July 10, 2026 Although the price of gold has regained the $4,100-per-ounce mark, analysts at Metals Focus say the precious metal is set to undergo a summer consolidation for the time being. However, this phase offers promising prospects: Later in the year, strong fundamental drivers are likely to push the price significantly higher again. Interest rate fears and a seasonal lull are dampening short-term momentum Currently, the market is primarily on edge due to U.S. monetary policy. New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the immense investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence, are keeping inflation stubbornly high. This is fueling market concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again this year. For gold, which generates no current income, rising opportunity costs represent a strong headwind and cap any rapid upward breakout. Compounding this is the typical seasonal weakness. July and August are traditionally considered slow months for physical demand. The already high price level has recently caused a noticeable slowdown in jewelry consumption and general retail interest. Even though there are initial, tentative signs of recovery in key Asian markets such as China and India, the typically strong demand phase there will not begin until late summer at the earliest. The current trading range is therefore likely to persist throughout the summer months. Structural drivers remain intact: Comeback expected in the fall Despite these short-term hurdles, experts at Metals Focus do not see the broader bull market as being in any danger. A breakout from the sideways trend will become more likely once the market’s interest rate speculation cools down. There are strong indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ultimately leave key interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026. To avoid an economic slowdown or even a recession, policymakers are likely to grudgingly tolerate moderate inflation above their target, according to the analysts. As soon as the market prices in this easing of monetary policy—expected sometime during the third quarter—the gold price will once again have room to rise. The structural pillars underpinning the recent record-breaking rally remain unshaken, according to Metals Focus. Persistent geopolitical risks—particularly given Iran’s focus on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz—continue to warrant high risk premiums. Coupled with the mounting uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, the ambitious valuations in the stock markets, and concerns about the U.S. dollar, the fundamentals for the precious metal remain extremely robust. Those who weather the current summer lull will be well-positioned: In the medium term, gold remains the preferred safe haven and an essential component of portfolio diversification, the report concludes. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-a-summer-breather-before-the-next-rally

