SMM, August 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.52%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, SHFE lead rose 0.41%, SHFE zinc fell 1.68%, SHFE tin fell 1.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.33%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures edged down. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.5%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.54%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.7%, rebar fell 0.47%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Stainless steel rose 0.48%. For coking coal and coke, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.75%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.43%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.3%, LME aluminum rose 0.69%, LME lead rose 0.29%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.52%, and LME nickel fell 0.21%. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.36%. In the domestic precious metals market, SHFE gold rose 1.5%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.05%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.61%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures fell 2.8% to 1,634 points. As of 11:43 on August 10, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at 0 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,945 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,835 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory edged up, mainly due to increased arrivals of imported copper... Macro Front Domestic: [NBS: July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] National Bureau of Statistics data showed: In July, affected by imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and rose 0.9% YoY, with CPI generally maintaining a mild increase. Domestic demand in some sectors increased, but influenced by imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, the national PPI rose 3.5% YoY and fell 0.7% MoM. The purchase price of industrial producers rose 5.5% YoY and fell 1.0% MoM. From January to July on average, the PPI rose 1.8% YoY compared with the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose 2.8%. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Statistics Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the July 2026 CPI and PPI data. [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day] Today, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.72. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 55.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 44.4%. By October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike is 47.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp hike is 11.8%. (Jin10 Data) Economists surveyed by Reuters expect that the US headline CPI annual rate for July will decline to 3.4% from June's 3.5%, and the core CPI annual rate will decline to 2.5% from the previous month's 2.6%. Citi economists believe that, as expected, if there is a second consecutive month of softer inflation readings, it would mean that for more than one month, data point to cooling inflationary pressures, essentially removing the possibility of a September rate hike. However, economists also expect that core services inflation will edge up in July, with prices rising 0.3% MoM. This follows flat readings from May to June. Bank of America analysts say that a rebound in core services indicators could keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data come in below expectations, the Fed rate hike could be postponed to December or later. (Jin10 Data) The US CPI report released on Wednesday was undoubtedly the most closely watched data this week. Economists generally expect the annual inflation rate to slow slightly, but core inflation may still remain elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in services and housing. Based on the latest data, the Fed remains cautious, emphasizing the need for further confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before considering interest rate cuts. (Jin10 Data) Data front: Today, data such as the Eurozone August Sentix investor confidence index and China's July M2 money supply annual growth rate will be released. Attention should be paid to: the Bank of Japan's release of the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. Crude oil: As of 11:43, both oil benchmarks rose, with US oil up 0.67% and Brent up 0.91%. The deadlock in Iran-US negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. Iran's weekend negotiations with Oman failed to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated clearly that Tehran is not currently in direct talks with the US. According to media reports, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets six conditions, including ending wars and aggressive actions against Iran and its allies and providing compensation to Iran. The US insists that any reopening arrangement must guarantee unrestricted freedom of navigation, with no Iranian approval, fees, or control conditions. Citi noted that Houthi forces in Yemen continue to attack Saudi-linked vessels near the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and risks beyond Hormuz also remain elevated. (Wall Street CN) Spot market at a glance: ► ► ► ► Other metal spot midday comments will be updated later, please refresh to view~

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesia MHP nickel is $15,208/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesia MHP cobalt is $46,893/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 83-84, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 88. The Indonesia high-grade nickel matte FOB price is $15,633/mt Ni.

Stainless steel and aluminium trader Gerber Group submitted a detailed statement to the EU consultation on the draft CBAM certificate platform regulation, with a core message: a typing error is not fraud, and a single irrevocable annual repurchase request is not simplification. Under the current draft effective February 1, 2027, purchase requests cannot be amended once submitted, and repurchase requests may only be made once per year with no correction or withdrawal permitted. CEO Thorsten Gerber noted that the Commission may correct its own drafts, platform operators may rectify reports, and authorities may correct data — yet SMEs that finance the system are expected to be infallible. Gerber Group demands a general right to correct obvious input errors before payment, monthly repurchase processing within 15 calendar days, automatic deadline protection when Commission systems fail, and multilingual support. Critics also note the draft contains placeholders, incorrect legal references, and contradictory provisions, while the proposed platform fee of EUR 0.05 per certificate — roughly 16 times the EEX rate — would generate approximately EUR 22 million annually with no published cost justification.

Driven by price hikes for 300-series products led by Yusco and Tang Eng, Taiwan's sluggish stainless steel spot market saw a noticeable revival this week with increased buying activity. While some distributors and major traders remain cautious due to weak demand and high-priced inventory, rising replacement costs have pushed dealers to raise selling prices. Small traders and end users began restocking, with orders in the first three days of the week surpassing the entire first half of the month. Trading volume remains modest overall, but the market shows clear signs of life, with future stability hinging on demand recovery, mill pricing strategies, and trends in imported materials from Vietnam.

