Cost Support & Fundamental Improvement: Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Continued to Strengthen in April As of April 30, the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,425 points, up 131 points MoM from March 31. In April, SMM's national average spot price for hot-rolled coil was 3,321.78 yuan/mt, up 54.91 yuan/mt MoM (1.68%). HRC prices continued to rise in April, mainly due to relatively stable cost support. Additionally, since the start of April, on one hand, semi-finished products export orders were robust, with some steel mills prioritizing delivery of semi-finished product orders, thereby easing supply pressure in the HRC market; on the other hand, amid the peak season, HRC demand release was strong, driving rapid HRC inventory drawdown and significantly easing supply-demand imbalances. Before mid-May, HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs; in late May, attention turns to export support and the extent of demand pullback Fundamentals, few new maintenance shutdowns have been announced so far, and May HRC production is expected to rebound MoM. However, considering that some steel mills are still actively delivering earlier semi-finished product and HRC export orders, the supply rebound pressure is expected to be manageable. Demand side, the average apparent demand for HRC tracked by SMM in April was 3.3961 million mt, up 7.52% MoM and down 2.19% YoY. Since the start of April, HRC demand climbed rapidly, mainly driven by a simultaneous rebound in export orders and domestic downstream demand in China. For May, historically apparent demand for the five major steel products tends to peak and pull back around Labour Day holiday. Combined with weakening domestic trade demand in some downstream industries, further upside room for May HRC demand is expected to be limited, with overall demand likely edging down slightly MoM from April, and apparent demand levels falling below the same period last year. In the short term, downstream restocking demand expectations remain after the Labour Day holiday, coupled with expectations of a third round of coke price increases, and HRC prices are expected to fluctuate at highs for 1–2 weeks after the holiday. From mid-to-late May, steel demand faces challenges as the traditional peak season winds down, and the steel supply-demand imbalance may widen MoM, limiting further upside room for steel prices. Other aspects, attention should be paid to export order support and the extent of domestic demand pullback.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Surged and Spot Prices Remained Firm, Trading Sluggish as Labour Day Holiday Approached On April 29, SMM reported that SS futures fluctuated upward strongly. Driven by the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel, SS futures maintained a strong trend. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,505 yuan/mt. Spot market side, SS futures continued to fluctuate at highs, boosting stainless steel traders' confidence. Spot offers were generally at relatively high levels, with low-priced resources hard to find. Although the holiday was approaching and rapid price increases made downstream buyers cautious and wait-and-see, with most making just-in-time procurement, trading was slightly sluggish. However, supported by the strong performance of SS futures, spot prices were unlikely to pull back. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and tested higher levels. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,475 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from -5 to 195 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 125 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi offers rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven higher by the surge in SS futures, with spot offers strengthening in tandem and rising to highs not seen since 2023. However, the short-term price increase was relatively rapid and had limited correlation with changes in stainless steel fundamentals, and end-user acceptance remained limited...

The European Commission has officially released the updated steel import quota volumes for the upcoming period starting July 1, 2026. The new regulations maintain the restrictive 15% cap per country for several hot-rolled and cold-rolled categories to prevent market flooding by specific exporters. Total quota volumes remain relatively stable, but adjustments have been made to specific country allocations for wire rods and galvanized sheets. These measures reinforce the EU's protectionist stance, likely keeping domestic steel prices elevated by limiting the availability of cheaper non-EU alternatives amid slow regional demand recovery

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hit New Stage High Again, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Cooled Before Labour Day Holiday SMM, April 28: SS futures showed a strong upward momentum. Driven by the continued strength of SHFE nickel, SS futures rose further, breaking through the high since 2023 again, once reaching 15,670 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,630 yuan/mt. Spot market, as SS futures successively broke stage highs, spot stainless steel prices stayed high. Although the Labour Day holiday was approaching, end-user downstream mostly held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and overall transactions were relatively sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 0 to 200 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils fell by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 100 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi held stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in futures, but end-user wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Actual transactions remained generally weak and were significantly influenced by futures changes, showing phased concentrated transaction patterns, with overall demand not fully matching the price gains. Futures, this week...