SMM News, May 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.19%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.1%. SHFE lead rose 0.54%, and SHFE zinc edged up. SHFE tin rose 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.11%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.04%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.28%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.59%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.38%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.19%, rebar fell 0.38%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.76%, and stainless steel rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.07%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.78%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.06%. LME aluminum rose 0.15%, and LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.34%. LME nickel rose 0.16%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.43%, and COMEX silver fell 0.33%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.13%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.61%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.34%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.51%, closing at 3,032.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,570 yuan/mt, down 955 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,465 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Supply-demand relationship expected to further improve, prices expected to continue operating within a stable range] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that prices in April continued the mild rebound trend since H2 last year, releasing positive signals of improving supply-demand relationship and optimized market order. Although the trajectory of international energy prices remained uncertain, China had a solid foundation for maintaining overall price stability. As a series of macro policies are implemented in depth, the supply-demand relationship in the market is expected to further improve, and prices are projected to continue operating within a stable range. [NDRC: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected for new-type power grid construction] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed strengthening the planning and construction of "six networks," including water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, and logistics networks. On May 22, the NDRC held a press conference. At the conference, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected to be directed toward planning and constructing a number of power transmission corridors and inter-provincial power supply projects, optimizing ultra-high voltage and extra-high voltage AC networks by layer and zone, and implementing a number of urban distribution network renewal projects, power grid renovation projects in weak areas, and rural grid frequent outage remediation projects. Li Chao stated that based on comprehensive analysis, the national peak electricity load this summer is expected to reach approximately 1.6 billion kW , an increase of about 90 million kW over last year, equivalent to adding the electricity load of an entire Henan Province. [NDRC: Guiding domestic large models to intensify efforts in adapting to domestic computing chips] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated at a press conference on May 22 that core technologies and application demands in the artificial intelligence sector are both exhibiting rapid growth. We have consistently adhered to systematic planning, sector-specific policies, openness and sharing, and safe and controllable development, promoting the broad and deep integration of artificial intelligence with all industries and sectors of the economy and society, guiding domestic large models to intensify efforts in adapting to domestic computing chips, and ensuring autonomous controllability, development for good, and steady long-term progress while maintaining rapid development, so that all people can share in the fruits of AI development. This is also a prominent characteristic of China's AI development. The PBOC conducted 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.25. The White House stated that the swearing-in ceremony for new Fed Chairman Warsh will be held at 11:00 AM on May 22 (23:00 Beijing time). Fed's Barkin stated that the ability of enterprises and consumers to absorb the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to "look through" higher inflation without choosing to raise interest rates. In remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina on Thursday, Barkin stated: "After inflation has been above our 2% target for more than five consecutive years, we need to consider whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks could cause the 'anchor' of inflation expectations to loosen."He also stated: "For me, the key question is how much more pressure enterprises, consumers, and inflation expectations can withstand." Barkin also expressed growing concern that the US may have entered a "new phase" in which supply shocks will become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trade system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He also noted that, for now, the US Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 85.4%, with a 14.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike. In addition, Nomura Securities expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026, having previously forecast interest rate cuts in September and December this year. (Jin Shi Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US May one-year inflation expectations final reading, the US April Conference Board Leading Index month-over-month, the UK May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK April public sector net borrowing, UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales month-over-month, the Germany June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-over-year final reading, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, Japan April core CPI year-over-year, and Canada March retail sales month-over-month. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.21% and Brent up 1.7%. Fluctuating US-Iran developments affected oil price movements, with market doubts over whether US-Iran negotiations could make progress supporting oil prices. Four sources said that seven major OPEC+ producing countries will most likely agree to a modest raise in the July production target when they meet on June 7, although supply from several of them remains disrupted by the Iran war. The sources said the monthly production target set by the seven core OPEC+ members is expected to be raised by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. In Q1 2026, OPEC+ maintained production unchanged, but since April, the group has raised its monthly production target despite the ongoing war. However, since the UAE's exit from the organization in May, the monthly production increase has been scaled back. Analysts and delegates believe that while the UAE's departure has weakened the organization's influence over the market, it may strengthen its internal cohesion. Additionally, sources said that two other OPEC+ meetings scheduled for June 7 are not expected to result in any policy adjustments. IEA Executive Director Birol said on Thursday that the arrival of the summer peak fuel demand season, combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and continued inventory drawdowns, could push the oil market into a "danger zone" during July-August, though he did not elaborate further. In his speech, Birol said the world was in a state of oil surplus when the supply crisis triggered by the Iran war broke out, which helped cushion the impact, but inventories are now steadily declining. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Silicon Metal Prices Shift to Move Sideways, Attention on Operating Rate Changes on Both Supply and Demand Sides]: At the beginning of the week, spot silicon metal prices edged lower in a narrow range before shifting to move sideways. As of May 21, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. The futures market center shifted lower WoW. On Thursday, the most-traded SI2609 contract closed at 8,440 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt WoW, with open interest at 308,000 lots, a WoW decrease of 7,000 lots. In terms of market transactions, as futures weakened at the beginning of the week, some downstream buyers and traders increased their rigid demand purchases, and the market transaction center moved lower WoW. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand of silicon metal are expected to increase in June. Supply side, the main driver is the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season. Demand side, the main factor is production resumption expectations of individual polysilicon enterprises.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Amid Multiple Factors, Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies in Mid- and Downstream Silicone Market] This week, the transaction center of China's silicone DMC market held stable, with the mainstream transaction range at 14,800-15,000 yuan/mt. Regional quotations, mainstream quotations from monomer enterprises in Shandong remained at 14,800 yuan/mt, while mainstream quotations in other regions held at 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt. Influenced by the price adjustment moves of top-tier players last week, overall market sentiment weakened somewhat, with wait-and-see sentiment among mid- and downstream enterprises on the increase, new order transactions remaining mediocre, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensifying.

