[SMM Aluminum Express] China's secondary aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas stood at 20,400 mt today, down 1,169 mt from last Friday.

SMM, June 29 – Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,913/mt. It continued to slide during Asian trading and then consolidated in a narrow range at a low level of $1,903.5-1,906/mt. Entering European and US trading hours, fund inflows lifted the contract, causing it to rebound amid fluctuations. It rose all the way to a daily high of $1,916.5/mt, but encountered heavy selling pressure and lacked sustainable bullish momentum. After peaking, it turned lower again, falling to a low of $1,901/mt, and finally settled at $1,901.5/mt, down $11/mt, a decline of 0.58%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,220 yuan/mt. In early trading, it drifted lower, gradually breaking below the daily moving average, and dipped to 16,135 yuan/mt. After a brief sideways consolidation mid-session, it recovered some losses and finally closed at 16,170 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick. It was down 85 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.52%. This week, production cuts and suspensions at secondary lead smelters continued to increase. On the primary lead side, multiple smelters in Henan and Yunnan that had previously undergone maintenance resumed production one after another. The industry operating rate rose WoW, and bullish and bearish factors interwove on the supply side. On the consumption side, as month-end approached, large downstream enterprises entered the mid-year account closing and concentrated inventory check phase, generally suspending raw material procurement, and some orders were postponed until July. Fundamentals lacked strong support. On the sentiment front, attention should be paid to the fluctuations that the easing of US-Iran tensions may bring to the overall nonferrous metals sector. In summary, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,913/mt. Prices continued to decline during Asian trading hours, then moved sideways in a narrow range of $1,903.5-1,906/mt. Entering European and US sessions, inflows drove a rebound in futures. The price climbed to an intraday high of $1,916.5/mt, but heavy selling pressure above and insufficient bullish momentum led to a downward reversal after the spike, hitting a low of $1,901/mt. It finally settled at $1,901.5/mt, down $11 or 0.58%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,220 yuan/mt. It drifted lower in early trading, gradually breaking below the daily moving average support to a low of 16,135 yuan/mt. After a brief sideways consolidation in the mid-to-late session, it recovered some losses, finally settling at 16,170 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 85 yuan/mt or 0.52%. On the macro front: US media reported that the US and Iran agreed to halt mutual attacks and will meet in Qatar this Tuesday. Putin stated that Russia proposes both sides stop strikes on each other's deep territory targets. Fed Chairman Vause appointed two senior central bank economists as advisors. Nasdaq Exchange: SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, 2026. Total investment in key energy projects and new business models under the 15th Five-Year Plan will exceed 200 trillion yuan. National Energy Administration: Future western regions need to export products and Tokens outwards. TFC Communication: The tight supply contradiction for individual materials will gradually ease starting in H2. "National subsidies" continue! The third batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds has been allocated. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead stopped falling and saw a relative rebound, while market circulation in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was limited with few quotations. Elsewhere, EXW supply from primary lead smelters was ample. In southern China, shipments were still at discounts, with mainstream production area quotations at premiums of -80 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Some premiums of 100 yuan/mt still existed in certain regions. In the secondary lead market, smelters' sentiment to hold back from selling eased slightly, with secondary refined lead quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. As month-end approached and new long-term contracts began, downstream enterprise purchases were limited. Apart from some enterprises buying on a dip for rigid demand, most maintained a wait-and-see stance, resulting in sluggish transactions in the spot market. Inventories: On June 26, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,075 mt to 297,450 mt. On June 25, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions fell by 1,300 mt to 67,500 mt. Lead Price Forecast Today: Production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters continued to increase this week. For primary lead, multiple smelters in Henan and Yunnan that previously underwent maintenance have resumed production one after another, pushing the industry operating rate up MoM. Supply side, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. As month-end approaches on the consumption side, large downstream enterprises have entered the mid-year account closing and centralized stocktaking phase, generally suspending raw material procurement, with some orders delayed to July for execution. Fundamentals lack strong support. On the sentiment side, close attention should be paid to the fluctuation impact on the overall nonferrous metals sector brought by the easing of US-Iran tensions. Overall, in the short term, lead prices are likely to mainly trade in the doldrums.

[Destocking Accelerates to Provide Support, Export Concerns Limit Rebound Room] The US Fed's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation has been somewhat volatile but shows no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,269.5/mt. It dipped to a low of $13,250/mt during wild swings in early trading, then the center of copper prices drifted higher and rose to $13,378/mt near the session's end, finally closing at $13,322/mt, up 0.05%. Trading volume reached 19,100 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, down 1,285 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,240 yuan/mt, immediately dipped to 102,020 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices moved steadily upward and reached a high of 102,930 yuan/mt near the session's end, finally closing at 102,740 yuan/mt, up 1.16%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest stood at 156,000 lots, down 3,193 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Module Hold-Price Sentiment Edges Up, Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable] Last week, mainstream transaction prices in China changed little, but the price spread between high and low prices remained large. EXW prices from enterprises competing for orders have recently started approaching 0.65 Yuan/W, though trading volume was limited. Mainstream tax-inclusive delivered prices in China stayed above 0.7 Yuan/W, and current quotations from top-tier players are still relatively high. The market exhibited a situation where half are holding prices firm while the other half are selling at low prices. Currently, high-efficiency distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N modules are quoted at 0.731 Yuan/W, 0.736 Yuan/W, and 0.739 Yuan/W, respectively; and centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7185 Yuan/W, 0.7385 Yuan/W, and 0.729 Yuan/W, respectively.