SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

Nigerian officials have announced the country’s most significant critical minerals discovery in recent years, as Africa’s largest oil producer seeks to diversify its economy and position itself as a key supplier of materials needed for the global energy transition. Last week, at the African Natural Resources & Energy Investment Summit in Abuja, Nigeria announced the discovery of a new polymetallic ore field in Kaduna State, including high-grade deposits of platinum group metals, gold, nickel, lithium, and rare earths. The Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, described Kaduna as a “world-class” metallogenic province and one of the most significant advances in the country’s mining sector in recent years. The discovery was jointly made by private company Steron Mining and the Nigerian Geological Survey Agency (NGSA), and was later confirmed by NGSA.

Leveraging the dual-carbon strategy and the development momentum of the circular economy, China's recycled metal industry has achieved a globally leading scale while simultaneously facing numerous developmental challenges. To assist enterprises in seizing policy and market opportunities and addressing industry challenges, SMM will host the 2026 SMM Recycled Metals Industry Summit Forum and Special Session on Casting Technology in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, from August 17 to 18, 2026 . Youki Co., Ltd. cordially invites you to witness and participate in building an international platform for exchange, cooperation, resource sharing, and collaborative innovation, contributing to the construction and improvement of a global resource recycling system and supporting the transition to a green economy. Click to register immediately. Youki Co., Ltd. was established in 2012, with its headquarters located in Saitama Prefecture, Japan, and branches in Kanagawa Prefecture, Hokkaido, and other regions. The company is currently engaged in the import and export trade of non-ferrous metals and H-section steel. The company has established long-term, stable partnerships with multiple publicly listed firms, and its exports have been growing steadily year by year. With over a decade of experience in import and export trade, the company adheres to the principles of integrity, fairness, and a proactive attitude, striving relentlessly to secure a prominent position in the recycling industry. Amid intense competition in and outside China, we seize the best opportunities while embracing the greatest challenges. As the company's business and scale continue to expand, we have established another metal sorting and processing plant in Joso City, Ibaraki Prefecture, enhancing our team's capabilities while maximizing our contribution to society. Finally, we take this opportunity to "recruit new talent" and inject fresh vitality into the industry. We sincerely welcome motivated individuals to join the Youki family, fostering mutual development, progress, and the realization of social value. Contact Information Headquarters 〒343-0011 2-129 Masubayashi, Koshigaya City, Saitama Prefecture TEL: 048-961-8621 FAX: 048-971-8622 Yokohama Branch 〒245-0066 896-1 Matanocho, Totsuka Ward, Yokohama City TEL: 045-719-0868 Mobile: 080-4926-8688 FAX: 045-438-9686 Ibaraki Factory 〒303-0041 3546-1 Otsu Toyokacho, Joso City, Ibaraki Prefecture TEL: 0297-38-8899 FAX: 0297-38-8898 E-mail: Website: WeChat: 1430611173 SMM Conference Contact Zhang Xiaoyao Mobile: +86 15729506965 Email:

SMM News on July 1: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.44%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.86%. SHFE lead fell 1.46%. SHFE zinc rose 1.01%. SHFE tin rose 0.93%. SHFE nickel fell 0.61%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.64%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 5.65%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.6%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 3.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.81%, HRC fell 0.52%. Rebar fell 0.79%, stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2%, the most-traded coke contract fell 2.33%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals all fell. LME copper fell 0.91%, LME aluminum fell 1.18%, LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc fell 0.69%, LME tin fell 1.53%. LME nickel fell 0.37%. Precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 2.74%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.37%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.5%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.91%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 9.81% to 2,560 points. As of 11:36 on July 1, midday futures quotes for some contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported at parity, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt... Macro front China: [The PBOC net withdrew 1,162.5 billion yuan from the open market today.] The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.4%. Today, 662.5 billion yuan in 7-day and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen's June housing transactions hit a near 6-year high.] According to data released by Shenzhen Centaline Research Center today, Shenzhen's new and secondhand home transactions totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. The combined new and secondhand home transaction volume hit a new high for the same period since 2021. Among them, first-hand residential (presale + existing) online signings totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY; second-hand residential transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.16% to 101.33. Fed’s Hammack said: The labour market is near full employment, with good growth prospects. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy at private wealth management and investment firm Glenmede, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, said investors should expect the US June unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by about 87,000. While this represents a pullback from May’s 172,000, in the current labour market environment of “low hiring, low layoffs,” it still counts as a solid outcome. Although employment fundamentals remain largely intact, the Fed’s focus has shifted to inflation, meaning that the timing of any future easing measures will depend more on inflation pressures than on job growth itself. