[SMM Analysis] Steel Billet Sees Notable YoY Growth, UAE's Decline Hits a New Low By product: Steel billet continued to achieve high growth, while HRC remained the product with the largest decline. In January-May 2026, China's cumulative steel billet exports reached 6.76 million mt (compared with 4.72 million mt in the same period last year), a substantial increase of 2.04 million mt, with growth momentum still strong. This was mainly due to periodic supply-demand mismatch in overseas supply chains and the subsequent impact of global buyers' active inquiries to China, especially the marginal support from purchasing sentiment in markets like Southeast Asia. In contrast, HRC exports plummeted from 10.51 million mt in the same period last year to 7.21 million mt, a decrease of 3.3 million mt, closely related to the implementation of anti-dumping policies on HRC outside China and the high base effect. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs By country: Singapore replaced Djibouti as the top contributor to growth. Its product breakdown pie chart clearly shows that bars (61%) and wire rod (12%) formed the dominant products, together accounting for 73%. As a global shipping and trade settlement hub, Singapore's significant growth was mainly due to concentrated procurement and trade settlement by ASEAN and China-invested construction projects there, providing strong support for China's exports of bars, wire rod, and related infrastructure supporting products. On the decline list, the UAE (down 1.18 million mt), Brazil (down 850,000 mt), Vietnam (down 780,000 mt), and Saudi Arabia (down 570,000 mt) were the main losers, mainly affected by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and the direct impact of trade barrier policies in some regions. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Outlook According to SMM's latest data on steel export orders, the US-Iran conflict remains volatile in the short term, and amid uncertainty, Middle Eastern buyers will be relatively cautious in procurement. China's export price advantage over other markets continues to narrow, and the overall export order volume is unlikely to improve significantly. However, considering the noticeable decline in sheets & plates transactions last week, some recovery is expected in the short term. Data Source: SMM Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[Steel Billet Price Adjustment] On July 20, Tangshan Qian'an Songting Steel lowered its ordinary square billet price by 10 yuan/mt, to an ex-works price of 2,980 yuan/mt tax inclusive. (yuan/mt) [SMM Steel]

China Steel Market: [Sheets & Plates] HRC export deals at $488-494, stable DoD; buyers outside China anticipate further declines, leaning towards delayed procurement HRC and other sheet & plate export prices were stable DoD today, with HRC export deal prices at $488-494/mt. Markets outside China believed there was still potential for price declines, and even with orders in hand, they tended to delay procurement and adopt a wait-and-see sentiment, limiting the actual release of deals. [Steel Billet] Billet export FOB remained stable; Jiangyin Port at $458-460; mills held prices firm, deal resistance was significant Steel billet export FOB prices remained stable today, with quotations at Jiangyin Port at $458-460/mt. China steel mills showed a strong intention to hold prices firm, while rigid demand in importing countries outside China was insufficient, and buyer bids were generally below the psychological price levels of mills. Spot cargo deals faced significant resistance, and actual transactions were limited. [Rebar] Rebar exports remained stable temporarily; deals at $480-485; buyers pushed for lower prices and stayed on the sidelines, trading was sluggish Rebar export prices were stable MoM today, with deals at $480-485/mt. Some buyers had a strong desire to bargain down prices and a heavy wait-and-see sentiment; domestic sellers were unwilling to sell cheaply due to profitability considerations, resulting in no significant release of deals. International Steel Market: [India] Mumbai HRC price dropped ~$3 WoW to $602; monsoon dampens demand Mumbai HRC prices dropped approximately $3/mt WoW to $602/mt EXW, with market deals around $571-611/mt. Monsoon weather suppressed construction and infrastructure demand, resulting in weak spot procurement and restocking willingness. Competition among low-priced resources intensified, and prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. [Black Sea/CIS] Black Sea billet trading was sluggish with stable quotes; Russian mills advanced Q4 production schedules to capture EU duty-free quotas Trading in the Black Sea billet market was sluggish, with FOB quotations holding firm, and offers to Turkey at approximately $495-500/mt CFR. The procurement pace of buyers slowed down due to holidays and weak demand. Some Russian steel mills advanced their production schedules to capture Q4 duty-free quotas for the EU. [Indonesia] Indonesian SAE1008 wire rod exports at $485, below China; off-season in Southeast Asia kept deals sluggish Indonesian SAE1008 wire rod export offers held at $485/mt FOB, notably lower than the similar grade from China at approximately $509/mt FOB. Southeast Asia was in its seasonal off-season, limiting buyers' restocking willingness; although the low prices were competitive, actual deals remained sluggish. [Brazil/Vietnam] Brazil HRC import offers fell to $600-610; Vietnam cut prices to secure orders, transactions recorded at about 20,000 mt Brazilian HRC import offers fell to $600-610/mt CFR, with combined sheet & plate import deals of about 20,000 mt recorded recently. Vietnam, as a core supplier, is forced to proactively lower its quotations to stimulate order intake in the face of low-price impacts from Indonesia and India; Brazil's strict import quotas and domestic credit tightening, meanwhile, are curbing restocking activity.

Saudi Arabia’s Al Yamamah Steel Industries Co. announced that its subsidiary, Al Yamamah for Reinforcing Steel Bars, has signed a contract worth 270 million Saudi riyals ($72 million) with a European specialized company for the manufacture, supply, and installation of equipment for its steel billet production plant. The contract was signed on July 14 and spans two and a half years, with its financial impact expected to materialize in H2 2028. This equipment contract is part of Al Yamamah’s steel billet production project, aimed at strengthening backward integration and securing the raw material supply needed for its long product manufacturing. Al Yamamah Steel specializes in producing and selling a variety of products, including welded pipes, sheets & plates, rebar, and three-dimensional space structures, primarily serving the construction and infrastructure sectors. The company also produces galvanized steel lighting and distribution poles, high-mast structures, and galvanized steel lattice towers for the power and electricity distribution industry. Its production facilities are strategically located in Jeddah, Dammam, and Yanbu.

A Turkish-owned vessel carrying steel billets from India to the United Arab Emirates partially sank near Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz following a reported structural failure. The ship was transporting a total cargo of around 43,000 tonnes, including billets, copper and industrial components, with market estimates suggesting that a significant portion of the billet cargo may be lost or unrecoverable. The vessel reportedly settled in shallow water, but salvage operations are expected to be extremely difficult due to the regional security situation. Insurance claims may also face delays because damage assessments in the conflict-affected area could be challenging. Market participants said the UAE may need to seek alternative short-lead-time billet supplies to cover the disrupted cargo.

[Black Sea] The Black Sea steel billet market saw muted trading activity overall, with offers stabilizing at 480 USD/tonne FOB. Weighed down by holiday disruptions and sluggish demand, the pace of procurement in the Turkish market remained slow this week, with current Black Sea billet offers to Turkey maintained at 495–500 USD/tonne CFR. Notably, to maximize their share of duty-free quotas into the EU, some Russian mills have already proactively launched early production plans.