[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs and Prices Pull Back in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Remain Basically Stable This week, stainless steel prices and production costs fell together, and steel mill profit margins remained basically stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled as the benchmark, the profit margin calculated with current raw materials was 2.07%, while that using inventory raw materials was 1.33%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a pullback trend this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures were in the doldrums overall. Although there were widespread expectations of tight supply for high-grade NPI and upstream smelters and traders maintained firm offers, stainless steel mills' production schedule expectations pulled back, leading to weaker demand, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in stainless steel prices, the industry's acceptance of high-priced supply was very limited, and market transactions remained sluggish. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,133 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. The weak futures market transmitted downward to spot cargo, and combined with sluggish off-season demand and reduced steel mill production schedules, rigid demand weakened further. Although steel scrap had an economic advantage over NPI, providing floor support for prices, uncertainty over Indonesian policies kept the market in a wait-and-see stance. Under the weight of bearish fundamentals, short-term stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue to be in the doldrums. As of this Friday, the mainstream 304 off-cuts price in the Shanghai region fell by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. High-carbon ferrochrome production remained high...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures Weakness Dragged Down Stainless Steel Scrap Prices; Off-Season Demand Slump Pressured Market This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,350-10,450 yuan/mt; prices of the same specification stainless steel scrap in the Foshan area fell in tandem, with a price range of 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material production cost analysis, the current cost to produce stainless steel entirely using stainless steel scrap is about 14,520.18 yuan/mt, while the cost using high-grade NPI reaches 14,988.98 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a favorable cost spread. Stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. During the week, SS futures consolidated weakly, and the weak sentiment in the futures market transmitted to the spot market, driving stainless steel finished product spot prices to also pull back slightly; the decline in the substitute raw material high-grade NPI slowed down, reducing its drag on the market, but the overall atmosphere in the raw material market remained mediocre. Under the influence of the futures-spot linkage, stainless steel scrap prices edged down slightly in tandem. Overall, cost support is difficult to offset the bearish pressure from fundamentals. The market has now entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with end-use demand lacking internal momentum, and the expected production schedules of stainless steel mills pulling back, directly leading to a simultaneous weakening of rigid demand for stainless steel scrap. Meanwhile, news about the supplementary quota for Indonesian nickel ore remains unresolved, and policy uncertainty in the industry chain has been rising, leaving the overall market sentiment cautious and wait-and-see. Although stainless steel scrap still maintains a decent economic advantage over high-grade NPI, providing bottom support for prices, under the dual pressures of weak futures and the off-season…

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Finished Products Decline Drives Down Stainless Steel Scrap Prices; Cost Advantages Fail to Offset Off-Season Pessimism This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,450-10,550 yuan/mt; the same specification stainless steel scrap prices in Foshan also pulled back, with a price range of 10,350-10,650 yuan/mt. Analyzing production costs from the raw material side, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap is currently about 14,640.79 yuan/mt, while the cost using high-grade NPI reaches 15,072.29 yuan/mt, with the two still maintaining a favorable cost spread. This week, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back. During the week, SS stainless steel futures and SHFE nickel futures both pulled back, with bearish sentiment in the futures continuing to ferment. The bearish trend spread to the spot market, dragging down spot prices of stainless steel finished products. At the same time, the alternative raw material high-grade NPI prices also weakened, forming a linkage of declines across futures, finished products, and alternative raw materials, which directly dragged down stainless steel scrap prices this week. Overall, cost support is difficult to offset multiple bearish pressures. The market is currently in the traditional stainless steel consumption off-season, with end-use demand itself weak. Coupled with macro uncertainties such as warming expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, overall market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and downward pressure on raw material prices continues to increase. Meanwhile, recent news of stainless steel mill production cuts and maintenance has emerged frequently, further lowering market expectations for stainless steel scrap demand. Although stainless steel scrap still maintains good economic advantages compared with high-grade NPI, providing some bottom support...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extended Decline, Stainless Steel Spot Followed Lower with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on June 25, SS futures extended their decline and weakened. Non-ferrous metals futures continued their downtrend, and combined with the impact of yesterday’s Indonesian nickel ore quota news, SS futures fell further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, pressured by the ongoing decline in futures and the arrival of the traditional consumption off-season, the sluggish trading situation was hard to reverse, and traders showed a strong willingness to sell. Although a mainstream stainless steel mill kept its guidance price unchanged in the morning, spot quotes still fell along with futures, and trading remained sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was reported at 14,600 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 370-970 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil remained flat; cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge saw its average price fall by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 50 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot swung wildly. Macro expectations outside China repeatedly disrupted the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the pattern was one of macros driving futures trends, trading fluctuating with sentiment, supply tightening supporting spot, inventory remaining stable, and profits seeing a minor recovery...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report] SS Futures Decline Consecutively; Spot Stainless Steel Traders Sell Actively at a Discount to Boost Shipments According to SMM on June 24, SS futures continued to trend lower and weaken. Nonferrous metals futures extended their decline, with SS moving down in tandem. Near the close, news emerged that Indonesia might raise its RKAB nickel ore quota, causing SHFE nickel and SS to pull back further. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,720 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the consecutive decline in SS futures, market sentiment was generally weak. To reduce their own inventories, spot traders had a strong willingness to sell, and selling at a discount became more frequent. Stainless steel spot quotes declined accordingly, but the sluggish trading remained hard to change. For the most-traded SS futures contract, at 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was quoted at 14,740 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 330-830 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coil average price in Wuxi remained unchanged; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with rough edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 25 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was quoted unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices experienced wild swings, as macro expectations outside China repeatedly disturbed the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the futures trend was dominated by macro factors, trading fluctuated with sentiment, and supply...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Base Metals Slump Drags SS Lower; Spot Stainless Steel Holds Price Floor with Limited Losses as Downstream Stays Sidelined According to SMM on June 23, SS futures fluctuated lower and gradually pulled back. Base metals futures fell across the board today, dragging SS futures lower in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,885 yuan/mt. In the spot market, while SS futures pulled back sharply, cautious wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises intensified, and spot transactions remained sluggish with no significant improvement. However, spot traders continued to hold their price quotes firm, limiting the overall extent of price declines. Regarding the most-traded SS futures contract, at 10:15 AM, SS2608 was reported at 14,930 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B products in the Wuxi area ranged 240-640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled, un-edged 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt while the average price in Foshan remained flat; prices for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area were flat; and for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quoted prices in Wuxi fell by 25 yuan/mt. Prices for cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot experienced wild swings, as offshore macro expectations repeatedly disrupted futures and the market saw an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall landscape was one where macro forces dominated futures, transactions fluctuated with sentiment, tightening supply supported spot prices, inventories remained steady, and profits saw minor repairs. Early in the week, macro tailwinds lifted the market, and the futures rebound spurred a recovery in spot transactions; by mid-week...