The World Steel Association reported on March 25, 2026, that while global crude steel production fell by 2.2% in February, India’s production surged by 7.7% year-on-year to reach 13.6 million tonnes. This growth is driven by the government's aggressive infrastructure spending and the "Make in India" initiative, which has bolstered domestic steel consumption. The increase in Indian output helps offset production declines in Russia and South America, as the country moves toward its national goal of 300 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2030.

[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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According to CMOC’s official WeChat account: On March 27, CMOC released its 2025 annual results report, which showed that the company’s operating revenue reached 206.684 billion yuan, standing firmly above the 200 billion yuan mark for the second consecutive year; net profit attributable to shareholders came in at 20.339 billion yuan, up 50.30% YoY and setting a new record for the fifth consecutive year; net operating cash flow reached the second-highest level in its history at 20.843 billion yuan; and total assets exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.932 billion yuan, up 18.03% YoY. In particular, in Q4, the company recorded operating revenue of 61.198 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.059 billion yuan, and copper production of nearly 200,000 mt, all setting record highs for a single quarter. In 2025, with organisational upgrading as its main focus, the company built a “specialised, internationalised, and younger” team, refined its operations, and, together with rising prices for major products and strong production and sales, pushed its performance to a new peak. Specifically— Operating quality continued to improve. Revenue from the mining segment reached 77.713 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of total operating revenue, with the “mining” share up about 7 percentage points from 2024. Among this, revenue from copper products was 55.096 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of total operating revenue and 71% of mining-segment revenue. Both “copper” share indicators increased by about 7 percentage points YoY. This was attributable to the continued debottlenecking of two world-class copper mines, TFM and KFM, based on their existing six production lines. During the reporting period, the company’s copper production reached 741,100 mt, setting another record high and consolidating its position among the world’s top 10 copper producers. Based on the midpoint of production guidance, the completion rate was 118%, while maintaining double-digit growth of 13.99% YoY. Sales were 730,200 mt, up 5.90% YoY. Together with higher prices, copper revenue increased 31.63% YoY. Production of other products also exceeded expectations: niobium production hit a record high of 10,348 mt, with a completion rate of 103%; phosphate fertiliser production was 1.2135 million mt, with a completion rate of 106%; cobalt production was 117,500 mt, with a completion rate of 107%; molybdenum production was 13,906 mt, with a completion rate of 103%; and tungsten production was 7,114 mt, with a completion rate of 102%. In addition, the company recorded physical trading volume of 4.71 million mt, with a completion rate of 111%; IXM’s gross margin under IFRS was 2.11%, a recent high. The results of “cost reduction and efficiency improvement” became even more evident. Full-year operating costs were 157.229 billion yuan, down 11.56% YoY. In 2025, mining areas worldwide focused on key words such as innovation, technological transformation, and process optimisation, putting the concept of “refined operations” into practice. In Q4, TFM’s overall copper beneficiation and smelting recovery rate, equipment operating rate, and raw ore throughput all exceeded the calendar schedule; KFM established an ore characteristics database and ore blending model, lifting grinding efficiency by more than 30% YoY; at CMOC Brazil’s niobium segment, the recovery rates of two beneficiation plants rose by about 2 percentage points from the previous year, setting record highs; in China, recovery rates at Shangfanggou molybdenum and Sandaozhuang molybdenum and tungsten increased by 3.24 and 2.65, and 3.17 percentage points YoY, respectively, also reaching record highs. Centered on “multiple products, multiple countries, and multiple stages,” the company built a “copper + gold” dual-pole structure in 2025, adding gold resources last year. Together with the greenfield gold mine in Ecuador and four operating gold mines in Brazil, the company will have gold production capacity of 20 mt in South America by 2029. The Ecuador gold mine is expected to start production in 2029, with land acquisition and power supply assurance advancing rapidly; the Brazil gold mines achieved output above target in the first two months, and are expected to produce 6-8 mt of gold this year. Targeting copper production of 800,000-1 million mt in 2028, the company is building Phase II of the KFM project, which is expected to add annual copper capacity of 100,000 mt after coming into operation in 2027; TFM identified resource potential in relevant deposits, and preliminary preparations for Phase III construction are accelerating. In addition, the company completed the issuance of a $1.2 billion one-year zero-coupon convertible bond, broadening financing channels to support the implementation of its strategy. Alongside earnings growth, the company consistently practiced high-standard ESG principles. During the reporting period, ESG governance was further improved and digitalisation advanced; environmental performance led globally: the carbon emission intensity of its copper products was lower than that of 70% of mining companies worldwide, while the shares of renewable energy and water recycling increased further from 2024 to 38% and 89%, respectively; total global economic contribution reached 182.42 billion yuan, and global community investment was 488 million yuan. 2026 is a critical year for the company to fully implement its new development strategy and deepen platform-based operations and refined management. The company will further build a platform-based organisation: with the global supply chain centre as the pioneer, it will enhance synergies and cost competitiveness; relying on the “622” model, supplemented by multinational mine management experience and standardised business processes, it will improve its global control system. Centered on the “copper-gold dual poles,” the company will further transform its resource advantages into capacity and production advantages, while continuing to seek high-quality targets. With the goal of becoming a “globally leading, distinctive world-class mining company,” the company will continue to forge ahead in the mining industry.

[Australian Typhoons Continued to Disrupt, and Import TCs Kept Falling]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly domestic SMM Zn50 TC held flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell $6.02/dmt MoM to $5.23/dmt...

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

On March 13, 2026, China's copper smelting industry set a new historical record. According to SMM data, the imported copper concentrate index closed at -60.39 USD/dmt, officially breaking through the -60 USD level.