June 5 News: North China ports: South African high-iron ore at yuan/mtu 32-32.5, down WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore at yuan/mtu 37.8-38.3, down WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at yuan/mtu 41.2-41.8, flat WoW from last Friday; 46% grade Australian lumps at yuan/mtu 43.5-44, down WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore at yuan/mtu 38.5-39, down WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-iron ore at yuan/mtu 34.9-35.4, down WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore at yuan/mtu 36.5-37, flat WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at yuan/mtu 41.7-42.2, flat WoW from last Friday; 46% grade Australian lumps at yuan/mtu 43.5-44, down WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore at yuan/mtu 38-38.5, down WoW from last Friday. With weakening cost support outside China and sluggish end-use demand, spot manganese ore in China fluctuates downward overall, though the short-term decline has moderated somewhat.

June 3 News: Northern ports: South African high-iron 32-32.5 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African semi-carbonate 37.8-38.3 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; Gabon 41.2-41.8 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; 46% Australian lumps 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African medium-iron 38.5-39 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday. Southern ports: South African high-iron 34.9-35.4 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African semi-carbonate 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; Gabon 41.7-42.2 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; 46% Australian lumps 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African medium-iron 38-38.5 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday. The current manganese ore market presents a pattern of strong cost expectations but weak actual demand, with short-term prices expected to move sideways. Going forward, the key focus will be on the pace of downstream alloy enterprises resuming production, as well as port inventory destocking.

SMM, MAY 31 – According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical alumina production in May 2026 fell by approximately 3.9% year-on-year, while rising by about 3.3% month-on-month. Ongoing disruptions in the Middle East kept output below last year's level, though a modest recovery was seen from April's low point. In terms of production structure Vedanta's FY26 earnings report showed full-year alumina production reached 2.9 million tonnes, a record high, mainly due to a 48% surge in output from the Lanjigarh refinery and cost optimization. The aluminum business contributed nearly 50% of the group's EBITDA, with production costs falling to $1,752 per tonne, the lowest in five years. According to South32's previous guidance, its Worsley alumina project continued to experience shipment disruptions due to tropical cyclones and third-party gas supply interruptions. The company maintained its full-year production guidance of 3.75 million tonnes, but expects second and third quarter output of 959,000 tonnes and 886,000 tonnes respectively, showing a phased decline. Additionally, geopolitical risks continued to simmer. The European Commission is considering tightening restrictions on alumina exports to Russia, which could reshape European alumina trade flows if sanctions are upgraded. Indonesia's Marine and Fisheries Ministry sealed three jetty berths of Well Harvest Winning Alumina (WHW) over compliance issues. The company is actively communicating with authorities and expects the berths to reopen soon, with local production temporarily unaffected. Looking ahead to June, uncertainties persist in overseas metallurgical alumina supply. Output is expected to edge down about 0.2% month-on-month. On the one hand, Indonesia's bauxite quota issues could disrupt local alumina refining; on the other hand, potential further EU restrictions on alumina exports to Russia would also affect output in related regions. The convergence of these factors is expected to lead to a slight fluctuation in overall overseas production.

