[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as delivery approaches, the inter-month backwardation has further widened to above 300-400 yuan/mt. The cost of contract rollover rises accordingly for suppliers, and their willingness to sell spot copper increases, significantly capping premiums against the front-month contract. Today, sentiment in sales and procurement improved somewhat from yesterday, but as the SHFE copper price center rose above 108,000 yuan/mt, downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, showing limited acceptance of high-priced offers. Meanwhile, some standard-quality copper has fallen to a discount of 10 yuan/mt to near parity, discounts for non-registered copper have widened further, and low-priced sources continue to weigh on mainstream standard-quality copper quotes. Overall, driven by the widening backwardation spread, increased willingness to sell among suppliers near delivery, and high copper prices suppressing consumption, the price center of Shanghai spot copper quotes against the 2608 contract is expected to continue to shift lower tomorrow, possibly showing a discount.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, with delivery approaching, Shanghai spot copper prices continue to rise, and the backwardation spread between nearby and next-month contracts shows signs of further widening. Some suppliers face the need to roll positions, which may drive an increase in low-priced available cargoes, exerting some pressure on spot premiums. Intraday, ahead of the weekend, some downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement, while some enterprises had demand for invoices. Market transactions improved from yesterday, and although suppliers still lowered their offers, the overall price reduction was limited. Supply side, currently available cargoes have not become significantly looser, and the circulation of some brands is limited, providing some support to the downside of premiums. Overall, against the backdrop of position rolling pressure near delivery, widening price spreads between futures contracts, and just-in-time procurement by downstream buyers, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to trade at a discount next week. The discount magnitude will depend on the movement of the spread and the flow of market supply.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,866/mt, after initially touching a high of $13,884/mt, it consolidated and pulled back, with the low hitting $13,808/mt, then rebounded to close at $13,848/mt, up 0.33%. Trading volume was 16,900 lots, and open interest fell to 248,000 lots, a decrease of 2,157 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,750 yuan/mt, hit a high of 106,220 yuan/mt and a low of 105,610 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 106,190 yuan/mt, up 0.07%. Trading volume was 26,800 lots, and open interest dropped to 202,100 lots, a decline of 3,851 lots from the previous trading day, also indicating bears reduced positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, as a new round of procurement cycle begins at the start of the month, restocking demand from some downstream buyers and traders may be released, providing some support for spot premiums. After low-priced cargoes were gradually traded during the day, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm increased notably. Quotes for standard-quality copper with invoices dated next month were basically maintained at a premium of 200 yuan/mt or higher, with limited willingness to sell at much lower prices. However, with copper prices still at elevated levels, the actual growth in downstream purchases remains to be seen, and the gradual arrivals of imported copper may also supplement spot supply. Overall, supported by the release of procurement demand at the start of the month and suppliers' efforts to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium next week. The overall center may stop falling and rebound, while attention needs to be paid to the volume of imported arrivals and their actual impact on supplementing market supply.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, with month-end approaching, downstream enterprises are expected to still primarily purchase based on rigid demand. The slight intraday uptick in SHFE copper prices today dampened market purchasing sentiment, and spot trading activity tomorrow is likely to decline compared with the previous trading day. According to SMM, current downstream purchase willingness is largely concentrated at premiums below 200 yuan/mt, with a significant psychological price gap between buyers and sellers. Suppliers may continue to lower offers to facilitate deals. Low-priced non-registered copper, due to its wide price spread with registered copper, has seen relatively decent transactions for some cargoes, but its boosting effect on overall demand is limited. As for inventory, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 69,500 mt, down 500 mt WoW from Monday; social inventory in Jiangsu at 21,200 mt, down 500 mt WoW from Monday. East China inventory saw slight destocking, still providing some support for spot premiums. However, the current decline in inventory is relatively limited, and offers for cargoes with invoices dated next month are relatively ample. Overall, against the backdrop of low inventory providing support, but weakening month-end consumption and strong downstream desire to bargain down prices, spot Shanghai copper prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, but the overall center may continue to shift slightly lower.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to persist, but the overall center may edge lower. During the day, some suppliers proactively cut prices to offload cargo, leading to a rapid decline in market quotes. Although some suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm after low-price deals, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 68,300 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW from Monday, and Jiangsu social inventory at 22,000 mt, up 2,400 mt WoW from Monday, marking the first slight inventory buildup in over three weeks. The low-inventory logic that previously supported higher premiums is weakening marginally. Coupled with downstream still dominated by just-in-time procurement, tomorrow's spot premiums are expected to still face downward pressure, but suppliers holding prices firm may limit the decline.