SMM, July 14: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and domestic markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the decline with a drop of 2.47%, while LME lead, LME zinc, and SHFE tin all fell over 1%—LME lead (-1.32%), LME zinc (-1.23%), and SHFE tin (-1.27%)—with the rest of the metals seeing relatively small changes. Alumina main contract edged up 0.15%, while cast aluminum main contract edged down 0.22%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell, with only iron ore and stainless steel rising—stainless steel gained 1.85% and iron ore rose 0.47%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.04% and coke dropped 1.04%. In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold fell 2.55%, briefly dipping below the $4,000/oz psychological level again during the session, while COMEX silver dropped 3.63%. In China, SHFE gold fell 2.12% and SHFE silver declined 2.84%, mainly as escalating Middle East tensions fueled rate-hike expectations. As of 6:44 a.m. July 14, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [State Council: Target total retail sales of consumer goods to reach around 60 trillion yuan by 2030] The State Council approved the “Expanding Consumption” 15th Five-Year Plan, aiming for the consumer market to keep expanding in scale by 2030, with the household consumption rate rising notably and total consumption of goods and services growing rapidly; total retail sales of consumer goods are to reach around 60 trillion yuan, providing a stronger boost to economic growth. The consumption structure will be further optimized, with the share of per capita service consumption expenditure in per capita consumption expenditure steadily increasing, development-oriented and improvement-oriented consumption continuing to grow, digital consumption scale constantly expanding, and urban-rural, regional, and group consumption gaps gradually narrowing. Consumption capacity will keep improving, high-quality full employment will make new progress, household income will grow in step with the economy, the social security system will be more optimized and sustainable, and consumers will have stronger spending power, more stable expectations, and greater confidence. [State Council: Launch access and on-road pilot programs for intelligent connected vehicles] The State Council approved the “Expanding Consumption” 15th Five-Year Plan, which notes that high-quality development of digital consumption will be promoted, “AI + consumption” will be deepened, and a digital consumption upgrade campaign will be implemented. The plan calls for expanding digital product consumption, increasing effective supply of new-generation intelligent end-use products such as AI phones and computers, smart wearables, intelligent robots, and desktop 3D printing equipment, accelerating R&D and interconnection of smart security and video care systems, and launching access and on-road pilot programs for intelligent connected vehicles. Digital service consumption will be upgraded by leveraging AI, virtual reality, and other technologies to empower lifestyle services, scenic spots, and neighborhoods, promoting integrated applications of AI with education, healthcare, culture, tourism, sports, and other sectors, and expanding agent application scenarios. Digital content consumption will be innovated by launching more high-quality digital cultural and museum products, strengthening the supply of ultra-high-definition radio, TV, and online audio-visual content, and developing new film formats such as virtual reality movies and LED digital cinemas. US Dollar: The US dollar index gained 0.35% overnight to 101.31, as Fed Governor Waller sent hawkish signals, while the market awaited the US CPI data and remarks by Warsh later today. Fed Governor Waller said on Monday that if future data show inflation remains well above the 2% target, the Fed may need to raise rates “in the near term.” He described current monetary policy as being at a “crossroads,” adding that the direction will be determined by new information such as the CPI report due Tuesday, and that if data take an unfavorable turn, the Fed is at a stage where it must not be “complacent.” Waller stated: “At current policy levels, inflation could still gradually return to the 2% target. But I am equally concerned about the alternative scenario that data in the coming weeks will show inflation staying elevated or even rising further, which would require tighter policy in the near term.” He specifically noted he worries that recent inflation reports suggest price pressures appear to be broadening across the economy, extending beyond the effects of last year’s tariff hikes or recent energy cost increases, possibly reflecting broader, systemic inflation that would demand tighter monetary policy. Waller said, “If core inflation comes in hot again this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening in the near term. We need to see sustained declines in inflation data over several months to believe that inflation is moving in the right direction.” (Jin10 Data App) Market pricing showed that expectations for at least one rate hike by September had been almost fully priced in, and two hikes by end-March next year had been fully priced. Earlier, Trump announced on social media that the US had reinstated a blockade on Iran and planned to impose a 20% fee on any cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 58.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike stood at 41.7%. For September, the probability of rates staying on hold was 24.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike 51.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 23.9%. (Jin10 Data App) Macro Side: Today, data releases will include China’s June trade balance, June import/export y/y growth rates, the US June unadjusted CPI y/y, June seasonally adjusted CPI m/m, June seasonally adjusted core CPI m/m, June unadjusted core CPI y/y, June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended June 27. Crude Oil: At the overnight close, both benchmarks surged sharply—WTI crude jumped 9.23% and Brent crude soared 9.62%, as the US-Iran geopolitical conflict escalated after Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering supply disruption fears. According to CCTV News, Trump said on his social media platform on Monday that the US will impose a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, with related procedures and deployment to begin immediately. During the US stock market afternoon session, US Central Command confirmed that US forces will restart the maritime blockade on Iran starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday (4:00 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday), and international crude gains briefly widened to nearly 10%. Goldman Sachs’s base case forecasts Brent to move sideways in a $75–85 range, based on the logic that Iran effectively controls transit while the US tacitly accepts this reality, with traffic gradually resuming. A move above $100 would require direct strikes on regional energy infrastructure—such as an offshore platform hit over the weekend—or a simultaneous disruption of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Chris Hussey of Goldman Sachs added a long-term perspective, projecting that by 2028 over half of the crude oil originally shipped through the Strait of Hormuz will find alternative pipeline routes, noting that history shows a single-country pipeline in the Middle East can be built in as little as two and a half years, with seven pipelines already under construction. (Wallstreetcn) Russia’s June crude output fell to the lowest level in at least two and a half years, as Ukraine attacked Russian oil infrastructure on an almost daily basis. According to the OPEC monthly report, Russian producers pumped 8.928 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in June. These figures underscore the enormous pressure on Russia’s oil sector: refiners were forced to cut runs because of Ukrainian drone strikes, leaving Russia to export large volumes of crude. OPEC data based on secondary sources showed that Russia’s June output was 834,000 bpd below its OPEC+ target and 61,000 bpd below the slightly revised May figure. (From the Wallstreetcn App)

Against the backdrop of aluminum price premiums being given back and heightened expectations of decline, end-users' willingness to restock will remain suppressed. Industry profit margins are expected to stay low, and competition among enterprises will evolve deeply from "scale expansion" to "cost control and structural optimization."

July 6, 2026 Despite current headwinds from high U.S. yields and a strong dollar, HSBC believes the gold price still has further upside potential through the end of 2026. While the precious metal is currently trading within a narrow range in the short term—as higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of this non-interest-bearing asset—analysts remain extremely bullish on the long-term investment case. Short-Term Pressure: Raising Liquidity Rather Than a Safe Haven During the recent geopolitical crises in the Middle East and amid rising oil prices, gold behaved less like a traditional safe haven and, at times, moved in tandem with the stock market. In an environment marked by inflation concerns and falling stock markets, investors primarily used the precious metal as a highly liquid hedge. To quickly generate cash during tense market phases or to meet impending margin calls on other investments, gold positions were aggressively sold off. This development was accompanied by previously massively overextended positioning in the futures market. Driven in part by inexperienced speculators, a noticeable correction followed the rapid surge to around $5,400 per ounce at the end of January, as these often leveraged positions had to be hastily unwound. Also noteworthy for commodity investors is the profoundly altered market dynamic: The historical correlation between gold and oil, which was still strongly positive in the 1970s and 1980s, has since decoupled dramatically. Today, this correlation has weakened to a value of around 0.15 or even into negative territory, posing entirely new challenges for diversification in modern portfolios. Structural demand from Asia and ETF inflows provide support The gold price owes its solid foundation to the ongoing need for diversification among institutional investors. Global de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties, along with steady ETF inflows, are driving demand, particularly in Asia. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, this is reflected in a significant price premium of around 20 U.S. dollars. The focus here is less on jewelry or coins and more on large-format bars for the institutional sector. Regulatory changes in China and India now allow large local insurers and asset managers to strategically build up gold positions. This robust demand is complemented by steady purchases by central banks, as underscored by the People’s Bank of China ’s recent acquisitions of an additional 8.1 metric tons. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-for-2026-why-the-precious-metal-holds-huge-potential-despite-headwinds

