As of Thursday, June 25, social copper inventories in major regions of China increased by 11,700 mt WoW to 206,000 mt, while regional inventory trends diverged significantly. Copper price pullbacks have spurred a recovery in downstream purchasing demand, and coupled with ongoing adjustments in the market's supply-demand pattern, inventory performance varied across regions. By region, inventory trends in China's key copper consumption areas showed pronounced divergence. In Shanghai and Jiangsu, the two core markets, inventories pulled back in tandem, signaling a notable recovery in demand. Recently, domestic copper prices fell sharply, with lower prices effectively stimulating downstream enterprises' restocking willingness. In Shanghai, buoyed by favorable prices, downstream purchasing activity increased significantly, continuously drawing down spot inventories; meanwhile, combined with relatively low regional arrivals in the prior period, the market maintained a destocking pattern. Jiangsu's market situation was largely in line with Shanghai's—falling copper prices prompted end-users to concentrate on pricing and purchasing, with rigid-demand orders released intensively, effectively driving steady destocking of regional inventories and markedly improving spot market liquidity. In stark contrast to Shanghai and Jiangsu, inventories in Guangdong continued to climb, becoming the main drag on the national inventory increase. According to market analysis, as the year entered the mid-year phase, consumption by downstream copper semis enterprises in Guangdong gradually slowed, end-user order growth pulled back, and overall willingness to purchase remained weak. Meanwhile, domestic smelters accelerated their shipment pace, concentrating deliveries into Guangdong warehouses, driving a significant increase in regional arrivals. Under the dual impact of weakening downstream consumption and concentrated inflows of upstream supply, copper inventories in Guangdong continued to accumulate. Looking ahead, China's copper market will see structural adjustments on both supply and demand sides in the short term, with a destocking trend essentially in place. On the supply side, the domestic copper cathode market has recently seen somewhat looser supply, with port arrivals of imported cathode steadily rising. Meanwhile, domestic smelters have maintained steady production and shipment pace, with domestic supply arrivals continuing to increase, resulting in ample overall spot supply. The outlook for demand improvement is more definitive. After this round of sharp copper price declines, downstream enterprises' cost pressure has eased significantly. Coupled with previously accumulated orders on hand awaiting execution, market stockpiling sentiment continues to recover, and end-user restocking demand for rigid needs is set to be released intensively, continuously consuming spot cargo circulating in the market. Overall, the current domestic copper spot market is characterized by a favorable pattern of "ample supply and recovering demand," with downstream restocking momentum sufficient to offset pressure from short-term new supply. SMM expects that next week, national copper social inventories will shift to a destocking pace, and overall inventories are likely to pull back steadily. Going forward, the market should closely monitor the magnitude of copper price fluctuations, the sustainability of downstream purchasing intensity, and the pace of imported supply arrivals.

Electrolytic manganese entered its traditional off-season in May and June 2026, with the market witnessing a loose supply-demand surplus and narrow price fluctuation ranges. Hit by sluggish downstream purchases, prices once corrected notably......

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

SMM News on June 25: Data Summary: As of Thursday, June 25, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions increased by 11,700 mt WoW to 206,000 mt, with total inventories up 75,900 mt YoY from 130,100 mt. In detail, in Shanghai, falling copper prices boosted downstream procurement, turning inventory from an increase to a decline; in Jiangsu, as prices pulled back, end-use demand improved and inventory also declined; in Guangdong, downstream consumption slowed mid-year, while smelters rushed to ship goods and deliveries to warehouses increased, causing inventory to continue rising. Looking ahead, on the supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic copper cathode are expected to increase in the short term; on the demand side, after a sharp decline in copper prices, downstream factories concentrated on settling prices and stockpiling. Currently, spot market supply is ample and purchasing sentiment is recovering, and next week, national copper social inventories are expected to maintain their destocking pace.

According to SMM statistics, both mill and social inventories experienced varying degrees of buildup. Total building materials inventory reached 8.0193 million mt, up 226,600 mt or 2.91% MoM, signaling the emergence of an inventory inflection point.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report] SS Futures Decline Consecutively; Spot Stainless Steel Traders Sell Actively at a Discount to Boost Shipments According to SMM on June 24, SS futures continued to trend lower and weaken. Nonferrous metals futures extended their decline, with SS moving down in tandem. Near the close, news emerged that Indonesia might raise its RKAB nickel ore quota, causing SHFE nickel and SS to pull back further. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,720 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the consecutive decline in SS futures, market sentiment was generally weak. To reduce their own inventories, spot traders had a strong willingness to sell, and selling at a discount became more frequent. Stainless steel spot quotes declined accordingly, but the sluggish trading remained hard to change. For the most-traded SS futures contract, at 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was quoted at 14,740 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 330-830 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coil average price in Wuxi remained unchanged; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with rough edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 25 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was quoted unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices experienced wild swings, as macro expectations outside China repeatedly disturbed the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the futures trend was dominated by macro factors, trading fluctuated with sentiment, and supply...