning of the year, while global GDP growth for 2024 was 2.8%. Since taking office, Trump has raised the US effective tariff rate from less than 3% to nearly 15%, the highest level in nearly a century, contributing to global trade tensions. The World Bank is the latest institution to lower its growth forecast due to Trump's erratic trade policies, despite US officials' insistence that a surge in investment and impending tax cuts will offset these negative consequences. Although the World Bank does not anticipate a recession, it expects global economic growth to be sluggish this year, which, excluding the exceptional year of 2020 (during the pandemic), will be the weakest since the global financial crisis. The report projects global trade growth for 2025 at 1.8%, down from 3.4% in 2024. This forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of the end of May, including the US's 10% benchmark tariff on imports from most countries, but excluding the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs. Economic models suggest that, on top of the already implemented 10% tariffs, a 10 percentage point increase in the average US tariff rate, coupled with retaliation from other countries, could further reduce global GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025. An escalation of the tariff war would lead to a stagnation in global trade in the second half of this year... followed by a widespread collapse in confidence, a surge in uncertainty, and financial market volatility. Despite this, the World Bank states that the risk of a global recession is less than 10%. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, said, "Uncertainty remains a powerful headwind, like fog on a runway, slowing investment and casting a shadow over the outlook." However, Kose noted signs of increased dialogue on trade, which could help dispel uncertainty, and that supply chains are adapting to the new global trade landscape rather than collapsing. He mentioned that global trade growth could see a mild rebound to 2.4% in 2026, and that the development of artificial intelligence could also drive growth. "We believe that uncertainty will eventually decline, and once the fog clears, the trade engine may restart, albeit at a slower pace," he said. In developed countries, due to increased trade barriers, record-breaking uncertainty, and heightened financial market volatility, the World Bank expects the US economy to grow by 1.4% in 2025. In January this year, the institution had forecast a 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2025. The economic outlook for the Eurozone is relatively bleak, with an expected growth rate of 0.7% this year; Japan's growth rate is expected to be 0.4% this year. As a whole, emerging markets and developing countries are expected to grow by 3.8% this year, down from the 4.1% forecast in January. Mexico, which heavily relies on trade with the US, has seen its growth forecast for 2025 revised down by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2%.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper was closed overnight. The SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,740 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 78,340 yuan/mt and a low of 77,710 yuan/mt during the session. The closing price was 78,150 yuan/mt. The overall trend fluctuated upward. The price increase was 0.31%, with a trading volume of 26,894 lots and an open interest of 157,842 lots.

This week, Hong Kong stocks generally maintained their strong momentum, with the weekly performances of the three major indices varying. By the close of trading, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) had risen by 1.10% week-on-week to close at 23,601.26 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index had fallen by 0.65% week-on-week to close at 5,246.87 points; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) had risen by 1.36% week-on-week to close at 8,583.86 points. Note: Weekly performance of the HSI since the beginning of the year Notably, the HSI has achieved seven consecutive weeks of gains. Medium and long-term optimism becomes consensus among institutions Huatai Securities pointed out that despite uncertainties surrounding tariff issues and potential short-term disruptions due to high US Treasury yields, the risk premium of Hong Kong stocks has significantly pulled back, and the easing of tail risks in the economy will drive up the market's center of gravity. Morgan Stanley recently raised its target for the HSI to 24,500 points by 2026, emphasizing the valuation reshaping opportunities brought about by structural improvements in the Chinese stock market. However, CICC cautioned about short-term risks, believing that current market sentiment has recovered to a cyclical high, and the marginal effect of policy efforts may weaken. 3SBIO leads the market gains this week In the list of weekly gainers, 3SBIO (01530.HK) led the market with a weekly gain of 57.38%. The pharmaceutical company's collaboration agreement with Pfizer on a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug set a new industry record, with an upfront payment plus milestone payments totaling up to $6 billion, creating a new benchmark for out-licensing of domestically developed innovative drugs. Another pharmaceutical stock that performed well was ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (01541.HK), which rose by over 36% week-on-week. The company recently announced clinical progress, including the successful enrollment of three patients in the Phase Ib clinical trial of its first dual-target large molecule drug for autoimmune diseases, Amurevup alpha (CD47xCD20, IMM0306), targeting neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD), with all patients receiving the drug smoothly. In addition, Alibaba Pictures surged by over 50% this week. The company recently announced its renaming to "Damai Entertainment Holdings Limited," focusing on the layout of the offline entertainment ecosystem and enhancing its brand recognition in the overall entertainment market. Subsequently, Huatai Securities and Citi raised their target prices to HK$0.75 and HK$0.92, respectively. Both Datang Gold and Lingbao Gold benefited from the trend of international gold prices, rising by 28.13% and 27.44%, respectively. In terms of news, COMEX gold continued to strengthen after breaking through $3,300 this week and is currently trading near $3,353. Technical pullback and signs of capital rotation emerge in the market on Friday Despite maintaining the recent upward trend overall this week, today's performance was not ideal. By the close of trading on Friday, the HSI had risen by 0.24%, the Hang Seng Tech Index had fallen by 0.09%, and the HSCEI had risen by 0.31%. The futures market showed significant divergence, with the pharmaceutical and gold sectors bucking the trend to strengthen, while the real estate sector was weighed down by development and investment data, and tea beverage stocks saw a correction as investors took profits. Pharmaceutical stocks were boosted by multiple positive factors. By the close of trading, Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK), Luye Pharma (02186.HK), and Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) had risen by 25.20%, 5.74%, and 4.18%, respectively. Note: Performance of pharmaceutical stocks In terms of news, pharmaceutical stocks have recently been receiving a series of positive developments, including the aforementioned agreement between Pfizer and 3SBio, as well as the strong debut performance of Hengrui Medicine on its first day of trading in Hong Kong. Zhongtai Securities stated that since 2024, despite monthly fluctuations in overseas CPI data, there is an expectation of a gradual shift towards interest rate cuts, with an anticipated improvement in investment and financing conditions. It is expected that integrated CRO/CDMO companies primarily reliant on overseas revenue, as well as domestic preclinical CRO companies, will see opportunities for valuation recovery. The first-day performance of Hengrui Medicine's H shares attracted significant market attention, with the stock surging over 30% during intraday trading. The company received over 450 times oversubscription during its IPO phase, highlighting the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies as international institutions scrambled to acquire shares. The safe-haven attribute of the gold sector became prominent. By the close of trading, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK), and Zijin Mining (01815.HK) had risen by 9.16%, 3.28%, and 2.63%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks On the news front, spot gold prices continued to rise, currently standing above $3,350 per ounce. CITIC Futures pointed out that the passage of Trump's "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" through the House of Representatives has increased the likelihood of large-scale tax cuts being implemented, with expectations rising for a continued climb in the US deficit rate. This aligns with Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, as the disorderly expansion of debt leads to a gradual contraction in the US dollar's creditworthiness, providing solid support for the medium and long-term bullish outlook on gold. Louise Street, Senior Market Analyst at the World Gold Council, stated that the macroeconomic situation remains difficult to predict, and this uncertainty may bring further upside potential to gold prices. As the turbulent situation persists, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset from institutional, individual, and official sectors may further increase in the coming months. Real estate stocks were weighed down by development and investment data. By the close of trading, Yuexiu Property (00123.HK), Ronshine China (03301.HK), and China Vanke (02202.HK) had fallen by 2.68%, 1.44%, and 0.79%, respectively. Note: Performance of real estate stocks In terms of news, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that from January to April, national real estate development investment reached 2,773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. Among this, residential investment was 2,117.9 billion yuan, down 9.6%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing reached 282.62 million m², down 2.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the January-March period. Tea beverage stocks weakened slightly By the close, Cha Panda (02555.HK), Tenfu (06868.HK), and Mixue Group (02097.HK) fell by 4.19%, 4.09%, and 1.40%, respectively. Note: Performance of tea beverage stocks In terms of news, most tea beverage stocks, including Cha Panda, weakened, which was related to profit-taking by some investors. Taking Mixue Group as an example, since its listing, the company's shares have risen by over 150% in total. Stocks with abnormal movements NetEase Cloud Music rises over 5%, with Q1 gross profit up nearly 14% QoQ NetEase Cloud Music (09899.HK) rose by 5.32% to close at HKD 217.60. In terms of news, NetEase Cloud Music's net revenue for the first quarter of this year was RMB 1.858 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 683 million, corresponding to a gross profit margin of 36.7%. Bilibili rises over 4%, with Q1 results exceeding expectations Bilibili-W (09626.HK) rose by 4.35% to close at HKD 146.40. CMB International released a research report stating that Bilibili announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with total revenue increasing by 24% YoY to RMB 7 billion, in line with market consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, turning around from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the first quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations of RMB 248 million. For the second quarter of this year, CMB International expects Bilibili to maintain a 20% YoY revenue growth rate. Meanwhile, benefiting from the strong momentum of its advertising and mobile gaming businesses, its profit margin will further expand.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Dollar Weakens, Copper Prices Hold Up Well] On May 22, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the 2506 contract for the current month were reported at a premium of 110-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 135 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt MoM. Today is Friday, and currently, low-priced supplies have been largely purchased, with a significant reduction in warrants. However, warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. It is anticipated that the center of the premium will still struggle to rebound significantly today...

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Bullish and bearish factors intertwine, direction remains unclear; SHFE aluminum to maintain rangebound fluctuations in the short term]