[SMM Tin Morning Update: Mild PPI Lowered the Probability of a September Rate Hike to 32%; 430,000 Round Number Closed, Breaking Through for the First Time This Week]

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Solidly Advancing Carbon Peaking Actions] The main venue event for National Ecology Day 2026 was held yesterday in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Zhou Haibing, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that we must solidly advance carbon peaking actions, carry out comprehensive evaluation and assessment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in a scientific manner, accelerate adjustments and optimization of the industrial structure, energy structure, and transportation structure, and ensure the carbon peaking target is achieved on schedule. It is understood that the 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical and decisive phase for achieving the carbon peaking target. The “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peaking Action Plan” has laid out several major initiatives, including interprovincial power mutual support, clean substitution for coal consumption, energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industry, low-carbon and zero-carbon heating and cooling and green lighting, construction of zero-carbon transport corridors, and enhancement of foundational capabilities for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The overall targets are: by 2030, China’s CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17 compared with 2025, the share of non-fossil energy in energy consumption will reach 25, and the carbon peaking target will be achieved on schedule. 02 ★★ [In the Next 10 Days, South China May See the Most Precipitation; Next Week, the High-Temperature Zone in Jiangnan and South China Will Expand] As the remnant vortex of “White Dolphin” moves eastward into the sea, rainfall in east China and other areas will gradually weaken. However, the rain will not exit the stage; the remnant vortex will later move northward, leading to some strengthening of rainfall in the eastern part of north-east China. Tomorrow and the day after, there will be significant rainfall in eastern Liaoning, eastern Jilin, and eastern Heilongjiang. Next week, the subtropical high will strengthen again and extend westward, and China’s distribution of rain and heat will once again be controlled by it—South China on the southern side of the subtropical high will see heavy rainfall under the influence of a monsoon trough or low pressure; from Jiangnan to Huanghuai under the control of the subtropical high, hot and muggy weather will develop and increase in succession. Over the next 10 days, South China may be the area with the most precipitation in China. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory’s medium-term forecast, over the next 10 days, cumulative precipitation in Jiangnan, South China, south-west China, and the eastern and northern parts of north-east China and other areas will be 50–90 mm; in parts of the western Sichuan Basin, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Yunnan, it will be 100–150 mm, with localized areas along the southern coastal areas of South China exceeding 250 mm. In most of the above areas, precipitation will be 50% to 100% higher than the climatological average for the same period, and in some areas more than double. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [H1 Coal Supply Was Adequate; Energy Use Is Guaranteed for the Summer Peak] According to information from the China Coal Industry Association, in H1 this year, the national daily average production of raw coal by industrial enterprises above designated size reached 13.07 million mt, the second-highest level for the same period in history, and coal has continued to play its stabilizing role as the main energy source. At present, China has entered the peak period of energy use for summer peak-load support. Temperatures in most regions nationwide were higher than the average for the same period in normal years, and some regions experienced intermittent high-temperature heat waves. To proactively respond to extreme weather and ensure coal supply for summer peak-load support, the coal industry fully leveraged the advantages of large modern coal mines and intelligent coal mines, and nationwide coal production and supply remained stable and orderly. Experts said that in H2, China’s macro economy will continue to maintain steady and relatively rapid growth; “AI+” application scenarios will become increasingly widespread; energy use for big data and computing power will continue to increase rapidly, boosting sustained growth in energy consumption demand. Coal will still be the mainstay and an important backstop force for the secure and stable supply of energy nationwide. 02 ★★ [First-Time Homebuyers in Seoul, South Korea Hit a New High in More Than Four Years] A report showed that the number of first-time homebuyers in Seoul, South Korea reached a new high in four years and eight months. According to data released on the 16th by the Supreme Court of South Korea’s Real Estate Registration Information Plaza, a total of 7,552 homebuyers in Seoul completed ownership transfer registration for their first home (multi-family housing) last month. This was the highest level in four years and eight months since the heated housing market period in November 2021 (7,886 people). 03 ★★ [Minor Adjustment to Home-Swap Purchase Policies for Non-Shanghai Registered Residents and Overseas Individuals? Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center Hotline Responds] In response to market reports that Shanghai had updated the implementation guidelines related to home-swap purchases, on August 15, a reporter called the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center hotline “962269” for inquiries. Regarding home-swap purchases by residents without Shanghai household registration, hotline staff said that no new policy had been introduced. According to the hotline staff, a non-Shanghai registered resident household that sells its only property may swap for one home anywhere in the city; the property owner before and after the transaction must remain the same, and no social insurance or individual income tax payment certificates are required. This guideline has been implemented since May 28, 2024. For multiple homes, when a non-Shanghai registered resident household or an adult single person sells part of the properties under their name (i.e., having two or more homes under their name) and purchases a home again, the number and location of the homes purchased must match those of the homes sold—if a home outside the Outer Ring Road is sold, the purchase can only be made outside the Outer Ring Road; if a home inside the Outer Ring Road is sold, the purchase can only be made inside the Outer Ring Road, and submission of social insurance or individual income tax payment certificates is exempted. This guideline has been implemented since February 26, 2026. Regarding home-swap purchases by overseas individuals, hotline staff said that after an overseas individual sells all properties under their name in Shanghai, they may swap and purchase one home in the city, exempt from submitting a foreigner residence permit (work category), a local labor contract continuously valid for one year prior to the home purchase date, and social insurance and individual income tax payment certificates for one continuous year prior to the home purchase date, but they must still sign a self-occupancy commitment letter for overseas individuals purchasing a home. This methodology took effect on July 29, 2026. