Stable market leadership, faster N-type adoption, and resilient Ex-China demand lift global PV module shipments to approximately 260 GW in the first half of 2026.

N-type expansion, Ex-China demand, and growing concentration among specialized manufacturers reshape the PV cell shipment landscape in the first half of 2026.

SMM, August 3: Metal market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.13%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.4%. SHFE lead fell 1.25%. SHFE zinc rose 1.02%. SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel fell 1.91%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.21%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.34%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.02%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.86%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 7.11%. Ferrous metals all declined. Iron ore fell 2.44%, rebar fell 0.86%, HRC fell 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.16%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.04%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.37%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper rose 0.17%, LME aluminum fell 0.3%, LME lead fell 0.16%, LME zinc rose 0.78%. LME tin fell 0.27%. LME nickel fell 1.42%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold rose 0.27%, COMEX silver rose 0.92%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.57%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.48%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 0.52%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.21%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight rate futures contract rose 2.94% to 1,801 points. As of 11:48 on August 3, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 100 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,815 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 105,695 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory ended a three-session decline... Macro Front China: [China's July RatingDog manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, marking the eighth consecutive month in expansion territory] China’s July RatingDog manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, down 0.8 percentage points from June, extending its expansion streak to an eighth consecutive month and tying with the longest expansion run in five years. Overall, manufacturing expansion continued in July, but the pace slowed. New orders continued to grow, cost pressure further eased, and new export orders returned to expansion, releasing a positive signal. However, purchasing activity declined somewhat, and the inventory of input goods accumulated earlier by enterprises kept rising, which are risk points to monitor going forward. (RatingDog) [The CSRC and Hong Kong SFC Jointly Announce New Measures to Deepen Pragmatic Cooperation and Close Collaborative Development Between the Two Markets] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong jointly announced a series of new measures to further deepen pragmatic cooperation and close collaborative development between the two markets. Covering multiple areas including listing and financing, index cooperation, futures products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), internationalization of financial institutions, green finance, and professional qualification facilitation, the specific measures include: continuing to support eligible domestic enterprises to list and raise funds in Hong Kong; supporting index companies in both markets to strengthen cooperation and launch more indices based on Chinese assets, enhancing the international influence of Chinese indices and assets; deepening cooperation in futures markets and supporting Hong Kong in launching more RMB-denominated and settled futures products; supporting institutions in both markets to launch more ETF products based on the two markets and aligned with China’s modern industrial system, and implementing a fast-track registration mechanism for regular equity ETF products, among others. (Jin10 Data APP) [Hong Kong Exchange Officially Launches 5-Year RMB Government Bond Futures] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) today (August 3) officially launched the 5-year RMB government bond futures. As the only government bond futures contract product in the offshore market, it aims to meet the growing interest rate risk management and trading needs of overseas investors. The launch of the 5-year government bond futures is an important step in promoting Hong Kong as an offshore RMB hub and risk management center. (CCTV News) [The PBOC's Open Market Operations Resulted in a Net Withdrawal of 562.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 63 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations and 300 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations today. With 325.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos maturing today, the net withdrawal for the day was 562.5 billion yuan. 》 On August 3, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7898 per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 99.75. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting is 26.4%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike stands at 73.6%. For the October meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.9%, with a 62.1% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 17.9% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. According to the New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate decision meetings of the Federal Reserve, a move that could cause significant shockwaves and would mark the most significant change in the Fed's operations in recent years. Currently, the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh raised the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. According to the sources, at this week's meeting, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must adhere to regarding the minimum number of meetings required annually, as well as the timetable for such adjustments. It was said that Warsh asked officials to provide him with their views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Japan's Ministry of Finance said the intervention was aimed at addressing recent excessive, disorderly movements in the yen. It will not hesitate to conduct further foreign exchange intervention with the United States, and plans to use the Fed's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility in the future. JPMorgan said that the U.S. Treasury Department's liquidity resources available to support further coordinated currency intervention with Japan are limited, but its firepower could be significantly expanded if officials take more unconventional measures. Strategists including Junya Tanase wrote in a report that as of June, the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund held around €13 billion in euro-denominated assets and $25.5 billion in assets, which pales in comparison to Japan's intervention scale of roughly $35 billion to $60 billion between 2022 and 2026. JPMorgan noted that the Treasury could significantly boost its firepower by converting its holdings of International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) into dollars, and by swapping foreign currency assets into dollars. In that scenario, the Treasury could theoretically mobilize up to around $187 billion, and the participation of the Fed could effectively double the scale of any intervention. However, they wrote: "We do not think the Treasury has unlimited capacity to intervene, as the Exchange Stabilization Fund's resources are finite and new funds might require congressional appropriation." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland July CPI m/m, France July manufacturing PMI final, Germany July manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI final, UK July manufacturing PMI final, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US July ISM manufacturing PMI, US June construction spending m/m, and other data. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices on both exchanges fell sharply, with WTI down 5.52% and Brent down 4.9%. Oil prices tumbled sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, following Trump’s announcement that the US and Iran would resume negotiations on Monday, significantly raising market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wall Street CN) The decline in oil prices was driven by two major factors. First, the news of the US-Iran negotiations resuming directly boosted expectations for the restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Second, major OPEC+ members again slightly raised production quotas, further intensifying supply-side pressure. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Telegram on Sunday that negotiations between Iran and Oman are in their final stage, with both sides discussing new shipping routes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei added in an interview with Iran’s state television that the relevant negotiations do not concern the opening or closing of the strait. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Green and Low-Carbon Industrial Development, making systematic deployment in areas such as green energy utilization, carbon reduction in key industries, hydrogen industry cultivation, advanced equipment promotion, and technological innovation, to further increase the application proportion of clean energy like green electricity and green hydrogen in the industrial sector. The plan proposes that, on the premise of complying with national industrial layout requirements, regions with abundant green energy be supported to orderly undertake industries such as aluminum, steel, petrochemicals and chemicals, PV, and power batteries, extend the green energy industry chain, promote the large-scale application of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, and enhance the on-site consumption capacity of green energy. At the same time, a number of zero-carbon factories and zero-carbon computing facilities will be built, exploring replicable and scalable construction models. Industrial green microgrids are also listed as a key development direction. The plan proposes promoting the integrated application of technologies such as PV, wind power, heat pumps, new-type energy storage, hydrogen energy, waste heat, pressure, and gas, and smart energy management, to facilitate the efficient complementary utilization of various energy sources in the industrial sector. In terms of key industry transformation, the steel industry will accelerate the concentration of steel scrap and green electricity resources to electric furnace short-process steelmaking enterprises, and promote the industrialisation of low-carbon metallurgical technologies such as hydrogen-rich, oxygen-rich, and carbon-circulating blast furnaces and pure hydrogen direct reduction. The petrochemical and chemical industries will orderly expand the application proportion of green energy and low-carbon raw materials such as green electricity, green hydrogen, and biomass, and implement process upgrades like new-type catalysis, green synthesis, and high-efficiency separation, to drive the upgrade of calcium carbide method PVC production towards a mercury-free direction. The plan clarifies that hydrogen energy industry should be developed according to local conditions, with breakthroughs in key technologies for clean and low-carbon hydrogen production and application, promotion of hydrogen energy comprehensive application pilot projects, and expansion of the use of clean and low-carbon hydrogen in areas such as industry and transportation. In terms of new energy transportation equipment, the policy will support the development of ships powered by batteries, methanol, and hydrogen, and accelerate the application of new energy in inland waterway vessels; at the same time, orderly develop new energy aircraft such as electric and hydrogen-powered ones, and promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel in domestic civil aircraft. The promotion of energy-saving equipment will also be further intensified. The plan proposes accelerating the R&D and application of advanced products such as high-efficiency energy-saving motors, transformers, industrial heat pumps, cooling and heating equipment, water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, and information and communication equipment, and strengthening the coordination and matching between energy-saving equipment and related systems. Focusing on cutting-edge technological innovation, the plan will prioritize technologies such as hydrogen production from renewable energy, high-efficiency crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cells, high-efficiency thin-film batteries, all-solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, green metallurgy, inert anodes, flexible electrolysis, kiln hydrogen calcination, direct crude oil to chemicals, and carbon capture, storage, and utilization. In addition, relevant departments will build a number of pilot-scale verification platforms for clean and low-carbon hydrogen, low-carbon and zero-carbon process reengineering, and high-performance water treatment membranes, and through open and shared pilot-scale service capabilities, reduce the market verification costs of low-carbon technologies. In terms of talent cultivation, the plan encourages qualified universities to set up disciplines and majors related to green design, green manufacturing, hydrogen energy, etc., build industry-education integration training bases, explore the establishment of new professions such as green factory management, and accelerate the cultivation of compound talents with both green low-carbon technology and management capabilities.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap Supports ADC12 Prices, Off-Season Caps Gains] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 23,115 yuan/mt, and during the night session, it reached a high of 23,320 yuan/mt and a low of 23,115 yuan/mt, closing at 23,270 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis: US Lyten's "Dip-Buying Acquisition" of Northvolt's European Assets Lithium-Sulfur Solid-State Battery Global Layout] Through successive acquisitions of the core assets of bankrupt European battery giant Northvolt, Lyten obtained 16 GWh of existing capacity, Europe's largest battery R&D center, and over 100 GWh of expansion space at a steep discount far below valuation. Meanwhile, leveraging its lithium-sulfur battery technology built on the patented 3D Graphene platform, Lyten's material system completely eliminates nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite, forging a technological path entirely different from traditional solid-state batteries.