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Fundamentals Still Supportive, LME Zinc Center Shifts Higher] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,545/mt. In early trading, it briefly dipped to a low of $3,535/mt, then bulls added positions and LME zinc drifted higher throughout the session, touching a high of $3,594/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed higher at $3,579/mt, up $31/mt, a 0.87% gain. Trading volume increased to 13,260 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,268 lots to 269,000 lots.

02 July 2026 Precious metals ended a record FY25/26 on a soft footing, with the USD gold price falling by close to 15% between March and June, its worst quarterly performance in more than a decade. This price fall—which began at the end of January—was caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar, a sharp rise in bond yields, a complete 180 from the market as it relates to interest rate expectations (with rate hikes in the United States now priced in), liquidity needs caused by the U.S.-Iran war, and a washout of the extreme bullishness and speculation that had crept into the gold and silver market earlier this year. There was also a huge surge in the stock market between March and early June (the S&P 500 was up over 20% during this period) as euphoria took over any tech- or AI-related trades. In the short-term at least, this diminished the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. While the pullback has been painful for some, it was certainly not unexpected—and was in many ways necessary, as long-term bull markets in any asset classes do require periodic consolidations. Importantly, the pullback has likely done its worst in terms of performance and price falls. It has also totally reset sentiment in the precious metal market, with euphoria replaced by fear and/or apathy—typically the kind of market conditions that reward buyers. It is also worth pointing out that despite the sell-off over the past five months, both gold and silver ended the financial year delivering strong gains for Australian investors, with the AUD gold price rising by 16%, while silver was up by over 50%. Take a longer-term view and the results are even more impressive, with the gold price up by more than 100% since June 2023. Silver has rallied by close to 150% over the same period, with the two precious metals strongly outperforming traditional assets over this period. The strong rally over the past three years has been driven by multiple factors, including: Strong Central Bank Buying : Central banks bought 3,000 tonnes of gold between 2003 and 2025, with a further 243 tonnes of buying in Q1 2026. Surveys of central bankers suggest holdings will continue to grow, with gold set to play a more important role as a reserve asset in the decade ahead. ETF Inflows in 2025: ETF holders were substantial net sellers between 2021 and 2024, with net sales each year and a total of 544 tonnes coming out of these products in that period. The tide turned from late 2024 onward, with almost 1,000 tonnes of inflows seen in the last 18 months. Surge in Demand for Retail Bars and Coins : Global bar and coin demand was 42% higher year-on-year in Q1 2026, while buying from this segment of the market topped 1,400 tonnes in 2025 (up 16% on 2024). A longer-term view is even more eye-opening, with gold bar and coin buying from 2023-2025 inclusive topping 3,800 tonnes (more than 30% of all mine output in that period). That level of buying is 13% higher than we saw in the three-year window from 2020-2022 inclusive, a period that included the Covid-19 pandemic. Source: World Gold Council Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends When you factor in dollar-based spending on bars and coins—with gold prices substantially higher in the 2023-2026 window vs the 2020-2023 window—the result is even more impressive. Outlook For 2026/27 Financial Year ABC Bullion remains optimistic on the outlook for bullion this year, with the huge pullback that we have seen in the last five months setting a base from which the long-term bull market can resume. The challenges posed by overvaluation assets remain unresolved, with the S&P 500 starting this new financial year trading above 40-times cyclically adjusted earnings. Inflation remains at problematic levels, with no easy way to use interest rates to bring it down, given the debt and deficit levels seen across the developed world, headlined by the United States, which will soon clock over USD $40 trillion in debt. I can personally remember when that number was closer to USD $10 trillion when the Global Financial Crisis hit. Heightened geopolitical conflict will be with us for the foreseeable future, creating permanent uncertainty as it relates to energy security and the potential for commodity price shocks. Last but not least, Western investors remain very lightly exposed to genuine safe-haven assets that can help protect their portfolio and provide a source of growth during otherwise challenging periods. Government bonds—which are likely to be a source of return-free risk, rather than risk-free return—will likely continue to drag on investor portfolios, with physical gold the only asset that has the market size, the liquidity and the risk/return profile to fill that gap. With a textbook correction now played out, sentiment readings that have historically been followed by an average 16% gain in the year that followed, and a 100% win-rate (data thanks to Sentiment Trader ), now is a great time to be looking to add more bullion to a portfolio. Until next time. Source： https://www.abcbullion.com/insights/market-updates/gold-set-for-a-strong-rally-as-new-financial-year-begins