On March 25, the groundbreaking ceremony for the “New-Type Silver Paste Product Intelligent Manufacturing Base Project” of Shanghai Silver Paste Technology Co., Ltd. was held. It is expected to reach full production in January 2030, when it will form an annual production capacity of 650 mt of PV silver paste, achieve annual output value of 5 billion yuan, and generate annual tax revenue of over 24 million yuan. The new base will introduce internationally advanced R&D equipment and experimental facilities to realize automation, intelligence, and lean management throughout the entire production process, while simultaneously enhancing technological R&D capabilities, production efficiency, and product consistency.

Key Points: Silver extends its breakout above the 50-day MA as bullish momentum builds toward the February high of $92.20. A 31% drop in COMEX inventories fuels concerns over a growing physical supply crunch. Registered silver stocks fall below 90M oz, raising liquidity fears as open interest exceeds available metal fourfold.

Precious metal prices rebounded today, with multiple traders suspending quotations after selling out their inventories. Intraday transactions were primarily driven by limited spot quotations from smelters and some suppliers in the Shenzhen market liquidating their holdings. In Shanghai, suppliers reported small transactions at a premium of 2,700-3,000 yuan/kg against TD, while some suppliers quoted premiums of 2,100-2,400 yuan/kg against the Shanghai silver futures 2604 contract. Smelters in regions such as Henan and Guangdong expressed concerns about market demand, noting that large transactions at high premiums were relatively difficult. Some manufacturers reported transactions at premiums of 2,400-2,500 yuan/kg against TD. Downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and market quotations varied significantly. With limited circulating spot cargoes in the spot market, some suppliers showed reduced willingness to sell, leading to scarce quotations. Some investment and industrial demand cautiously bought the dip. Overall, spot market transactions were limited today, presenting a situation of nominal prices without actual trading.

Silver prices held up well today, with the backwardation structure of the SHFE silver 2602-2604 contracts continuing to widen. Spot market supply remained tight domestically, and some traders mentioned difficulties in picking up goods from TD long position deliveries at the Gold Exchange. After state-owned smelters completed month-end inventory clearance, quoted spot supplies in the market decreased. Following rapid trades in the morning session where Shanghai silver ingot suppliers raised their premiums against TD to 800-1,000 yuan/kg, spot market premiums against TD generally rose above 1,000 yuan/kg. Some suppliers quoted premiums of 1,000 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. In the Shenzhen market, purchase quotes for silver materials through jewelry channels with small transaction volumes increased to 1,500-1,800 yuan/kg, showing significant disparities in spot market quotes. Sellers in the silver spot market were reluctant to sell, with only small purchases from rigid industrial demand. Some silver powder and silver nitrate enterprises suspended order-taking and adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach due to the sharp rise in premiums. The tight spot supply and unusual price spread between futures contracts still pose a squeeze risk in the SHFE silver front-month futures contract. Downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, leading to thinner market transactions. Silver Prices Hold Up Well, Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Widens; Spot Market Supply Tight, Premiums Surge

During the day, precious metal prices were in the doldrums, with a backwardation structure initially emerging in the Shanghai silver futures price spread. In the spot market, some suppliers, after seeing a decline in inventory, raised their premiums and adopted a wait-and-see approach with reluctance to sell. In the Shanghai area, suppliers of national standard silver ingots quoted a premium of 35-40 yuan/kg against TD or a premium of 35-40 yuan/kg against the Shanghai silver futures 2512 contract. Suppliers of large-brand silver ingots quoted a premium of 40-45 yuan/kg against TD, also holding back sales and waiting. After the silver price pulled back, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. Smelters' ex-works offer premiums showed no significant adjustment compared to the previous day. Market wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, while spot cargo transactions improved slightly.

On the macro front, the US and China reached a basic consensus in economic and trade consultations, and with signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, market risk appetite warmed rapidly, short-term safe-haven demand declined, and precious metal prices pulled back. Additionally, US stocks and the US dollar rose in tandem. This week, the silver leasing rate in the London market returned to below 5%. As ETFs reduced holdings, India's Diwali demand season ended, and silver ingots flowed into the London market, the extreme short squeeze came to an end. Regarding the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle, although the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Thursday, briefly boosting silver prices, Powell's remarks were hawkish. The meeting signaled uncertainty about a December rate cut while outlining a future monetary policy approach of "interest rate cuts + balance sheet expansion." Although the US dollar index rebounded, putting short-term pressure on silver, silver is still expected to benefit in the medium and long-term monetary easing cycle. Silver ingot inventory remains at a historically absolute low. If geopolitical tensions or inflation resurge, a short squeeze could likely start production again. [Economic Data] Bullish: US September unadjusted CPI YoY actual: 3%, previous: 2.90%, expected: 3.10% US October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final actual: 53.6, previous: 55, expected: 55 US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 24 actual: -6.858 million barrels, previous: -96.1, expected: -21.1 [Spot Market] In the domestic silver spot market, the tight liquidity situation gradually eased, and spot premiums declined. This week, the price spread between national standard silver ingots and large-factory silver ingots remained relatively small. In Shanghai, supplier premiums against TD fell to 30-45 yuan/kg, or premiums against the Shanghai silver futures SHF2512 contract decreased to 10-20 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, supplier premiums against the SHF2512 contract were 20 yuan/kg. After silver prices pulled back this week, downstream end-user enthusiasm for buying the dip rebounded, spot market circulating supply increased, and market turnover improved significantly WoW. PV silver paste: This week, the reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste was 7,160-7,307 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side finger was 10,774-10,995 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side busbar was 10,724-10,945 yuan/kg.