Acerinox, Spain's largest stainless steel producer, said EU imports fell 31% year on year in the first half of 2026 even though end-use demand remained subdued, pointing to policy rather than consumption as the driver. CBAM took effect on January 1, and the European Commission's revised trade defence measures came into force on July 1, cutting annual quotas by 55% and applying a 50% tariff on out-of-quota volumes. CEO Bernardo Velazquez said the measures are needed to offset surplus exports from overcapacity countries and restore European competitiveness. With only one month of the new quota regime reflected in H1, the full displacement effect on Asian mills shipping into Europe should become clearer in Q3 and Q4 arrivals data.

[SMM Analysis: Why Can India Procure Overseas Copper Scrap at High Prices Over the Long Term?]

[SMM Analysis: High Imports Yet Lower TCs: Why China’s Copper Concentrate Market Is Getting Tighter amid Rising Purchases] In H1 2026, China’s copper concentrate imports stayed high but edged down YoY, with the pace of imports slowing noticeably in Q2 compared with Q1. At the same time, new and expanded smelting capacity continued to come onstream, and growth in copper concentrate demand outpaced the increase in import supply, driving spot TCs further down. On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) fell to -$154.76/dmt, further highlighting the contradiction of high imports coexisting with deeply negative TCs. Looking ahead to H2, stockpiling, feeding, and production ramp-up at three new smelting projects in China will add to rigid procurement demand. Higher production from Oyu Tolgoi, a seasonal recovery in South American mine output, and shipments of some stockpiled ore are expected to support a QoQ increase in China’s copper concentrate imports. However, the resumption of production at Grasberg will still take time, and local smelting capacity in Indonesia and Africa continues to absorb domestically produced concentrates, meaning that increases in overseas mine production may not proportionally translate into accessible supply for China. China’s copper concentrate imports are expected to remain high in H2 and rebound somewhat from H1, but the global supply-demand “hard deficit” for copper concentrates is unlikely to ease in the short term, and freely tradable, suitable supply will stay tight. In the absence of large-scale, sustained production cuts on the smelting side, spot TCs are more likely to show an L-shaped pattern of low-level operation with intermittent rebounds, and the configuration of rising imports alongside negative TCs will persist.

SMM July 27 News: Metal Market: At the midday break, domestic base metals were mixed. SHFE copper rose 0.31%, while SHFE aluminum edged lower. SHFE lead fell 1.11%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin rose 1.86%. SHFE nickel fell 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.13%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.19%. Lithium carbonate’s most-traded contract rose 0.86%. Silicon metal’s most-traded contract rose 0.24%. Polysilicon’s most-traded futures contract rose 0.15%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.33%, and HRC rose 0.55%. Stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.62%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.87%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.49%, while LME aluminum fell 0.27%. LME tin and LME zinc each rose within 0.5%. LME lead edged lower. LME nickel fell 0.32%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.42% and COMEX silver rose 1.1%. In the domestic market: SHFE gold rose 0.87%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. In addition, at the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.31%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.22%. At the midday break, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 3.02% to 2,750 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:40, July 27: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, cooling geopolitical tensions temporarily; oil prices tumbled, and inflation and rate-hike expectations eased, while precious metals rebounded. The spot market sustained parity deals, with the weak supply-demand pattern persisting. …… 》Click for details Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in 1H; Electronics-Related Sectors Posted Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, amid steady manufacturing growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points from Q1. Accelerating revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By major sector, mining and manufacturing profits grew 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 and 1.0 percentage points from Q1; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of the raw material manufacturing sector above designated size rose 71.7% YoY, boosting overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 8.8 percentage points. From an industry perspective, driven by improving demand for non-ferrous metal products such as copper and aluminum, profits of the non-ferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, boosting overall profit growth by 4.7 percentage points; driven by higher prices of products in the petroleum industry chain, the petroleum processing sector swung from losses to a profit YoY, and profits of the chemical sector rose 67.8%. The PBOC conducted 325.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 398.5 billion yuan of reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of MLF matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.26 to 101.22. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. The probability of unchanged rates through September is 19.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 25.2%. Data: Today will see the release of data including Germany's July IFO Business Climate Index, the UK's July CBI Distributive Trades Survey balance, the US June durable goods orders MoM, and the US July Dallas Fed New Orders Index. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 4.97% and Brent down 3.93%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions eased slightly, and oil prices fell sharply at the open on Monday as traders assessed Middle East supply risks. With the US-Iran conflict spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, Brent crude has surged about 30% this month, briefly breaking above $100 per barrel last week. The conflict, now nearing the end of its fifth month, has heightened concerns about a global inflation shock as the global fuel market has lost idle capacity while the war drives up prices, and refined product prices have jumped. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

UK Minister for Artificial Intelligence Narayan said that chip manufacturing and drones would be at the heart of new UK Prime Minister Burnham’s efforts to drive the country’s “reindustrialisation,” stressing that these technologies would take a “top priority” position in the new prime minister’s plan. However, Narayan said the government rejects the “techno-utopianism” of blindly worshipping technology and will address the “substantial risks” AI poses to employment and national security through regulation and other measures. On the US government’s unexpected decision last month to impose export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos model, Narayan pointed out that AI “has become a central fault line in geopolitics, and the way to address this situation must be to build our own capabilities, thereby gaining a voice and leverage.”

[7.27 Morning Briefing] The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year tenor via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged during the night session, but rebounded slightly by the morning close to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventories have continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices; meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised concerns over sulfur supply disruptions, and nickel prices are holding up well in the short term.