[Geopolitical Disturbances Marginally Weaken, Accelerating Destocking Supports Aluminum Prices Fluctuating Upward] On the macro front, Trump once again claimed that US-Iran negotiations have entered the "final moment," but the market has become desensitized to his repeated similar statements, and the geopolitical risk premium is marginally weakening. On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver for aluminum prices; however, the high inventory pressure in China remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for China's aluminum prices, and in the short term, China’s aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: Quoted prices for N-type recharging polysilicon are 32.7-35 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices are overall relatively weak, market transactions are weak, the earlier order signing has concluded, and the current focus is mainly on shipments while awaiting further policy developments. Wafers: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers are 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers are 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece. Currently, the three top-tier players are all holding prices, with overall transactions more optimistic than expectations, but recently facing pressure from both the cell and polysilicon ends.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours before fluctuating higher, hit a high of $2,001.5/mt in the European session, after which overhead selling pressure was released and the market quickly turned downward, dipping to $1,975/mt during the session. Prices corrected slightly in late trading and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt or 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices saw a slight correction, then short-term buying pushed prices slightly higher to a session high of 16,195 yuan/mt. After the high, bulls lacked follow-through, bears gradually took control, and futures fluctuated downward, with prices moving lower in steps to 16,075 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,095 yuan/mt, posting a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt or 0.46%. On the macro front: The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran over a helicopter incident, and Iran said it would respond resolutely. Trump: May participate in rebuilding Iran, but wants half the oil. Vance: A deal could be reached in the near term, but “definitely” before the midterm elections. U.S. media disclosed four major topics in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The EU plans to unveil its 21st round of sanctions against Russia. According to Nikkei: The Bank of Japan plans to raise rates to 1% at its June meeting. China's goods trade imports and exports grew 15.3% in the first five months. The U.S. added Alibaba, BYD, and others to its “military-related” list. Foreign Ministry: Urges the U.S. to stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Spot Fundamentals: In the morning, SHFE lead tumbled sharply, nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers diverged in their selling strategies, with a few still offering at discounts while most narrowed their discount quotes. In particular, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, with some only selling under long-term contracts. Mainstream primary lead smelters offered electrolytic lead at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price EXW. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with most halting shipments. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead EXW, resulting in an inverted relationship with primary lead. Downstream enterprises’ rigid demand favored the primary lead market, mainly sourcing cargoes self-picked up from production sites. The market saw both wait-and-see sentiment and dip-buying. Inventory: As of June 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,200 mt to 308,050 mt. As of June 8, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions stood at 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling remains cautious. On the lead ingot inventory front, destocking has been weak and has gradually stabilized, while expectations of inventory buildup are intensifying. On the sentiment front, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has posted five consecutive losses, with short positions gradually increasing and bearish sentiment gaining the upper hand in the short term. However, amid the persistent decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters, facing losses, are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, the downside room for lead prices finds some phased support.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 24,885 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE zinc briefly rose to hit a high of 24,945 yuan/mt, after which bulls reduced positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward to dip to a low of 24,670 yuan/mt at the end of the session. It finally closed down at 24,730 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt, or 0.12%. Trading volume decreased to 66,029 lots, and open interest decreased by 463 lots to 89,434 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Fragile US-Iran Situation Drives LME Zinc Center Higher] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,535/mt, briefly dipped to a low of $3,520.5/mt in early trading, then rose all the way during the night session to touch a high of $3,600/mt, before funds took profits and the center moved lower, eventually closing up at $3,546/mt, up $11.5/mt, or 0.33%. Trading volume increased to 15,243 lots, and open interest decreased by 562 lots to 234,000 lots.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Futures Weaken, SS Futures Pull Back; Spot Prices Steady with End-User Just-in-Time Procurement SMM reported on June 9 that SS futures showed a downward trend. Dragged by the overall weakness in non-ferrous metal futures, SS futures pulled back simultaneously. As of midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,420 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although futures fell back, spot stainless steel quotations remained firm, with mainstream quotations showing limited decline, but some lower-priced resources were also reported. Downstream end-users were cautious in purchasing, mostly making just-in-time procurement at low prices. The most-traded SS futures contract fell back. At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was quoted at 14,470 yuan/mt, down 255 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 550-1,200 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil fell 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price fell 25 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25 yuan/mt in Foshan; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotations in Wuxi held steady; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Stainless steel futures and spots experienced heightened volatility, futures rose first and then fell back, disturbed by overseas macro news, and off-season characteristics fully emerged. Industry expectations for the future were vague, wait-and-see sentiment was strong, transactions recovered in pulses but lacked sustainability, traders faced rising shipment pressure, and mostly boosted deals by cutting profits. Overall, macro news disturbed futures, off-season...