SMM News, May 21: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper gained 1.33%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.33%, SHFE lead climbed 1.55%, SHFE zinc advanced 1.47%, and SHFE tin surged 3.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.57%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.39%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 0.37%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.18%, the most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.35%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.5%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil gained 0.23%, and stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.33%, and the most-traded coke contract was flat at 1,774.5 yuan/mt. Overseas base metals: as of 11:32, LME metals generally fell. LME copper dropped 0.15%, LME aluminum was flat at 3,629 yuan/mt, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc fell 0.1%, LME tin declined 0.53%, and LME nickel dropped 0.92%. Precious metals: as of 11:32, COMEX gold rose 0.12% and COMEX silver fell 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 0.89% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.85%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.74% and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.47%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 7.66% to 2,957.5 points. As of 11:32 on May 21, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Nickel: On May 21, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -600 to 500 yuan/mt. Macro front China: [NDRC: To improve policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of sci-tech innovation, and business regulation] Li Hui, Director of the Private Economy Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the NDRC will better leverage its coordination function in promoting private economy development, organize and carry out specific measures outlined in the action plan for safeguarding the private economy through the rule of law, and strengthen the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law. The NDRC will improve supporting systems and refine policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of sci-tech innovation, and business regulation. It will continue to work with relevant departments to publish typical cases to illustrate the law through cases, conduct assessments of policy implementation effectiveness, promote direct and swift access to enterprise-friendly policies, and guide enterprises in enhancing their governance capabilities. [China's Enterprise Credit Index Reached 162.41 in April This Year, Maintaining a Positive Trend] According to the State Administration for Market Regulation, China's Enterprise Credit Index stood at 162.41 in April this year, up 0.15 points from March, with enterprise credit levels maintaining a positive trend. In April, the top 5 industries by credit index ranking were finance, electricity/heat/gas and water production and supply, education, manufacturing, and water conservancy/environment and public facilities management. Compared with the previous month, the indices for information transmission/software and information technology services, finance, and health and social work showed relatively notable increases, achieving positive growth for three consecutive months, with credit development trends continuing to improve. (CCTV News) [Qiushi Commentary Article: How to Thoroughly Address "Involution-Style" Competition in Manufacturing] The article pointed out that thoroughly addressing "involution-style" competition requires institutional innovation to drive competition toward quality upgrading. Only when government behavior is regulated and market mechanisms are streamlined can enterprises shift from low-price disorderly competition to value-based competition. A unified national market should be built to break down market segmentation, policies hindering fair competition should be resolutely eliminated, outdated capacity should be phased out in an orderly manner in accordance with laws and regulations to prevent "bad money driving out good," and competitive enterprises should be allocated resources commensurate with their competitiveness. Performance assessment reform should be used to correct government behavior, shifting assessment focus toward "quality" indicators such as development quality, technological innovation, and industrial coordination, aligning local government incentives with high-quality development, and curbing the impulse for homogeneous investment attraction at the source. Evaluation mechanism reform should be used to rectify competitive behavior, reversing the "price-only" tendency, establishing comprehensive evaluation mechanisms centered on technology, quality, and service, making premium quality at premium prices a market consensus, and guiding resources toward enterprises with strong innovation capabilities and high product value-added. The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:32, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.19. The US Fed meeting minutes showed that participants anticipated elevated energy prices would continue to exert upward pressure on headline inflation in the near term. Participants generally expected that the impact of tariffs on core goods inflation would gradually diminish over the course of this year. However, some participants noted that tariff rates could rise further above current levels, resulting in greater upward pressure on inflation. Several participants emphasized that, after inflation had remained above 2% for several consecutive years, elevated inflation could have a greater influence on wage- and price-setting decisions. Almost all participants noted that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period, or even if the conflict ended, oil and other commodity prices could remain elevated for longer than expectations. In such a scenario, participants anticipated that factors such as supply chain disruptions, elevated energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices would continue to push inflation higher. The vast majority of participants noted that the time required for inflation to return to the Committee's 2% target could be longer than they had previously expected, and that risks had increased. The US Fed meeting minutes showed that regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants generally believed that persistently elevated inflation and uncertainty about the duration and economic impact of the Middle East conflict could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than expectations. Some participants emphasized that it might be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once clear signs emerged that the pullback trend in inflation had steadily resumed, or signs of greater softness in the labour market appeared. However, most participants noted that if inflation remained persistently above 2%, some tightening measures might be necessary. To address this scenario, many participants indicated that they would prefer to remove language from the post-meeting statement that implied the Committee's future rate decisions might lean toward easing. Participants noted that monetary policy was not predetermined and that future policy decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 97.3%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at 2.7%. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 87.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at 2.4%, and a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at 10.4%. (Jin Shi Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, US April annualized housing starts, US April building permits, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary reading, France May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Germany May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK May Services PMI preliminary reading, UK May CBI Industrial Orders balance, and Australia April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, attention should also be paid to the following: Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech, and China's refined oil products were set to enter a new round of price adjustment window. Crude oil: As of 11:32, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.83%. Supply concerns driven by market worries over the uncertain prospects of a US-Iran peace deal continued to support oil prices. In addition, declining US crude oil inventory also lent support to oil prices. EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 7.863 million barrels to 445 million barrels, a decline of 1.74%. The weekly EIA crude oil inventory drawdown for the week ending May 15 was the largest since the week of February 13, 2026. A research report from CITIC Securities noted that global oil inventory was declining sharply, intensifying the risk of energy shortages. The US-Israel-Iran conflict disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, causing global oil inventory to plummet at a record pace and heightening the risk of summer energy shortages. The market temporarily cushioned the pressure by relying on previously surplus inventory, exemptions from Russian oil sanctions, and strategic petroleum reserve releases by multiple countries, while high oil prices also triggered a contraction in global oil demand. International oil prices are currently fluctuating at elevated levels, US refined product prices have hit multi-year highs, oil supplies in multiple energy-importing regions in Asia are on the verge of shortages, dragging down regional economic growth. Oil prices may still have significant upside room, and accelerating the development of renewable energy has become a long-term measure for countries to guard against energy risks. Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) of the UAE, said on the 20th that the UAE was building an east-west oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The project was nearly 50% complete and is expected to be completed and operational by 2027. According to the UAE's Gulf News, Al Jaber said at an online event hosted by the US think tank Atlantic Council that a large volume of global energy transportation still relied on a few critical maritime chokepoints, and the UAE hoped to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and enhance the security of energy exports through this project. (Xinhua) Goldman Sachs stated that as the Middle East war continued and supply remained constrained, global crude oil and refined product inventory was being depleted at a record pace this month. Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report dated May 20 that since the beginning of May, visible inventory had been declining at a record rate of 8.7 million barrels per day, nearly double the average pace since the outbreak of the conflict. They stated, "The physical market continues to tighten, and oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated to remain at only 5% of normal levels." Goldman Sachs analysts noted that two-thirds of the inventory decline in May was driven by a reduction in so-called "oil on water," with exports falling more than imports. The import slump is now "spreading from Asia to Europe," they noted, with European jet fuel imports 60% below the 2025 average. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap and Alloy Imports Both Dropped Sharply, Alloy Exports Hit Single-Month Record High] Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 73,500 mt, down 15.4% YoY and down 12.9% MoM; cumulative imports from January to April were 313,900 mt, down 14.6% YoY. Exports side, April unwrought aluminum alloy exports reached 46,300 mt, hitting a single-month export record high, up 179.7% YoY and up 68.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to April were 111,200 mt, up 58.1% YoY. Since March, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts and ex-China supply disruptions, overseas aluminum alloy ingot prices continued to rise, with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets becoming increasingly inverted.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Generally Stable with Slight Fall amid Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday, the ADC12 market overall operated in a generally stable with slight fall manner. Some enterprises followed with slight declines driven by weakening aluminum prices, while others maintained a wait-and-see stance with stable pricing due to high costs and tight compliant supply. Supply-demand structure perspective, demand side performance remained mediocre, suppressing price rise; however, the supply side saw marginal tightening due to factors such as invoice shortages, import contraction, and phased production cuts, providing certain support for prices. Against this backdrop, ADC12 prices are expected to continue to move sideways in the short term, with relatively limited downside room.