I. MJP Quarterly Premium Surges, Asian Aluminum Market Pricing Center Shifts Significantly Upward This week, two major international aluminum producers, South32 and Rio Tinto, successively announced their Q3 2026 Japan Main Port (MJP) aluminum ingot CIF long-term contract quotes. South32 quoted $480/mt, while Rio Tinto quoted $460/mt. Compared to the Q2 finalised level of $350–353/mt, this represented a significant QoQ increase of $110–130/mt, a rise of over 30%, hitting a phased high in recent years. Affected by the sharp rise in premiums, the Japanese local spot market showed notable differentiation. Some downstream enterprises had relatively high price acceptance, releasing just-in-time procurement willingness; while more cost-sensitive buyers gradually shifted to alternative sources such as other mainstream ex-China brand aluminum ingots to reduce procurement costs. Regional cargo diversion intensified, and Japan's aluminum ingot procurement structure became increasingly diversified. II. Thailand CIF Market: Dual Tailwinds Support Price Rise, Market Shows Strong Prices but Weak Volume As Southeast Asia's core aluminum ingot transit and distribution hub, the Thai market was simultaneously supported by dual tailwinds of MJP high premium transmission and domestic aluminum scrap supply shortages, with traders showing strong willingness to hold prices firm. Currently, mainstream local aluminum ingot CIF offers remained stable at $300–320/mt, with quotes rising WoW. The logic supporting this round of price rise was clear: on the fundamentals side, China's aluminum scrap supply was tight, highlighting the overall aluminum element supply gap and providing solid bottom support for primary aluminum prices; externally, the Q3 MJP premium surge drove Southeast Asian traders to collectively raise spot quotes. Downstream participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see stance, with end-users only maintaining small-batch just-in-time procurement to restock, while overall proactive stockpiling sentiment remained subdued. Acceptance of high-priced resources was low, and the market exhibited a typical pattern of strong prices but weak volume. III. Vietnam Market: Fundamentals Operating Independently, Desensitized to MJP Premium Rise This round of MJP premium increase did not provide notable support to the Vietnamese aluminum market, with market trends remaining relatively independent. The core reason was that local processing enterprises chose to import aluminum semis as a substitute for purchasing aluminum ingots, significantly weakening domestic primary aluminum procurement demand. Domestic demand was diverted by finished aluminum semis, and market trading was sluggish. IV. South Korea Market: Transactions Recover and Prices Rise, Stockpiling Risks Gradually Emerge Driven by the rising QMJP premium, sellers in the South Korean market showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm, with the overall trading atmosphere outperforming other markets in the region. This week, spot transaction activity increased, and market transaction prices rose in tandem. V. Market Summary and Risk Alert: LME Structure Extremely Bullish, Squeeze Risk Elevated to High Levels At the current stage, the core contradiction in the Asian aluminum market stemmed from the global spot supply shortage. This shortage directly drove the Q3 MJP premium significantly higher and radiated outward to Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, and other regional markets, causing notable divergence in market conditions across regions. Meanwhile, the extreme backwardation structure in the LME market further amplifies potential risks at the commodity level: First, futures exhibit a deep backwardation structure. As of May 28, the LME Cash-3M backwardation was recorded at $92.53/mt. This extreme spot premium directly reflects the extreme scarcity of global spot resources. Second, social inventory is at historical lows. Total aluminum ingot inventory in LME registered warehouses stands at only around 340,000 mt, with stock levels hitting new lows. Available spot cargo remains insufficient, posing squeeze risks. Third, speculative stockpiling risks are intensifying. In a market environment of low inventory and high premiums, if regional traders collectively stockpile, hold back from selling, and hold prices firm, this could further tighten available market supply, exacerbate the current tight spot supply situation, and significantly increase the probability of a squeeze occurring. Overall, Asian aluminum prices are more likely to rise than fall in the short term, and the firm pricing pattern in core markets such as Thailand and South Korea will continue. However, market participants should be highly vigilant against squeeze crises triggered by the extreme LME backwardation structure. [Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

According to the latest market news, South32 made its first offer for Q3 2026 CIF MJP (CIF main Japanese ports)at $480/mt, valid until May 29, 2026.

Trilogy Metals said its Arctic copper project in Alaska has been accepted into the FAST-41 federal permitting program, aimed at accelerating approvals for major infrastructure and critical mineral projects. The project is being developed through a joint venture with South32. The company recently submitted its Clean Water Act Section 404 permit application, officially starting the federal permitting process. Trilogy also noted that the US government previously announced plans to take a 10% direct ownership stake in the company as part of efforts to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply chains. According to company estimates, the Arctic deposit contains indicated resources of approximately 35.7 million tonnes grading 2.98% copper and 4.09% zinc.