The EU Commission's latest ETS reform proposal (COM(2026) 616), presented as a competitiveness measure, adds further layers of funds, investment conditions, and reporting obligations on top of already complex ETS and CBAM rules without meaningful simplification. Free allocation for CBAM sectors is extended to 2038, while historic certificate surpluses accumulated by the steel industry remain entirely untouched — allowing European producers to meet current obligations with previously free-allocated certificates while importers must provide upfront CBAM capital. SMEs appear in funding programs but receive no exemptions or reserved quotas. The case of Saarstahl illustrates the asymmetry: the company benefits simultaneously from historic ETS surpluses, extended free allocation, decarbonisation subsidies, CBAM border protection, and steel tariffs, with over half of its EUR 4.6 billion hydrogen investment publicly funded. Meanwhile, Germany's 2026 industrial electricity price of around 16.7 cents/kWh has returned to 2014 levels, undermining the steel industry's persistent claims that energy costs are the sector's primary burden.

Japan plans to impose provisional anti-dumping duties from July on nickel-based cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from Chinese Taiwan, Chinese Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs stated on June 22 that overall export damage is limited: China Steel Corporation does not produce the investigated products; leading exporter Yusco secured the lowest rate of 3.86%, preserving its competitive position; and Walsin Lihwa primarily exports non-investigated products to Japan. Domestic mills note that Japan represents a minor share of Chinese Taiwan's total stainless steel exports. Government officials have pledged to maintain dialogue with Japanese counterparts and support local industries in adopting AI and low-carbon technologies.

Marking the one-year anniversary of the US imposing a 50% Section 232 tariff on Canadian steel, the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) is urging the removal of the measure ahead of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review period beginning July 1, 2026. Prior to the trade conflict, Canada was the largest supplier of steel to the US, but shipments have plummeted by 60% in 2025 as a result of the tariffs. With Canada having already adopted strict trade policies to block global overcapacity from China, the CSPA argues the tariffs are unjustified and disruptive to the integrated North American supply chain, pushing for a collaborative "Fortress North America" approach instead.

Quebec aluminum smelters are continuing to operate at around 95% capacity with no reported layoffs despite higher US import tariffs. According to the Aluminum Association of Canada, the Trump administration’s decision to raise aluminum and steel tariffs from 25% to 50% initially resulted in losses of approximately USD600 million for Quebec producers after US customers resisted absorbing the additional costs. However, market conditions have since stabilized as aluminum originally destined for Europe was redirected to the US market to benefit from higher prices. Industry participants noted that global aluminum prices continue to rise, with further upside risks linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran crisis.

【SMM Steel】Mexico has formally requested the elimination of Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs during USMCA review talks. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated the 50% rate is “unacceptable and lacks justification” following May 27-29 discussions with USTR. Mexico also advocates a regional approach for the auto industry given North America's deep production integration and existing rules of origin. Additional negotiation rounds are scheduled for June and July. Mexico emphasizes that removing trade barriers is essential to restore North American manufacturing competitiveness against Asian markets.

The Canadian government has extended its critical metal tariff measures for one year, valid until June 27, 2027, to protect domestic producers from global excess capacity. Under the extended policy, non-CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) steel imports exceeding set quotas will face a steep 50% tariff. The tariff-rate quota limits remain strictly capped at 20% of 2024 import volumes for non-free trade agreement (FTA) partners and 75% for FTA partners, while the US and Mexico maintain their exemptions. By locking in these stringent quota limits, Canada aims to prevent trade diversion and provide long-term predictability for local steel operations. However, this extension could constrain supply availability for Canadian downstream manufacturers reliant on offshore steel, potentially driving up domestic premium prices in the medium term.