SMM's data was released with production fluctuating rangebound. HRC social inventory (large sample) stood at 5.5229 million mt, down 36,200 mt WoW, or down 0.65% WoW, and up 21.22% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis. Nationwide social inventory as a whole maintained a destocking trend, but by region, apart from continued inventory declines in South China and North China, inventories in other markets all increased. Meanwhile, traders maintained a moderate pace of purchase, and mill inventory turned from increase to decline. Total inventory stood at 6.7821 million mt, down 89,100 mt WoW. Looking ahead, the cost-side logic weakened due to falling crude oil prices and easing iron ore supply disruptions, and coil prices were expected to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations.

This week, HRC social inventory was 3.4922 million mt, down 22,800 mt from the previous period, down 0.65% WoW, up 31.41% YoY, and up 20.59% on a lunar-calendar YoY basis. This week, HRC mill inventory was 1.159 million mt, down 48,700 mt from the previous period, down 4.0% WoW, up 3.60% YoY, and down 1.91% on a lunar-calendar YoY basis. This week, total HRC inventory was 4.6512 million mt, down 71,500 mt from the previous period, down 1.51% WoW, up 23.17% YoY, and up 14.07% on a lunar-calendar YoY basis.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

SMM Nickel News, March 26: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 25, COSCO SHIPPING Lines issued a service notice announcing the immediate resumption of new bookings for services from the Far East to the following Middle East countries (dry containers): the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The resumption of shipments did not mean that COSCO SHIPPING container vessels could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. (2) In the early hours of March 25, Tehran time, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said in a statement on social media that non-hostile vessels could safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with relevant Iranian authorities, provided that the countries to which they belong or with which they are associated neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran, and fully comply with the announced safety and security regulations. Spot Market: On March 26, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 5,400 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel was at -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened sharply higher in last night's session and then fluctuated downward, closing the morning session today at 135,250 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices to rebound. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.

【SMM Copper Inventory Flash】 Over the weekend, social inventory of copper cathode in SMM’s major regions saw a sharp destocking, showing a pronounced destocking trend; driven by the significant pullback in copper prices, downstream consumption continued to recover, and market purchasing enthusiasm increased markedly.