The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

The Canadian Department of Finance stated in a press release that the Canadian government decided to extend its steel and aluminum tariff measures for one year. Canada plans to extend the tariff rate quota (TRQ) system on steel for non-US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) partner countries. Meanwhile, Canada also plans to extend the remission plan for countermeasure tariffs on certain US steel, aluminum products, and certain derivative products. The above extensions still require cabinet approval, and the two measures will remain in effect until June 27, 2027, and June 30, 2027, respectively.

Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

【SMM Stainless Steel Market】Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced new measures to protect the domestic steel industry. Starting next month, Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs) for steel imports will be tightened: quotas for countries without free-trade agreements (like China, Turkey) will be cut to 20% of 2024 levels, while those with agreements (like South Korea, Vietnam) will be set at 75%. Imports exceeding these quotas face a 50% tariff. Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to specific steel derivative products (e.g., wind towers, fasteners) from all countries, including the US. These steps aim to boost domestic demand and prevent dumping as Canadian mills face lost access to the US market.

The EU has proposed to cut imports of certain silicon- and manganese-based ferroalloys by 25% starting November 18, 2025, through November 17, 2028. The goal is to help European producers recover while ensuring enough supply for downstream users. Imports will be managed through tariff rate quotas (TRQs). Shipments within the quota are duty-free, while excess volumes will face tariffs. The inclusion of Norway and Iceland, both part of the European Economic Area (EEA), adds another layer of concern, as it could strain trade relations and broader economic ties due to their supply accounting for around half of EU imports.