This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 10,100-10,200 yuan/mt; prices for the same grade of stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan dropped back slightly, with the price range at 9,700-10,000 yuan/mt. Raw material production cost side, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,218.64 yuan/mt, while the production cost of using only high-grade NPI was 14,745.57 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable, mainly as supportive and constraining factors were intertwined, with no obvious one-way trend. Stainless steel finished product prices edged down under pressure from weaker SS futures, and market sentiment was somewhat disturbed, but this did not directly transmit to the stainless steel scrap market, where prices remained stable. Substitute furnace charge performed steadily, with both high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices largely stable this week and showing no obvious fluctuations in change, so their overall impact in driving stainless steel scrap prices was limited and failed to provide effective support or drag. Factors supporting the stable performance of stainless steel scrap prices were more prominent. The recent tightness in stainless steel scrap tax invoices eased somewhat, improving the market trading environment. Meanwhile, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI remained in place. In addition, stainless steel mills' April production schedules stayed high, and steel mills increased their use of stainless steel scrap with economic advantages, lifting recent market trading activity, while previously accumulated inventory pressure also eased to some extent, providing strong support for stable prices. However, constraining factors also remained. Stainless steel finished product prices currently faced difficulty moving higher, and under this transmission effect, stainless steel scrap prices still faced some pressure to rise, making any obvious upward trend difficult to emerge. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "strong support, clear constraints, and stable prices." Supportive and constraining factors counterbalanced each other, and stainless steel scrap prices were expected to remain stable in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Moved Sideways, with Cost Support Keeping Spot Stainless Steel Largely Stable SMM News on April 1: SS futures fluctuated. Stainless steel futures rose first and then fell, with a relatively small intraday change, closing at 14,180 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, SS futures fluctuated, while prices of various furnace charge materials remained relatively firm, supporting stainless steel prices. Market quotations were largely stable, with limited room to rise or fall. Although downstream end-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, current market inventory pressure was not high, and prices were still expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,275 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 195-395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions from downstream end-users remained steady, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, with procurement mainly driven by restocking based on demand, and the brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had yet to emerge. Overall demand remained steady and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made it difficult for the short-term impact on SS futures to be fully eliminated; however, recently...

Wuzhou Yongda Stainless Steel Project secured 2.55 million yuan in central government funding. Meanwhile, Guangdong Zhongqing Environmental Protection received approval for its 600,000-ton/year stainless steel scrap recycling project, which includes sorting and baling production lines. On the raw materials front, Indonesian ferronickel has successfully arrived at Jiangsu ports and entered warehouses, ensuring a steady supply for the domestic market.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Export Taxation Failed to Halt the SS Downtrend; Spot Stainless Steel Remained Stable, with Transactions Mainly Driven by Rigid Demand SMM News, March 31: SS futures continued to decline and pull back. Although news emerged about export taxation on Indonesian nickel products, dragged down by weaker SHFE nickel today, SS futures also fell in tandem, closing at 14,145 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, despite the decline in SS futures, the spot stainless steel market remained stable overall. Most traders kept quotes unchanged, while downstream end-users mainly maintained steady procurement based on rigid demand. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions among downstream end-users remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was mainly driven by restocking as needed. The brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made its short-term impact on SS futures difficult to fully eliminate; however, recently, due to the conflict...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Uncertainty Coupled With Just-in-Time Demand Support Kept Stainless Steel Spot and Futures Fluctuating SMM News, March 30: SS futures maintained a fluctuating trend. As macro news continued to cause disruptions, the market struggled to find a clear direction, making it difficult to change the fluctuating pattern in futures. As of the midday close, prices stood at 14,360 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot stainless steel transactions were mostly driven by just-in-time demand, with limited fluctuations in market quotations, and traders generally adopted a strategy of holding prices steady for shipments. Although current stainless steel prices still had some cost support, heavy macro uncertainty fostered strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market; to avoid price fluctuations, downstream players mostly made just-in-time procurement. Despite solid underlying just-in-time demand during the peak season, fundamental factors such as supply and demand and costs were still unlikely to dominate stainless steel price trends in the short term. The most-traded SS futures contract maintained a fluctuating trend. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 105-305 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Downstream end-user transactions remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious, with end-user enterprises showing little willingness to stockpile, and purchases were mostly made through restocking as needed...