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.0%, and the chance of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data highlights: Today will see the release of US June Challenger Job Cuts, US June ADP Employment Change, US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final), US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US May Construction Spending MoM, UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM, UK June Manufacturing PMI (final), Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY, France June Manufacturing PMI (final), Germany June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June CPI YoY (preliminary), and Eurozone June CPI MoM (preliminary), among others. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke at the “Policy Panel” session of the ECB’s Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Technology Summit is held from July 1 to 4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (China) was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada was closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices on both benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.41%. Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed the UAE lifted exports of crude oil and condensate to a record high in June, shortly after leaving OPEC. Rauball, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, said UAE exports of crude and condensate averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day this month, a record high and well above the pre-Middle East conflict level of 3.1 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. The UAE's previous export peak was 3.44 million barrels per day in April 2020, when Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a brief oil price war. Emma Li, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, said crude loadings from Abu Dhabi hit 4 million barrels per day between June 1 and 29, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 3.4 million barrels per day. Exports also rose to a record 3.7 million barrels per day, compared with 3.3 million barrels per day in the first two months of this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 1: Metals market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE lead declining—LME lead fell 1.08%, LME nickel fell 0.55%, and SHFE lead fell 0.47%. The rest of the metals all gained. LME tin and SHFE tin surged over 2%, with LME tin up 2.58% and SHFE tin up 2.25%. LME zinc and SHFE zinc rose over 1%, with LME zinc up 1.85% and SHFE zinc up 1.4%. Gains in the remaining metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.25%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.42%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, most prices rose except for stainless steel. Stainless steel gained 0.92%, while iron ore fell 0.27%. Declines in other metals were modest. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.08% and coke fell 0.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.42%, at one point dipping to a low of $3,955.4/oz, while COMEX silver rose 0.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.8% and SHFE silver surged 3.43%. As of 6:44 am July 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [NBS: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China’s economic sentiment rebounds somewhat] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that the June manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprise PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 ppt from May but still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprise PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 ppts, above the threshold; small enterprise PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 ppt, below the threshold. Among the five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, commented on China’s June 2026 PMIs. The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.2%, up 0.1 ppt from May, indicating a modest rebound in non-manufacturing sentiment. The services sector expanded at a faster pace. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 ppt, showing some improvement. By sector, business activity indexes for telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all in the high-expansion territory above 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume. Air transport and real estate continued to operate below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index stood at 56.0%, up 0.6 ppt from May, reflecting improved corporate expectations for market development. Construction activity showed some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 ppt, edging up slightly. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, remaining in expansion. [MIIT and eight other departments: Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and eight other departments issued a notice on the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Industrial Internet.” It proposes to enhance computing support. Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities. Explore building an industrial computing network system, strengthen the dynamic coordination of multi-level computing capabilities across end, edge, and cloud, and meet the computing, network, storage, and usage needs of various entities’ business development. Rely on the integrated computing network to strengthen computing interconnectivity, improve the matching supply of intelligent and edge computing power, enhance the ability to process and deeply refine massive heterogeneous data at high speed, and deeply empower scenarios such as industrial large-model training and real-time interaction in the industrial metaverse. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 101.17. Federal funds rate futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed could start raising rates as soon as July. This previously unthinkable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at the July policy meeting remains low, with interest-rate swaps currently pricing in about 9 basis points of tightening, implying roughly a 36% chance of a 25bp hike. Nonetheless, that probability has risen markedly; before new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh shifted his focus to price stability, the odds were nearly zero. (From Wallstreetcn app) On the data front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings edged up in May, but the pace of new hires pulled back. Data showed that at the end of May, total job openings across the US rose by 9,000 from the prior month to 7.594 million, above economists’ forecast of 7.3 million. The April figure was revised down from an initially reported 7.618 million to 7.585 million. The increase in openings was mainly concentrated in professional and business services and very small businesses with fewer than ten employees. