Shanghai spot copper quotes shifted rapidly from a premium to a discount this week. At the start of the week, typhoon weather disrupted cargo pick-up and transportation at some warehouses in east China, reducing cargo movement efficiency and offering brief support to spot premiums; however, as delivery approached, the backwardation between adjacent contract months widened sharply, suppliers’ contract rollover costs rose significantly, and their willingness to sell increased accordingly. Standard-quality copper quotes slid quickly from a premium at the start of the week to around a discount of 300 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, SHFE copper prices stayed high, end-use demand remained weak, and trading in lower-priced non-registered copper was relatively active, but this failed to drive a marked improvement in overall buying. On the inventory side, Shanghai social inventory came in at 79,300 mt, up 1,000 mt from this Monday; Jiangsu social inventory came in at 18,100 mt, unchanged from this Monday, and spot supply has not yet tightened notably. Looking ahead to next week, delivery and contract rollover will continue to dominate spot quotes. If the market continues to quote against the SHFE copper 2608 contract, the wide backwardation between adjacent contract months and suppliers’ selling pressure may keep spot quotes at a deep discount. As the pricing basis gradually shifts to the SHFE copper 2609 contract, spot quotes will show a marked recovery; however, this apparent rise in premiums mainly stems from the switch in contract price spreads and does not signal a genuine strengthening in spot supply and demand. From the demand side, high copper prices will continue to limit downstream purchasing volumes, and the market is expected to see persistent need-based buying; low-priced cargoes and cargoes from brands with higher recognition may be relatively favoured. Overall, Shanghai spot copper quotes are expected to shift to a premium against the SHFE copper 2609 contract next week, but the actual transaction price center will remain under pressure from weak end-use consumption, and price spreads between brands and divergence in transaction activity may continue to widen.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 79,300 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW from this Monday; Jiangsu social inventory at 18,100 mt, flat WoW from this Monday. Overall inventory in east China edged up, and spot supply has yet to show any clear tightening. With delivery approaching, the intermonth Back price spread between futures contracts further widened to 600–750 yuan/mt. Higher contract rollover costs prompted some suppliers to accelerate spot sales, and quotes against the 2608 contract quickly moved lower accordingly; meanwhile, some deliverable-brand cargo meeting delivery standards flowed into the warrant channel, further differentiating spot cargo flows. After intraday discounts widened to around 300 yuan/mt, some market participants began to purchase, but trades clearly skewed toward cargo with lower prices, higher brand recognition, or better fit with their own production needs. Downstream buyers had ample choices and became more stringent in screening by brand and price, while actual end-use demand has yet to show any obvious improvement. As delivery neared, some suppliers had attempted to shift to quoting against the 2609 contract, with offers around a premium of 400 yuan/mt; the market may gradually enter a phase where the 2608 and 2609 contracts serve as dual benchmarks in parallel. It should be noted that the apparent uplift in premiums after contract rollover mainly came from the Back spread switch and does not indicate a substantive strengthening of spot supply and demand. Overall, if quoting continues against the 2608 contract, spot cargo may remain at relatively deep discounts; as the pricing benchmark gradually shifts to the 2609 contract, quotes are set to recover markedly, but transaction divergence among brands is expected to persist.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 79,300 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW from this Monday; Jiangsu social inventory at 18,100 mt, flat WoW from this Monday. Overall inventory in east China edged up, and spot supply has yet to show any clear tightening. With delivery approaching, the intermonth Back price spread between futures contracts further widened to 600–750 yuan/mt. Higher contract rollover costs prompted some suppliers to accelerate spot sales, and quotes against the 2608 contract quickly moved lower accordingly; meanwhile, some deliverable-brand cargo meeting delivery standards flowed into the warrant channel, further differentiating spot cargo flows. After intraday discounts widened to around 300 yuan/mt, some market participants began to purchase, but trades clearly skewed toward cargo with lower prices, higher brand recognition, or better fit with their own production needs. Downstream buyers had ample choices and became more stringent in screening by brand and price, while actual end-use demand has yet to show any obvious improvement. As delivery neared, some suppliers had attempted to shift to quoting against the 2609 contract, with offers around a premium of 400 yuan/mt; the market may gradually enter a phase where the 2608 and 2609 contracts serve as dual benchmarks in parallel. It should be noted that the apparent uplift in premiums after contract rollover mainly came from the Back spread switch and does not indicate a substantive strengthening of spot supply and demand. Overall, if quoting continues against the 2608 contract, spot cargo may remain at relatively deep discounts; as the pricing benchmark gradually shifts to the 2609 contract, quotes are set to recover markedly, but transaction divergence among brands is expected to persist.

The average warrant price on August 13 fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $95/mt (price range: $89-101/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $90/mt (price range: $85-95/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $62/mt (price range: $56-68/mt), with offers based on cargoes arriving from August to early September. Today, the LME nearby backwardation structure narrowed and the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered somewhat, prompting some suppliers to maintain a wait-and-see stance, while downstream purchasing sentiment remained sluggish. At present, buyers and sellers still had relatively wide differences in their bids and offers, and actual transactions were sluggish. Today, mainstream quotations for August registered warrants were heard at $100-105/mt, with a small volume transacted at $90-100/mt.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode prices were quoted against the front-month contract at a discount of 420-350 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 385 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average transaction price was 107,870 yuan/mt, down 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[Cochilco Again Lowers 2026 Chilean Copper Production Forecast; H2 Recovery Still Has Room to Materialize] Cochilco has recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups and operational constraints in H1. Over the same period, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 7.9% YoY, with Chile’s share of China’s copper concentrate imports falling to 29.3%; the contribution of Chilean supply to the Chinese market weakened temporarily. However, most miners maintained their full-year production guidance, mainly banking on H2 recovery from the switch to higher-grade ore zones, the completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups. Going forward, whether Chilean production rebounds on schedule will continue to affect the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance and the TC trend.