[SMM Analysis] Futures Drag Down Stainless Steel Prices, Steel Mill Profits Narrow Significantly This week, finished stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem. Driven by a sharp decline in SS futures, the drop in stainless steel prices widened noticeably, and steel mills’ overall smelting profits narrowed significantly. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, this week’s profit margin was 0.24% based on current raw materials and 0.68% based on inventory raw materials. On the nickel-based raw material side, high-grade NPI ended its previous streak of gains this week and entered a pullback after the rally stalled. During the week, high-grade NPI prices fell under pressure as SHFE nickel futures declined and market sentiment was disrupted by news that Indonesian nickel ore approval quotas may increase. Dragged down by the continued build-up of market pessimism and narrowing profit margins at stainless steel mills, high-grade NPI purchasing activity remained weak and sluggish. As of Friday this week, the delivered duty-paid price in China for 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI fell by 2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136 yuan/nickel unit. This week, stainless steel scrap prices held steady for the time being, but the market already showed clear signs of pressure. Affected by falling futures and lower finished steel prices, market pessimism continued to intensify. The weak downward trend in high-grade NPI kept narrowing the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap, and cost support continued to weaken. Although higher production schedules fueled expectations of a recovery in rigid demand, steel mills’ limited profit margins and cautious restocking attitudes provided insufficient support for the market. Against a backdrop of multiple bearish factors resonating, stainless steel scrap will weaken in tandem with futures in the short term and remain in the doldrums overall. As of Friday this week, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai were flat, quoted at 10,450 yuan/mt...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Underpin Stainless Steel Scrap Holding Steady; Weak Off-Season Demand Caps Upside Room This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China remained unchanged, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; prices in Foshan pulled back slightly, within a range of 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. An analysis of raw material production costs shows that the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap is about 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while using only high-grade NPI reaches 14,968.22 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a stable cost spread. Stainless steel scrap prices were broadly stable this week. Indonesian news disrupted market sentiment during the week, and SS futures swung wildly. The futures fluctuations transmitted to the spot market, driving concurrent swings in spot stainless steel products, but overall prices only pulled back slightly, highlighting the resilience of spot prices. The price of the alternative raw material high-grade NPI continued to consolidate on a strong note, and the overall tone on the raw material side was relatively steady. Caught in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices remained stable during the week. Overall, cost advantages and production resumption expectations provided support, but end-user off-season fundamentals continued to suppress price increases. The market is still in the traditional stainless steel consumption off-season, and downstream end-user demand for finished steel products is generally weak, leaving the market without a sustained upward driver from end-user demand. Although the market expects stainless steel production schedules to improve in August, which may lift rigid demand for stainless steel scrap, and the current economic advantages of stainless steel scrap remain in place, providing potential bullish support for the market…

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota News Hits Futures, Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices Pull Back in Tandem According to an SMM report on Aug 6, SS futures trended downward and hit bottom. The SHFE nickel and SS futures dropped together, impacted by news of additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia's RKAB. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the SS futures' successive declines intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. Although traders generally lowered their quotes in line with futures, inquiries remained sluggish, and transactions weakened further. SS most-traded futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was reported at 14,465 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B material in the Wuxi area were in the 405-855 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held stable. For cold-rolled unedged 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 75 yuan/mt, while that in Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat. Quotes for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi were unchanged. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. This week, macro sentiment shifted bearish, dominating metal market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note overall. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its meeting this week, but its overall stance was hawkish. Commodity valuations generally came under pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Dragged by the spillover effect of macro headwinds, SS futures followed suit and consolidated on a subdued note, with the center of the futures moving lower. The overall market...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreat after Rapid Rise; Spot Stainless Steel Trades Cool Down According to SMM on August 5, SS futures generally pulled back, ending yesterday's shot up, and followed SHFE nickel to slump sharply. As of close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,475 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the renewed decline in SS futures, trading sentiment weakened notably, and traders lowered their quotes. Under the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, transactions turned visibly quiet. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 am, SS2609 was at 14,480 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 490-890 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan also fell by 75 yuan/mt; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish, dominating metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed's interest rate meeting this week kept rates unchanged as expected, but the overall stance was hawkish, weighing on commodity valuations broadly, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Affected by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures consolidated on a subdued note in tandem, with the center of futures moving lower and overall market trading sentiment cautious. Spot and inventory side, futures...

Prices for AISI 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils edged higher across Asian markets, supported by upstream mill price hikes and increased spot market activity, with cost factors underpinning prices despite sluggish end-buyer demand. Chinese export offers rose approximately US$30/ton week-on-week, driven primarily by climbing raw material costs and improved procurement from Southeast Asia. However, elevated domestic inventory in China continued to exert downward pressure on spot prices. On the raw materials front, Indonesian NPI prices edged up largely due to new export inspection regulations implemented by Indonesian customs, which have disrupted the flow of nickel product exports.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Center Moves Up, Spot Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Recovers According to SMM news on August 4, SS futures shot up and probed higher overall. Near the close of the night session, driven by fund operations, SHFE nickel and SS futures shot up quickly. Although SS pulled back briefly at the morning open, it had risen significantly overall. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. Spot market, buoyed by the rally in SS futures, traders for stainless steel agents raised their quotes even as steel mill spot guidance prices held steady. Market activity picked up and inquiry and transaction performance was moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 AM, SS2609 was at 14,870 yuan/mt, up 345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 200–550 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, average prices: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil stable; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil (Wuxi up 50 yuan/mt, Foshan up 75 yuan/mt); Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quote flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the contagion of macro headwinds, SS futures...