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. Hiring declined by 45,000 to 5.17 million, with the hiring rate stable at 3.3%. US job gains have accelerated sharply for three straight months, and the market had been optimistic that the labor market was returning to a recovery path after a soft patch in 2025. However, the strong payroll gains have been largely driven by a simultaneous decline in both layoffs and quits, rather than by a pickup in hiring by businesses. (Jin10 Data) HSBC said that a sharp rally in the US dollar could be one of the biggest “pain trades” in the second half of this year. The bank expects the dollar to strengthen gradually in the first half of 2027, and warned that if the Fed signals a stronger readiness to tighten policy than the market expects, and if geopolitical tensions flare up again, the dollar could see an “explosive” rally. Risks have increased since the Fed’s June meeting, when policymakers focused on inflation and offered little forward guidance. That shifted market attention back to interest-rate differentials and helped the dollar strengthen against major currencies over the past two weeks. “A stronger dollar will certainly cause pain, but we think the ‘pain trade’ in FX will be an explosive dollar rally,” analysts including Paul Mackel wrote in a June 29 note. (Bloomberg) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 33.7%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.1%, a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 50.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike at 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro side: Today will see the release of China’s June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, final reading of US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending m/m, UK June Nationwide house price index m/m, final UK June manufacturing PMI, Switzerland May real retail sales y/y, final French June manufacturing PMI, final German June manufacturing PMI, final Eurozone June manufacturing PMI, preliminary Eurozone June CPI y/y, and preliminary Eurozone June CPI m/m. In addition, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will speak at the “Policy Panel” event at the ECB Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Tech Summit will be held July 1-4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is noteworthy that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchange is closed for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Southbound and Northbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada is closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices fell in both markets, with US oil down 1.02% and Brent down 0.65%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its monthly data released Tuesday that US crude oil production climbed to a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, driven by the Iran war boosting oil prices and producers ramping up output. EIA data showed that output increased by 216,000 bpd in April, with New Mexico hitting a record 2.37 million bpd. Texas crude production edged up 36,000 bpd to 5.83 million bpd, the highest since last November. Texas and New Mexico share the Permian Basin, which accounts for about half of total US crude output. The third-largest producing state, North Dakota, saw output rise to 1.13 million bpd, also the highest since last November. (From Wallstreetcn app) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels, after a 765,000-barrel draw the prior week. API Cushing crude inventories rose by 503,000 barrels, compared with a draw of 982,000 barrels the previous week. API gasoline inventories fell by 2.106 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.238 million barrels the prior week), while distillate inventories rose by 2.922 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.447 million barrels the prior week). (From Wallstreetcn app) Russia’s crude oil exports are surging to record highs, causing a buildup of crude at sea, while the price of crude, Moscow’s main source of revenue, is falling sharply. According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia’s average daily seaborne crude exports rose to 4.13 million barrels in the four weeks through June 28. That is the highest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022; before the conflict, a large portion of Russian oil was sent to Western Europe via pipelines. The export surge means Russian oil inventories at sea have increased by about a third since mid-April lows, and cargoes are starting to accumulate off the coast of Egypt and Singapore, suggesting Moscow may face increasing difficulty in placing all its volumes. The rise in exports comes as Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries, which may force crude that cannot be processed domestically to be exported. (Jin10 Data APP)

At the Rio de Janeiro Energy Summit on June 25, panelists stated that without direct government support, Brazil will not advance its critical minerals sector, given the country's lack of infrastructure, technology, and long‑term investment. Analysts noted that minerals have become a strategic asset essential for ensuring technological leadership and energy security, and should no longer be viewed merely as extractive commodities. They added that a sound legal and regulatory framework is key to providing predictability and certainty for long‑term investment in the industry. Marcos Mesquita, Strategic Vice President of LPG distributor Copa Energia, said the mining sector should focus on diversifying extraction operations into multiple minerals and their by‑products to increase revenue. Mesquita added that Brazil should not emulate China, as it can leverage its abundant water resources and dominant renewable energy generation to build a more sustainable industry platform.