[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Peace Talks Conclude, Silver Prices Surge, Spot Premiums Widen but Transactions Remain Weak] SMM, June 15: The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding, geopolitical risk premiums pulled back, and silver opened up more than 6%. In the spot market, sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling strengthened, premiums widened with the high end expanding, but actual transactions remained weak.

This week, lead concentrate TCs were generally flat. The weekly average TC for domestic Pb50 was 200 yuan/mt Pb, and for imported Pb60 it was -$145/dmt. During the week, TCs for standard ores held steady. Some enterprises that set prices at month-end or early in the month continued with previous prices. For silver-lead ores rich in copper and zinc, with non-payable metal content, transaction TCs were at a high level of around -2,900 yuan/mt Pb. For imported ores, smelters were willing to accept silver-lead ore TCs exceeding -$200/dmt, driven by payable metal credits and blending needs. Also, although silver prices fell to around 15,000 yuan/mt during the week, the decline was brief and did not form an absolute low. Combined with high silver recovery rates at lead smelters, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates has not yet been lowered.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Silver Price Corrective Rebound, Spot Silver Transactions at Parity Await Guidance] SMM June 12 - The US-Iran tensions have eased, and silver prices rebounded slightly. Affected by the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality, transactions in the spot market were concentrated at parity. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to downstream purchase willingness.

[Bullish Sentiment Prevailed in the Market This Week, with Solid Support for the Silicon Metal Bottom]: On the supply side, operating rates at northern silicon enterprises were basically stable, while those in Sichuan and Yunnan slowly improved. However, the pace of overall supply release was limited, with insufficient incremental elasticity. Combined with demand side keeping pace, supply and demand in the industry were broadly balanced recently. Recently, bullish sentiment dominated the market, providing strong support for the silicon metal bottom. Silicon metal prices were constrained in both upside and downside room and may continue to move sideways within a narrow range. Watch for fluctuations in macro expectations and changes in the PV industry, which may cause marginal disturbance to silicon metal.

The price spread between the SGE TD price and the SHFE August contract remained in the 40-50 yuan/kg range this week. As of Thursday, premiums of mainstream quotations for standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market rose to a range from parity to a slight premium, with transaction quotes mostly landing within the SGE TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg range. Silver prices plunged this week due to macro headwinds and the renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Following the plunge, downstream inquiries became relatively active, while upstream smelters showed low willingness to sell due to the low prices. On the inventory side, downstream consumption recovered WoW as prices continued to fall, and social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen underwent overall destocking.

[Price Review] This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic futures markets plunging sharply in tandem. The price center moved notably lower WoW, hitting a new low in nearly two months. The non-farm payrolls data triggered the first heavy sell-off: on June 5, the US May non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000; data for the prior two months were revised up by a combined 93,000, and the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes surged sharply, and silver immediately suffered a heavy blow. On June 10, the US May CPI data came out, up 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The inflation data further cemented market expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. Paired with renewed deterioration in the US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed was expected to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. Industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingots against TD mainstream quotations in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW; mainstream quotations were generally at parity or with slight premiums, and most transactions settled in the range from parity against SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiry activity was relatively active. Inventory side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to falling prices, so social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen destocked overall. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened from 63.8 a week ago to 67.2, highlighting silver's greater weakness relative to gold under sustained macro pressure. [Important Data] Bearish US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, with labor market resilience surprising to the upside. US May CPI up 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, as inflationary pressures re-emerged. After taking office as Fed Chairman, Warsh set a clear hawkish tone, and subsequent official remarks continued to send tightening signals. India's silver import control policy remained in place, weighing on physical consumption demand. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency until year-end; 12 large mines have already implemented staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline by 5%–8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, providing some floor support for silver prices. [What to Watch] June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh post-meeting press conference (key event) June 18: US May retail sales data June 20: University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment index Key focus: Fed official speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a pattern of hovering at lows and seeking a bottom next week, remaining under an overall high macro pressure environment. The Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, with the market closely watching Wash's speech content and the Fed's latest guidance on the interest rate path. If the Fed releases a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may dip further; if the meeting outcome leans dovish, silver prices could see a rebound from oversold conditions. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream purchases have slightly recovered, pressure from spot selling at lows in the market has eased somewhat, and the social inventory of spot silver ingots is destocking overall. Since most enterprises remain cautious amid heavy fear of price declines, mainstream traded spot premiums are expected to remain in a range of parity to a 10 yuan/kg premium over SGE TD, and the market is unlikely to quickly shift to higher premiums in the near term.