This week, domestic iron ore concentrates prices edged down slightly. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi of Hebei remained relatively stable; in Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping of western Liaoning, prices fell by 1-5 yuan/mt; in east China, prices declined by 10-15 yuan/mt. Although an accident occurred at a major mine in east China this week, the impact on local production was limited. Other regional ore processors mostly maintained normal production as planned. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mills declined due to production restrictions, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Overall, domestic concentrates prices showed a slight downtrend this week. Looking ahead to next week, some ore processors in northern China are expected to resume production, and total iron ore concentrates output may edge up slightly, but the tight supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces is expected to see a slight increase. Domestic concentrates prices are expected to edge higher slightly overall. [SMM Iron Ore]

Iron ore prices drifted lower this week, with the most-traded contract I2609 leading the decline in ferrous metals, hitting an intraday low of 706 yuan/mt , a new year-to-date low. This round of decline was driven by multiple factors: on one hand, policy expectations from the Politburo meeting fell through , causing market sentiment to weaken markedly, and speculative funds accelerated their exit; on the other hand, fundamental pressure continued to intensify —last week, port arrivals of iron ore surged 54% WoW, while in the Tangshan area, stricter environmental protection-driven production restrictions led to a roughly 20% reduction in hot metal output at some steel mills, with daily average hot metal production falling 16,000 mt, clearly shrinking demand and significantly accumulating port inventories. Under the combined weight of weak fundamentals and bearish sentiment , the most-traded contract posted a maximum intraday decline of over 3%. Compared to the drastic correction in futures, port spot cargoes showed relative resilience , with a markedly narrower decline. Particularly noteworthy is that some ore types with structurally tight supply , such as mixed fines and Ukrainian concentrates, saw relatively small price declines due to limited tradeable resources, demonstrating some grade premium resilience. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Price Index Source: SMM Domestic iron ore concentrates prices edged down this week. From a regional perspective, prices in areas such as Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei were relatively stable; those in Chaoyang, Beipiao, Jianping, etc. in western Liaoning fell by 1-5 yuan/mt; while east China saw declines of 10-15 yuan/mt. In the Tangshan area, the domestic ore market was generally stable this week, with the delivered price, tax included, of 66% grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis closing at 980–985 yuan/mt. Local iron ore concentrates supply remained relatively tight, providing some support to ore prices; steel mills, affected by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, saw weak daily consumption demand and mostly maintained inventory destocking strategies, with supply-demand bargaining persisting in the market. Although an accident occurred at a major mine in east China, its impact on local production was limited, and mining and selecting operations in other areas mostly proceeded normally as planned. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills declined due to production restrictions, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Overall, domestic concentrates prices showed a slight downward trend this week. Chart: Larger Decline in Imported Ore Widened Domestic-Imported Ore Price Spread Outlook for next week Imported ore: Looking ahead to next week, environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the Tangshan area are gradually being lifted, and blast furnaces at steel mills are resuming production one after another. Meanwhile, coke prices continued to decline, improving steel mill profitability somewhat, and hot metal output is expected to extend its modest rebound in the near term, providing some support to iron ore demand. However, global iron ore shipments simultaneously rebounded, with a more pronounced increase. Supply-side pressure was significantly greater than demand pressure. Under a loose supply-demand balance, port inventories are expected to continue accumulating, thus capping the upside room for ore prices. Cost side, affected by the escalating US-Iran conflict, rising crude oil prices drove a slight rebound in ocean freight rates, providing some cost support for iron ore prices. Additionally, market pessimism was somewhat released this week, and ore prices dropped more than expected, creating a need for a technical rebound in the short term. But considering overall weak end-use demand, it is hard to provide sustained upward momentum. Ore prices next week are expected to consolidate and stage a corrective rebound, with limited upside room. Domestic Ore: Looking ahead to next week, some ore dressing plants in parts of North China are expected to resume production, and overall iron ore concentrate output may rebound slightly. However, the tight supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly; demand side, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces is expected to see a small increase. Overall, domestic concentrate prices may inch up slightly.

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

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Today, the Tangshan domestic ore market was generally stable. The delivered price, tax included, of 66% grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis stood at 980-985 yuan/mt. Local iron ore concentrates resources remained relatively tight, providing some support to local ore prices. Steel mills were under environmental protection-driven production restrictions, with weak daily consumption demand, mainly consuming inventories; sellers and buyers in the market remained in a standoff. However, iron ore futures were weak recently, which was expected to exert some downward pressure on local ore prices. It was estimated that local iron ore concentrates prices would likely consolidate weakly in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Today, futures moved sideways in a narrow range and closed at 3,078, up 0.16% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, prices in many regions were stable during the morning session with a wait-and-see stance, but in the afternoon, transaction performance was poor in a few markets, with bottom prices easing by 10-20 yuan/mt. Overall trading performance was moderate. Supply side, some steel mills in North China plan to suspend wire rod production in the short term due to profitability issues. Additionally, recent environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan have led some producers to implement temporary furnace idling and production stoppages, though the impact on construction steel output has been limited. Other mills are mostly maintaining normal production. Demand side, the futures rally today boosted trading sentiment in east China, while downstream procurement in other regions remained cautious. Transactions at low prices were moderate, but high-priced resources struggled to find buyers, resulting in overall trading performance that remained moderate throughout the day. It is understood that there is currently a shortage of specifications in the Hainan and Guangdong markets. Specifically, the Hainan market has seen low arrivals, and traders are actively pushing up prices, with bottom prices rising rapidly. Looking ahead, during the traditional off-season, the market’s “weak reality” is unlikely to ease, and coupled with steel mills' per-ton losses not yet reaching the tipping point for voluntary production cuts, fundamental pressures will continue to weigh on spot price increases. Short-term price trends are expected to continue to move sideways.