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [US Fed Has a 67.5% Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in September] According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 67.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp rate hike was 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 53.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp rate hike was 39.8% and that of a cumulative 50-bp rate hike was 6.8%. ⭕ [Iran Says It Has Reached an Agreement With Oman on a Passage Plan for the Strait of Hormuz] Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on August 15 local time that, despite US obstruction, talks between Iran and Oman were still progressing actively, and the two sides had reached an agreement on a passage plan for the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. ⭕ [PBOC: Broad Money (M2) Balance at Month-End July Was 35.551 Trillion Yuan, Up 7.7% YoY] PBOC data showed that at month-end July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. Net cash injection in the first seven months was 725.5 billion yuan. ⭕[Ministry of Emergency Management Deploys 13 Drainage Teams to Carry Out Drainage Operations in Zhoukou, Henan] To assist with drainage work in the urban area of Zhoukou, Henan, the Ministry of Emergency Management deployed a total of 13 drainage forces from Henan, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Hunan, and other places, including the Ministry of Emergency Management’s Engineering Emergency Rescue Center for Natural Disasters (China Aneng), eight national work-safety emergency rescue drainage forces, the Shaanxi mobile drainage team, as well as XCMG Group, Jiaozuo Huayu, Hunan Diwo, and others, with a total drainage capacity of about 220,000 m³/hour, rushing urgently to Zhoukou, Henan. All of the above rescue forces arrived by 9:00 a.m. on the 16th and were put into drainage operations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that the US has violated the Iran-US memorandum of understanding and that hostilities have resumed. He said that the so-called “extension of the ceasefire agreement” does not exist, that Iran has no intention of extending the ceasefire agreement with the US side, and that it has not yet decided whether to resume negotiations with the US. He also stressed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can only be restored if the US meets the relevant conditions. In addition, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a “shipping map,” which is part of a broader agreement to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

This week nickel prices exhibited a weak pattern overall, with the price center continuing to shift lower. At the start of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) edged up, supported by an unexpectedly weak US July nonfarm payrolls report and a softer US dollar index. Subsequently, however, expectations of looser Indonesian supply built, and SHFE nickel ground lower for four consecutive trading days, with losses accelerating on Friday. The contract closed at about 127,040 yuan/mt, down 1.29% on the day, after touching an intraweek low of 126,720 yuan/mt; it fell about 2.6% WoW. The LME nickel 3M contract weakened in tandem, with the latest close at $16,675/mt, down about 1.8% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price this week was 129,110 yuan/mt, down 2,250 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan refined nickel premiums held steady in the range of 1,250-1,300 yuan/mt. Mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums/discounts were between -200 and 500 yuan/mt, with discounts narrowing somewhat during the week. Spot market trading recovered slightly amid the continued decline in futures this week, and downstream users’ willingness to restock improved from previous levels. On the macro front, cooling US inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials offset each other this week. US July unadjusted CPI rose 3.4% YoY and core CPI rose 2.5% YoY, both in line with market expectations, weakening investor expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. However, Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the Fed may need to raise rates several times to bring inflation back to its 2% target, and the US dollar index briefly touched a two-week high, weighing on nonferrous metal valuations. On the geopolitical front, US-Iran tensions flared up again—US forces opened fire in the Gulf of Oman on a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade against Iran. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen as long as the US does not accept its terms. However, with the concentrated arrival of sulfur cargoes, production schedules at some Indonesian HPAL projects recovered, easing the earlier marginal pressure from tight sulfur supply. On the domestic front, China’s July CPI rose 0.5% YoY and core CPI rose 0.9% YoY, while overall CPI fell 0.1% MoM. The central bank released its Q2 2026 monetary policy implementation report, stressing that it would continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies in a timely manner, and strengthen countercyclical adjustment. On the inventory front, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory this week was about 1,400 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory was about 134,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 300 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently in a weak window where expectations of looser supply, wavering macro sentiment, and high inventories are intertwined. On the downside, losses on electrodeposited nickel production provide cost support, while the upside is capped by off-season demand and inventories. Prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade mainly within 124,000-130,000 yuan/mt next week.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 10–14, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures fell for a fourth straight week, settling at RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) on August 14.