[Price Review] This week (6.22-6.25), silver prices plunged sharply under pressure at highs. Amid multiple macro bearish factors, the price center of precious metals shifted down markedly WoW. The US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. Coupled with a stronger US dollar index, precious metals faced clear suppression. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US would continue to adhere to a strong-dollar policy, and emphasized that countries such as Iran and Venezuela rejoining the dollar system in the future would help further consolidate the dollar’s international status. Affected by this, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On industrial demand, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market versus TD were basically flat WoW, and the transaction center remained mainly concentrated on the Gold Exchange TD at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, downstream enterprises’ procurement pace recovered somewhat, but overall it remained dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk; some enterprises showed pronounced fear-of-falling sentiment. On inventory, social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking. Maintenance at some smelters and delivery of export orders continued to draw down inventory, but inventory factors provided limited support to prices. On the gold/silver ratio, as of June 24, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold. [Key Data] Bearish: 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated a strong-dollar stance and said the dollar’s international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding. 2. The hawkish impact of the US Fed’s June meeting continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. 3. US Treasury yields stayed high, with real rates continuing to suppress precious metals, and asset-allocation preferences still tilted toward US dollar assets. [Near-Term Watch] June 26: US Q1 final GDP; June 27: US May core PCE price index; July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, remarks by US Fed officials, the US dollar index trend, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation. [Price Forecast] Next week, silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with the current core market logic centered on the US Fed’s policy path and the US dollar trend. After the June meeting, the US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment; together with Bessent’s recent strong-dollar remarks driving the US dollar index higher, and US Treasury yields staying high, silver faced multiple layers of macro pressure. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market maintained an overall just-in-time procurement pattern. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven correction landscape. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingots is expected to remain on par with or at a premium of up to 20 yuan/kg over the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract, with limited potential for an immediate further increase in premiums. Overall, against a backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed’s hawkish stance, silver remains under correction pressure in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with market attention on further guidance from US core PCE data on expectations.

Platinum prices came under heavy pressure and slumped today, as US Treasury Secretary remarks pushed the US dollar index higher, and combined with several foreign investment banks raising their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports, multiple bearish factors weighed on precious metals futures. During morning trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 settled at 389.55 yuan/g, down 4.39%. The inverted spread between the best ask price for platinum 9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2608 contract held near 7 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream quotations for platinum were at a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract. Premiums and discounts of mainstream quotations were basically flat compared with yesterday. Most traders' quotes leaned toward the higher end, while some suppliers offered small premiums against the most-traded contract but struggled to close deals. Upstream enterprises were less willing to sell due to low absolute prices, and downstream mainly conducted price negotiations for rigid demand purchases. Overall platinum transactions were normal today.

Today, SMM's 10:00 am Ag (T+D) price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 13,816 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks about Iran and Venezuela returning to the US dollar system further reinforced expectations for the dollar’s status as an international reserve currency. Combined with the market’s repricing of the Fed’s hawkish stance, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, exerting temporary pressure on precious metals. Major foreign investment banks all raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes in their latest reports, and precious metals faced interest rate headwinds, tumbling sharply. Spot market side, after silver continued to decline, downstream consumption recovered somewhat. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned toward the higher end, while downstream enterprises negotiated and purchased, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Some suppliers had limited willingness to sell at month-end. Low-priced supplies in other regions were largely cleared out, and quotes in Shenzhen were mostly around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against TD. Today, the market’s premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract remained at a discount of around 30 yuan/kg. Overall, the spot silver market premium has been relatively stable recently, and transactions have recovered somewhat as absolute prices continued to decline. The precious metals futures remain under macro pressure in the short term.

[SMM Daily Review: Strong US Dollar and Rate Hike Expectations Pressure Silver Prices, Spot Premium Stalemate, Sluggish Trading] SMM June 24 news, the US dollar index hit a new high in over a year, rate hike expectations continued to weigh on silver, and it suffered a technical breakdown. In the spot market, downstream players mainly stayed on the sidelines, trading was sluggish, and prices held steady with small premiums.

Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today, as the market was unable to correct expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the short term. Fed fund futures data showed that the market has priced in one rate hike this September and another in March 2027, making it difficult for precious metals futures to shake off the weak pattern. In the early session, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 settled at 405.00 yuan/g, down 2.85%. The inverted price spread between the Shanghai Gold Exchange Pt9995 best ask price and the GFEX PT2608 widened to around 8 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 2 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract, with premiums/discounts basically flat compared with yesterday. Most traders quoted at the higher end of the range, and as intraday prices continued to decline today, a small volume of transactions was also done near parity. Downstream users mainly engaged in rigid-demand stockpiling, and purchasing sentiment among some end-user enterprises recovered somewhat due to lower absolute prices. Overall platinum trading activity today recovered compared with yesterday.

With renewed divergence in the U.S.-Iran situation, Iran announced over the weekend the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting precious metals futures under renewed pressure. In morning trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2608 on the GFEX settled at 414 yuan/g, down 4.77%. The inverted price spread between the best-selling price of Pt9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2608 narrowed to around 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum stood at discounts of 2 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract. Despite a sharp drop in platinum futures, spot discounts narrowed only slightly. Most traders quoted at the higher end of the range but generally reported difficulty in closing deals. Downstream enterprises mainly engaged in rigid-demand stockpiling, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Some suppliers indicated no significant improvement in spot market consumption. Overall, platinum trading activity remained sluggish for the day.