Chinese Taiwan's stainless steel mills have announced August price increases of NT$1,500/ton for 304 flat-rolled products, initiating active pricing negotiations with downstream distributors while maintaining firm cost-support price levels. Despite sluggish market demand, producers are holding price floors supported by LME nickel prices stabilizing above US$17,000 in July and August, steady Indonesian raw material quotations, and a weakening New Taiwan Dollar trading near 32.447 against the US dollar. Distributor purchasing direction is expected to become clearer as negotiations conclude.

SMM, August 10: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals across domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. Other metals fell within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while the aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar ended flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Last Friday overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight last Friday, reclaiming $4,400/oz, and surged 7.17% for the week; COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight last Friday, up 10.41% for the week. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold gained 5.03% for the week, while SHFE silver gained 9.43%. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said: "The current gold rally has fundamental support. We expect gold prices to march toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, gold prices briefly pulled back under pressure. UBS strategists said: Risks remain in the short term. If oil prices rise or the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and increased bond appeal, gold prices will face pressure; however, the institution remains optimistic on gold's medium- and long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume its rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations for lower policy rates are likely to suppress real yields and weigh on the dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal." (Wall Street CN) As of 7:40 on August 8, last Friday's overnight closing quotes: Macro front Domestic: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued growth momentum in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released data today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Of which, exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of this, exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, and imports reached 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2% YoY. SMM compiled the import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: [H1 aluminum industry profit up about 115% YoY, aluminum semis and aluminum products exports up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, the aluminum industry's profit rose about 115% YoY. While aluminum prices increased, raw material costs such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises also further adopted green electricity like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and gaining cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients pressing for orders, but overseas clients were also placing more orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, up about 14% YoY. More orders and busier production lines meant environmental protection facilities were running at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: Housing Provident Fund Maximum Loan Amount to Be Moderately Raised; Married Couples' First-Home Provident Fund Loan Can Be Up to 3.4 Million Yuan] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." The notice mentioned that the maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be moderately raised. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home it is 1 million yuan. For families where both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home it is 2 million yuan. For those meeting the following conditions, the maximum loan amount can be further increased: 1. For households registered in the six urban districts purchasing a first home outside those districts, the maximum can be raised by 200,000 yuan; 2. For home purchases that comply with the city's policies supporting green building development, the maximum can be raised by 400,000 yuan; 3. For Beijing-registered families with two or more children purchasing a home, it can be raised by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met, the maximum loan amount can be raised cumulatively: for a family with one contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of last Friday’s overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, down 0.18% for the week and recording a two-week losing streak. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the labour force participation rate hit its lowest in over five years. The disappointing jobs data caused the probability of a September rate hike to plunge from 55% to 44%, the 10-year Treasury yield dived from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index briefly fell below 99.5 intraday. ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a hard one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence that the labour market is re-accelerating, which may partly weaken the case for a rate hike next month, though this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the 12 voting members voted for a hike. A falling unemployment rate will keep attention focused on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest New York Fed survey showed that Americans’ overall perceptions of the job market improved in July, while their inflation expectations also shifted. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. The increase was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less and households with annual incomes below $50,000. Consumers became more optimistic about the stock market, with the expected probability that stock prices would rise in a year reaching the highest since April 2021 for this series. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, with a 40.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For October, the probabilities are: rates unchanged (45.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (44.9%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (9.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week, China will release the July M2 money supply y/y data, among others; the US will release the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended July 25, July existing home sales annualized, July CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, July CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, the high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction on August 12, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, July PPI y/y and m/m, July retail sales m/m, the preliminary August one-year inflation expectations, June business inventories m/m, and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; the eurozone will release the August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, June industrial production m/m, the revised Q2 GDP y/y, final Q2 employment q/q seasonally adjusted, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, June three-month GDP m/m, June manufacturing output m/m, June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and June industrial production m/m; data including France’s July final CPI m/m, Canada’s June wholesale sales m/m, Japan’s June trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on August 11, and Germany’s July final CPI m/m will also be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attends a hearing. Crude oil: Both crude oil benchmarks fell in overnight trading last Friday, with WTI down 0.27% and Brent down 0.13%. Weekly, WTI dropped 8.96% and Brent fell 6.31%. The market remains focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement have compressed the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimates Brent's fair value at $80 and maintains a consolidation range of $80-90. On August 7, US officials said that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. US actions will continue to depend on actual performance and will be linked to Iran’s compliance with its commitments. Regarding the above, Iran and Oman have yet to respond. (CCTV) It was learned on August 7 that Hassan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be released soon. On August 6, Iran disclosed preliminary text details of the proposed Strait of Hormuz strategic management plan, which includes prohibiting hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators to be fined up to 20% of the cargo value. Iran has repeatedly stressed in recent days that arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and will never accept any external intervention. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on the 6th that the US is participating in the negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) This week, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA publishes its monthly oil market report, and OPEC issues its monthly oil market report (specific release times are to be confirmed, typically around 18-21 Beijing time). China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.